SSN - Samson Oil & Gas

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

How much good news can one stock handle, without moving??

SSN ..... technically, we have seen some base-building,
since mid-February 06 and sustained higher volumes
over the past week too, indicating some traders are
serious about accumulating, at this level.

A close above 42 cents, with good supporting volume,
should see some new players come in from the sidelines,
as well.

Looking at key dates ahead for SSN:

03042006 ..... minor

13042006 ..... significant and positive news???

happy trading

yogi

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration



Hi folks,

SSN ..... today's news:

"Exceptional Gas Show at Turner 5-14"

happy trading

yogi

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration



Hi folks,

SSN ..... another news update, today:

"Hawk Springs Appraisal"

happy easter

yogi

P.S. ..... holding SSN.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration



Hi folks,

SSN ..... expecting more news this week, with
two positive time cycles coming into play,
around:

16-18052006 ... positive news??? ...

happy days


yogi

P.S. ..... holding SSN.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration



Hi folks,

SSN ..... more good news, today .....

Significant shows in Hawk Springs appraisal London Flats #1

happy days

yogi

P.S. ..... holding SSN

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration



Hi folks,

SSN ..... on the move today, ahead of some
positive news expected from this camp,
over the next couple of days .....

18072006 ..... 2 significant and positive cycles, may bring
us some good news and a rally ..... ???

happy days

yogi

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration



Hi folks,

SSN ..... latest investors' report suggesting SSN
is 30% undervalued, at present .....

http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/8a58c7c8a9489ea474a769c28d2c12de/ASX-SSN-329179.pdf

happy days

yogi

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration



Hi folks,

SSN ... up 23% today, with big volume and on no apparent news.

Expecting a positive time cycle to slot into place,
around 3105-01062007 ... finance-related ... ???

happy days

paul

P.S. ..... holding SSN.

 

[ta2693]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

I feel pros are accumulating it from trading behavior. It may break out very soon. I will study this one and decide my position. I appreciate any information from its fundamental side of view.

 

[ta2693]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

After reading the presentation, I feel it is an interesting company. what impressed me are its big oil land, proven new technology going to apply, current producer. I am in and looking for market rerating it in 1 to 3 months.

 

[ta2693]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

news is out. Let us watch how long does it take for market to react.
I think it is on the edge of breaking out.

 

[james99]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

TA: Ageis have confirmed their valuation of .35 on current fundamentals; however more significantly still is the planned US market listing and the particular players involved. Of especial interest:

1. Roaring fork capital has taken a bit over a 5% stake in the company. It is a small cap US specialist that sucessfully grows the sp of overlooked companies ( http://www.roaringforkcapital.com/focus.htm );

2. Strategic growth has also been engaged, a company that packages companies to make them more attractive to investors ( http://www.sgi-ir.com ).

They have both had some extraordinary success. SSN appears to suggest a valuation of .40 US (ie about .42 AU), but with a two year cap target of 200mil, being 5 times the current. Moreover, aside from fundamentals (which are very good and it is undervalued compared to some of its peers), the US partners are able to achieve SSN's projections.

I note an increase to .22 today (with a high of .24), and disclose reasonable (and growing) holdings.

 

[james99]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

A dicotomy: Another good announcement for SSN: And its share price on the Amex is $5.00, which adjuisted 1 for 20 and for currency equates to a price of in excess of .25 Au; yet on the ASX, which has been disproportionately hit by nervousness, it is .175 Au. Extraordinary.

 

[james99]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

SSN stills resists any downturn in the US. It closed on the Amex at US$7.31, which on the 1 for 20 basis equites to an Australian SP of $AU.36. One or other is under or overvalued; I suspect the Au because of the Ballieu recommendion and resources of SSN. Despite all the banking and wider problems, we still all need energy ... and thus energy cos make good defensive stocks.

 

[james99]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Well, high prices can only be good for gas, CBM and UGC. More importantly for SSN, whose assets are in the US, natural gas is surging. See below:


"Natural-gas futures surged nearly 3% to the highest level in more than two years after data showed U.S. inventories fell for a 14th week.
Crude oil for April delivery gained $3, or 3%, to $102.64 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in mid-afternoon trading, a new record high for a front-month contract. April natural-gas futures rallied 30.3 cents, or 3.3%, to $9.363 per million British thermal units. "

Link:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={67592B6C-3837-4118-ABC7-8C020E15BE01}

 

[james99]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

We have the further curiosity of the US price increasing, now to US$3.168 (up 5.60% overnight), up from under US$2.50 at the beginning of the month, whereas the US$ price has not. The US$ = Au$.172 per share, but the US ADR shares closed down yesterday at AU$13.5, a 3.5c difference.

Further the share decrease in Au has occured notwithstanding a potential strenghening of position by SSN, in terms of licences and production over recent times. Quite contrary to the upward trend of gas prices in the US, especially given that SSN is a producer as well as an explorer.

I am firmly of the view that in difficult times companies that only explore face greater risks than producers; those such as SSN, CVN, MPO, STU and many others that also produce will be okay. Any thoughts?

Disclosure: I own SSN shares (and may buy more).

 

[james99]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Well, the IPAA conference (audio is available online) sounded positive with SSN reinforcing its portfolio and its comparative of US$.36-.42. Perhaps more importantly in the medium term, gas prices have now risen substantially and SSN's price has tended to track those. As a positive, it appears as though the company endeavours to make balanced, rather than hyped, announcements.

Its announcments today and yesterday confirm that its state SG#2 well, to be cased for production, is commercially economic. See link below. All good for cashflow and credibility.


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080410/pdf/318j10j7scl8tk.pdf

 

[james99]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Well, SSN seems to be making some progress with State CG#2. SSN is only a small producer (market cap AU$33 mil; with I understand about Au$1 mil sales/month) so every extra discovery is important. Perhaps its time in the sun is almost upon us ...

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080414/pdf/318k99dtr3s6fn.pdf

 

[james99]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

I see SSN is contining to make steady progress; JV with Devon and sale of a non pivitol licence area for US$4.74m (announcment of 9 May), allowing debt payment and exploration finding.

SSN has been trading at a price quite delinked from the increasing US Gas price, which is quite unusual. The Gas price has now recovered, and if common sense and usual trends return, then SSN should trend higher in the short term.

It should be helped by the overnight oil price, which although slightly eased now reached US$128 barrel, with analyst predictions of increase spiking during 2008.

SSN appears to suffer in terms of volume from its US / AU split list and its not very aggressive US broker. That broker needs to address matters (and I think is to), because SSN is now trading substantially lower than its peers on a reserves basis, but with possible better potential in the Baxter shale.

I disclose holdings (and suspect from the limited posts I must be one of the few)

 

[james99]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

I see overnight a big jump for SSN on the Amex: Up 28% to $3.86 (ie approx .20 Au) on significantly increased volume.

Perhaps aided by a small licence purchase; and the company seems, this year, to be placing emphasis on frequent market announcements.

I anticpate that increase oil prices will assist and the increased volume perhaps suggests an improving profile.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...7-4AFD-A182-F0E3C2D2A628}&dist=TQP_Mod_pressN