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Stock market doomsayers running wild

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kincella

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Geoffrey Newman, Wealth Editor | April 01, 2009
Article from: The Australian
A HITHERTO rare species of economic animal has been stalking the corridors around here in the past few months.

The incorrigible gloom-monger has not been sighted much in the past few years but has been tempted out of its lair lately by the downturn in the global economy, spreading schadenfreude wherever he goes; it's usually a he. Gloom-mongers are always happiest when times are toughest, when the papers are full of poor economic news.

You will probably have at least one in your group of friends or work colleagues. They shuffle up to you with a mix of humility and mock horror with news of the latest billion-dollar bank loss in the US, like a latter-day Uriah Heep. "Isn't it terrible," they say, stifling a smile.

They always end these updates with the conclusion that things can only get worse from here or that there is some great calamity so far unreported but just around the corner. Oh, and by the way, they have just sold every investment they have and put the proceeds into gold or cash. These people are having a better credit crisis than just about anyone except maybe George Soros.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25251078-5018061,00.html
 
LOL Good, I'm glad I'm considered one of them because I am realistic enough to understand the seriousness of this global financial crisis but still remain optimistic enough that to know I will be better off than most others since I am very much prepared for it.

The motto is, "Be realistically optimistic but prepare for the worst", and NOT "Be unrealistically optimistic AND refuse to believe the worst will ever come".

And everyone seem to forget that it is EXACTLY these infamous doom sayers like Nouriel Roubini, Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, etc, who had predicted the crisis way before these "over-optimistic-in-denial-with-flaw-fundamentals" economists have. Before 2007, I would have even labelled them as ultra permissitic because the stock markets were still rising fast and hard. Nouriel was basically LAUGHED at by his peers for his dire predictions and discredit by all media. And what now?

So should I follow the advises of those who have predicted the crisis and PROFITED from it or those who failed to predict it and made it worse for everybody else?

I certainly know who to choose.
 
Aren't they a bit late?

Geesh!

Now that the taxi drivers are saying sell, it's time to buy!
 
kennas said:
Aren't they a bit late?

Geesh!

Now that the taxi drivers are saying sell, it's time to buy!
Click to expand...

No, no, the taxi drivers, economists & tipsheets (Huntley) are BUYING - they have called the bottom - time to sell to THEM! ;)

Sell the investment properties :sheep: and go, go, go for stocks :D

We'll see how they go after tonights US employment numbers go - hard to ignore the facts.
 
As far as being bearish, Peter Schiff put up the good fight very early on. He was often put down on US TV. Wonder if any of them ate humble pie afterwards. Very good to watch right the way through. Yes I know Aus market is different to what went on in the US:rolleyes:
I know I wouldn’t trust a local rags opinion though

 
there are people out there like my brother....he has been bearish on everything...always....even in the boom times...
so those people miss out in the boom times...waiting for the bear market...and then the bear market scares them...
I dont consider them worthwhile...they dont pick any time as a good time to make money....
and then when the inevitable happens they claim success....
but the market is like a yo yo...its up and down all the time...
no wonder intra day trading is popular
 
They probably look at me the same way as I look at those who think nothing will ever go wrong, and the world is ALWAYS full of sunshine and lollypops.

Come on, differences of opinion are what is makes humans fantastic. If everybody had the same opinion and perspective the world would be a pretty damn boring place.

Being overly optimistic or overly pessimistic can help bring anybody down to matter which pursuit you entertain.. the key is to know when to switch at the drop of a hat :)
 
kincella said:
there are people out there like my brother....he has been bearish on everything...always....even in the boom times...
so those people miss out in the boom times...waiting for the bear market...and then the bear market scares them...
I dont consider them worthwhile...they dont pick any time as a good time to make money....
and then when the inevitable happens they claim success....
but the market is like a yo yo...its up and down all the time...
no wonder intra day trading is popular
Click to expand...

Agree with you here kince . You have to be trading the opportunities whether bull or bear imo. It is pointless to sit back, and just watch it unfold. All the while saying I told you so, but never capitalizing on any opportunities.

I think a lot of people here voice a bearish or bullish concern about what may happen. But trade with a more realistic (and possibly similar) outlook.
 
The truth of the matter is most people trade what they see now. However personally outside their trading they may have a bias.

I consider myself bearish - but the government could save the day with rampant inflation and stop-gap measures. It can fill the void for long enough. We have scope to increase our national debt unlike other countries which may save us this time around. If our government were in a worse fiscal position we would have felt it worse than the US (no housing grants, or stimulus packages). I doubt the debt will be paid back though - 200 billion from my memory is a lot of money.
 
I am bearish overall, but have been buying for several weeks, but, sold them all today, even some gold stocks. Now short everything.

The big picture is that what we are seeing is the cumulative effects of decades of excess credit creation resulting in revolving bubbles in everything - stocks, property etc etc. If it (misaligned investment into unproductive financial money shuffling) doesn't get cleared this time then the next round will, but only several orders worse - an super inflationary blow off top! That's if we get out of this one?
 
Don't know why people cannot face economic reality. This debt bubble has to burst at some stage, when it does, one would think there would be hell to pay. wonder.
 
article today about Paul Keating and the banks... for the first time I agree with him...although its been my sentiment for a long time now....
let the banks fail, if there is nothing but debt there, then shareholders have nothing anyway...
its the big companies who have taken on the debt...
I really dont know anyone in my circle of friends, acquaintences who has a large amount of debt
my post from another forum....

Mr Keating said Mr Obama must step in and nationalise barely solvent US banks.

"The problem with the Americans is this: that they have a great body of large, systemic banks which are barely solvent or maybe insolvent.

"They have to decide which are insolvent and shut them and for those that are solvent, take them over and recapitalise them."

The former Labor prime minister said the trouble with governments was no one wanted to be the executioner.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25283168-662,00.html
 
metric said:
uncle festivus...are you anticipating a post tax crash in the US?
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Not sure what you mean there, but just thinking that the euphoria we've just had in the markets will yet again have to be discounted due to some still deteriorating fundamentals ie unemployment, plunging company profits (pe's being calculated on existing returns??) dramatic 'falling of a cliff' style plunge in international trade (Japan exports down 45%!!), Australian banks still not lending to companies to roll over short term debts etc etc

My reasoning - how has the G20 summit or the ISM manufacturing index going up by 0.5 pionts changed the dismal facts? A classic bull trap. Eerily similar to the Great Depression.
 
kincella said:
article today about Paul Keating and the banks...and first time I agree with him...although its been my sentiment for a long time now....
let the banks fail, if there is nothing but debt there, then shareholders have nothing anyway...
its the big companies who have taken on the debt...
I really dont know anyone in my circle of friends, acquaintences who has a large amount of debt
my post from another forum....

Mr Keating said Mr Obama must step in and nationalise barely solvent US banks.

"The problem with the Americans is this: that they have a great body of large, systemic banks which are barely solvent or maybe insolvent.

"They have to decide which are insolvent and shut them and for those that are solvent, take them over and recapitalise them."

The former Labor prime minister said the trouble with governments was no one wanted to be the executioner.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25283168-662,00.html
Click to expand...

Geez, now you are making bearish comments just like one of us by agreeing that the banks are already insolvent. :) Welcome to the group!

Of course they should be nationalised or undergo a structured bankrupcy. And of course no one would DARE to pull the finger because those who have the ability to enact such policies also have personal vested interest in keeping them alive. Quite unfortunate, but there is nothing we can do much about it except maybe join the protestors at the G20 to break more windows. :D (or prepare yourself for the worst and position to profit from the trend)
 
The former Labor prime minister said the trouble with governments was no one wanted to be the executioner
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Of course they won't, this means to much pain for the general public in the near term. This means that they their popularity will go down.

Just look at KRudd, highest approval ratings since Hawke because of the hand outs!! Whose going to vote out someone who is giving them money for free? All they care about is the short term and winning the election, this is why crisises will continue to occur in the future, none of them look out longer then 3 - 4 yrs!
 
wonderrman said:
Don't know why people cannot face economic reality. This debt bubble has to burst at some stage, when it does, one would think there would be hell to pay. wonder.
Click to expand...

I just love that, I really do - you speak as though nothing has happened. Markets cut in half(+) to levels not seen in ten years, house prices plummeting around the world, but yeah, nothing has even begun yet! :rolleyes::rolleyes: Wait, let me guess - gold headed to $5k as well?

The amount of continual negativity is just staggering. One should always be realistic, conservative, but never blindly bullish, nor bearish.
 
I have a problem with the govt throwing taxpayers money at the banks...so the banks will free up credit for businesses etc.....but the banks took the money and tied up the credit...
I believe the govt would have been better off opening up a fed govt bank with that money and let the other banks work it out for themselves
Obama has put an end to the same tripe from the car makers.....
same thing needed in AU with the banks and any other pirahna's out there

I have no faith in them doing anything right at the moment...look at the fiasco with the job network providors...
 
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