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Gary Smith - How I trade for a living,

Random selection 'may' work, considering the upward bias of the market.

If there were over 1000 bulls running up a hill, and a mate and I had a wager for the average number of bulls we selected to get to the top first, I would think that if I was given an additional selection criteria where I could remove the lame and also the bulls running in the opposite direction ... then I may have a slight advantage if he only had a random choice.

To me, the success of random selection in a long only system, only reinforces the upward bias of the market ... that is a very good thing to know, however looking over 200 years of the stock market can tell you that as well.

BTW, don't get hung up on TT as being 'the' example of a trend trading system. I personally was not over excited when I tested it on the ASX300 ... however this was not the constituent list it was originally designed for.

<blockquote data-quote="weird" data-source="post: 200680" data-attributes="member: 2005">Gary Smith - How I trade for a living,Random selection &#039;may&#039; work, considering the upward bias of the market. If there were over 1000 bulls running up a hill, and a mate and I had a wager for the average number of bulls we selected to get to the top first,&nbsp; I would think that if I was given an additional selection criteria where I could remove the lame and also the bulls running in the opposite direction&nbsp; ... then I may have a slight advantage if he only had a random choice.To me, the success of&nbsp; random selection in a long only system, only reinforces the upward bias of the market ... that is a very good thing to know, however looking over 200 years of the stock market can tell you that as well.BTW, don&#039;t get hung up on TT as being &#039;the&#039; example of a trend trading system. I personally was not over excited when I tested it on the ASX300 ... however this was not the constituent list it was originally designed for.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="weird, post: 200680, member: 2005"] Gary Smith - How I trade for a living, Random selection 'may' work, considering the upward bias of the market. If there were over 1000 bulls running up a hill, and a mate and I had a wager for the average number of bulls we selected to get to the top first, I would think that if I was given an additional selection criteria where I could remove the lame and also the bulls running in the opposite direction ... then I may have a slight advantage if he only had a random choice. To me, the success of random selection in a long only system, only reinforces the upward bias of the market ... that is a very good thing to know, however looking over 200 years of the stock market can tell you that as well. BTW, don't get hung up on TT as being 'the' example of a trend trading system. I personally was not over excited when I tested it on the ASX300 ... however this was not the constituent list it was originally designed for. [/QUOTE]

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