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The comments below are my interpretation of Howard Bandy's posts to date on this thread.If you disagree with my conclusions then please let me know so that I can establish whether I am running with the pack or running in the opposite direction and consequently about to get trampled!For simplicity purposes I will relate to Australian stocks only.a)- 20 FPO's from the Materials Sector for the years 1998 & 1999.b)- the same 20 FPO's from the Materials Sector for the years 2000 & 2001. NB 1) The period for the two samples does not have to be the same length and 2) the choice leaves room to utilise additional in-sample & out-of-sample data sets before going live.c) "- Optimise the parameters (all) that will result in the highest objective function value - now I can see why you chose Amibroker!! NB This would not be referred to as curve fitting unless curve fitting was incorporated into your objective function.d)- If you are now confident with your model (system) then go live?e)- now I have a problem! If the model is not achieving the same results asbefore and I have been using, as my data set, all the shares in the MaterialsSector then where do I find my "out-of-sample data set" unless I stop tradingthis model for some time? Dynamic optimisation must use an in-sample data set.That's me done for now and I look forward to any feedback.
The comments below are my interpretation of Howard Bandy's posts to date on this thread.
If you disagree with my conclusions then please let me know so that I can establish whether I am running with the pack or running in the opposite direction and consequently about to get trampled!
For simplicity purposes I will relate to Australian stocks only.
a)
- 20 FPO's from the Materials Sector for the years 1998 & 1999.
b)
- the same 20 FPO's from the Materials Sector for the years 2000 & 2001.
NB 1) The period for the two samples does not have to be the same length and 2) the choice leaves room to utilise additional in-sample & out-of-sample data sets before going live.
c) "
- Optimise the parameters (all) that will result in the highest objective
function value - now I can see why you chose Amibroker!!
NB This would not be referred to as curve fitting unless curve fitting was incorporated into your objective function.
d)
- If you are now confident with your model (system) then go live?
e)
- now I have a problem! If the model is not achieving the same results as
before and I have been using, as my data set, all the shares in the Materials
Sector then where do I find my "out-of-sample data set" unless I stop trading
this model for some time? Dynamic optimisation must use an in-sample data set.
That's me done for now and I look forward to any feedback.
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