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Greetings --

There is exactly one non-optimized, non-walk-forward method of trading. That is to throw darts at the newspaper stock page.

Every time any of us decides to use one method rather than a second, we are ranking two alternatives and choosing among them. Why stop at two alternatives? Use an optimizer and look at thousands.

If we read about a system in a magazine, we have absolutely no way to know whether that system is robust or not. It could be highly curve-fit. If it appears in an advertisement, you can be certain that it is not the poorest performing example they could find. Simply because we are not doing the curve-fitting ourselves does not insure that a system is not curve-fit. On the other hand, if we do the development work ourselves, we can tell when a system is curve-fit and does not work out-of-sample.

Every time we make a real trade with real money we are performing a walk-forward test on out-of-sample test. Why wait until real money is on the table? Use good system development, testing, and validation techniques and gain some knowledge about how the system will work before calling the broker.

Thanks,
Howard
www.quantitativetradingsystems.com

<blockquote data-quote="howardbandy" data-source="post: 195821" data-attributes="member: 9179">Greetings --There is exactly one non-optimized, non-walk-forward method of trading.&nbsp; That is to throw darts at the newspaper stock page.Every time any of us decides to use one method rather than a second, we are ranking two alternatives and choosing among them.&nbsp; Why stop at two alternatives?&nbsp; Use an optimizer and look at thousands.If we read about a system in a magazine, we have absolutely no way to know whether that system is robust or not.&nbsp; It could be highly curve-fit.&nbsp; If it appears in an advertisement, you can be certain that it is not the poorest performing example they could find.&nbsp; Simply because we are not doing the curve-fitting ourselves does not insure that a system is not curve-fit.&nbsp; On the other hand, if we do the development work ourselves, we can tell when a system is curve-fit and does not work out-of-sample. Every time we make a real trade with real money we are performing a walk-forward test on out-of-sample test.&nbsp; Why wait until real money is on the table?&nbsp; Use good system development, testing, and validation techniques and gain some knowledge about how the system will work before calling the broker.Thanks,Howard<a href="http://www.quantitativetradingsystems.com" target="_blank">www.quantitativetradingsystems.com</a></blockquote>

[QUOTE="howardbandy, post: 195821, member: 9179"] Greetings -- There is exactly one non-optimized, non-walk-forward method of trading. That is to throw darts at the newspaper stock page. Every time any of us decides to use one method rather than a second, we are ranking two alternatives and choosing among them. Why stop at two alternatives? Use an optimizer and look at thousands. If we read about a system in a magazine, we have absolutely no way to know whether that system is robust or not. It could be highly curve-fit. If it appears in an advertisement, you can be certain that it is not the poorest performing example they could find. Simply because we are not doing the curve-fitting ourselves does not insure that a system is not curve-fit. On the other hand, if we do the development work ourselves, we can tell when a system is curve-fit and does not work out-of-sample. Every time we make a real trade with real money we are performing a walk-forward test on out-of-sample test. Why wait until real money is on the table? Use good system development, testing, and validation techniques and gain some knowledge about how the system will work before calling the broker. Thanks, Howard [url]www.quantitativetradingsystems.com[/url] [/QUOTE]

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