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I agree with Michael.Price and volume are the key.Trends do work.
Here is an example of one of the long term (weekly charts) trend following mechanical systems that I trade.51% CAGR and 8% drawdown.
To answer Snakes original question, yeah I say that mechanical trading works, it does for me anyhow.

TradeSim random run over ten years of data to present -:

Trade Parameters
(System VolP Realtive Buy )

Trade Parameters
Initial Capital: $50,000.00
Portfolio Limit:    100.00%
Maximum number of open positions: 100
Position Size Model: Fixed Percent Risk
Percentage of capital risked per trade: 1.50%
Position size limit: 15.00%
Portfolio Heat: 100.00%
Pyramid profits:    Yes
Transaction cost (Trade Entry): $0.00
Transaction cost (Trade Exit):    $0.00
Margin Requirement: 100.00%

Detailed Report
(System VolP Realtive Buy )

Simulation Summary
Simulation Date:    8/18/2006
Simulation Time: 9:50:27 AM
Simulation Duration: 1.10 seconds

Trade Summary
Earliest Entry Date in the Trade Database:    1/10/1997
Latest Entry Date in the Trade Database: 7/7/2006
Earliest Exit Date in the Trade Database: 1/24/1997
Latest Exit Date in the Trade Database: 8/11/2006

Start Trade Entry Date: 1/10/1997
Stop Trade Entry Date: 7/7/2006
First Entry Date: 1/10/1997
Last Entry Date: 7/7/2006
First Exit Date:    1/24/1997
Last Exit Date: 8/11/2006

Total Trading duration: 3500 days

Profit Summary
Profit Status: PROFITABLE
Starting Capital:    $50,000.00
Finishing Capital:    $2,625,632.19
Maximum Equity/(Date):    $2,625,688.69 (7/28/2006)
Minimum Equity/(Date): ($3,416.19) (5/9/1997)
Gross Trade Profit:    $3,131,230.97 (6262.46%)
Gross Trade Loss: ($555,598.78) (-1111.20%)
Total Net Profit:    $2,575,632.19 (5151.26%)
Average Profit per Trade:    $13,484.99
Profit Factor: 5.6358
Profit Index:    82.26%
Total Transaction Cost: $0.00
Total Slippage: $0.00
Daily Compound Interest Rate: 0.1132%
Annualized Compound Interest Rate: 51.1468%

Trade Statistics
Trades Processed: 736
Trades Taken: 191
Partial Trades Taken: 0
Trades Rejected:    545
Winning Trades: 92 (48.17%)
Losing Trades:    99 (51.83%)
Breakeven Trades: 0 (0.00%)

Normal Exit Trades: 191 (100.00%)
Delayed Normal Exit Trades: 0 (0.00%)
Open Trades:    0 (0.00%)
Protective Stop Exit Trades:    0 (0.00%)
Time Stop Exit Trades:    0 (0.00%)
Profit Stop Exit Trades:    0 (0.00%)

Largest Winning Trade/(Date):    $236,869.34 (11/12/2004)
Largest Losing Trade/(Date):    ($43,882.75) (12/10/2004)
Average Winning Trade: $34,035.12
Average Losing Trade: ($5,612.11)
Average Win/Average Loss:    6.0646

Trade Duration Statistics
(All Trades)
Maximum Trade Duration: 1246 (days)
Minimum Trade Duration:    7 (days)
Average Trade Duration:    155 (days)
(Winning Trades)
Maximum Trade Duration: 1246 (days)
Minimum Trade Duration: 56 (days)
Average Trade Duration:    247 (days)
(Losing Trades)
Maximum Trade Duration:    336 (days)
Minimum Trade Duration:    7 (days)
Average Trade Duration: 68 (days)

Consecutive Trade Statistics
Maximum consecutive winning trades: 6
Maximum consecutive losing trades:    9
Average consecutive winning trades:    2.14
Average consecutive losing trades: 2.25

Trade Expectation Statistics
Normalized Expectation per dollar risked: $4.9000
Maximum Reward/Risk ratio: 303.36
Minimum Reward/Risk ratio:    -2.97
Average Positive Reward/Risk ratio: 10.88
Average Negative Reward/Risk ratio: -0.75

Relative Drawdown
Maximum Dollar Drawdown/(Date):    $79,367.92 (5/26/2006)
Maximum Percentage Drawdown/(Date):    8.1650% (5/7/1999)

Absolute (Peak-to-Valley) Dollar Drawdown
Maximum Dollar Drawdown: $79,367.92 (3.5610%)
Capital Peak/(Date):    $2,229,071.51 (5/26/2006)
Capital Valley/(Date):    $2,149,703.59 (5/26/2006)

Absolute (Peak-to-Valley) Percent Drawdown
Maximum Percentage Drawdown:    8.1650% ($4,904.72)
Capital Peak/(Date): $60,068.65 (6/26/1998)
Capital Valley/(Date):    $55,163.93 (5/7/1999)

<blockquote data-quote="hardmoney" data-source="post: 65308" data-attributes="member: 1673">I agree with Michael.Price and volume are the key.Trends do work.Here is an example of one of the long term (weekly charts) trend following mechanical systems that I trade.51% CAGR and 8% drawdown.To answer Snakes original question, yeah I say that mechanical trading works, it does for me anyhow.TradeSim random run over ten years of data to present -:Trade Parameters(System VolP Realtive Buy )Trade ParametersInitial Capital:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; $50,000.00Portfolio Limit:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 100.00%Maximum number of open positions:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 100Position Size Model:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; Fixed Percent RiskPercentage of capital risked per trade:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 1.50%Position size limit:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 15.00%Portfolio Heat:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 100.00%Pyramid profits:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; YesTransaction cost (Trade Entry):&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; $0.00Transaction cost (Trade Exit):&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; $0.00Margin Requirement:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 100.00%Detailed Report(System VolP Realtive Buy )Simulation SummarySimulation Date:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 8/18/2006Simulation Time:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 9:50:27 AMSimulation Duration:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 1.10 secondsTrade SummaryEarliest Entry Date in the Trade Database:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1/10/1997Latest Entry Date in the Trade Database:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 7/7/2006Earliest Exit Date in the Trade Database:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 1/24/1997Latest Exit Date in the Trade Database:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 8/11/2006Start Trade Entry Date:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 1/10/1997Stop Trade Entry Date:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 7/7/2006First Entry Date:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 1/10/1997Last Entry Date:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 7/7/2006First Exit Date:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1/24/1997Last Exit Date:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 8/11/2006Total Trading duration:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 3500 daysProfit SummaryProfit Status:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; PROFITABLEStarting Capital:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; $50,000.00Finishing Capital:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; $2,625,632.19Maximum Equity/(Date):&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; $2,625,688.69 (7/28/2006)Minimum Equity/(Date):&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ($3,416.19) (5/9/1997)Gross Trade Profit:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; $3,131,230.97 (6262.46%)Gross Trade Loss:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ($555,598.78) (-1111.20%)Total Net Profit:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; $2,575,632.19 (5151.26%)Average Profit per Trade:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; $13,484.99Profit Factor:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 5.6358Profit Index:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 82.26%Total Transaction Cost:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; $0.00Total Slippage:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; $0.00Daily Compound Interest Rate:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 0.1132%Annualized Compound Interest Rate:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 51.1468%Trade StatisticsTrades Processed:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 736Trades Taken:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 191Partial Trades Taken:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 0Trades Rejected:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 545Winning Trades:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 92 (48.17%)Losing Trades:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 99 (51.83%)Breakeven Trades:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 0 (0.00%)Normal Exit Trades:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 191 (100.00%)Delayed Normal Exit Trades:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 0 (0.00%)Open Trades:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0 (0.00%)Protective Stop Exit Trades:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0 (0.00%)Time Stop Exit Trades:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0 (0.00%)Profit Stop Exit Trades:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 0 (0.00%)Largest Winning Trade/(Date):&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; $236,869.34 (11/12/2004)Largest Losing Trade/(Date):&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; ($43,882.75) (12/10/2004)Average Winning Trade:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; $34,035.12Average Losing Trade:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ($5,612.11)Average Win/Average Loss:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 6.0646Trade Duration Statistics(All Trades)Maximum Trade Duration:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 1246 (days)Minimum Trade Duration:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 7 (days)Average Trade Duration:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 155 (days)(Winning Trades)Maximum Trade Duration:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 1246 (days)Minimum Trade Duration:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 56 (days)Average Trade Duration:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 247 (days)(Losing Trades)Maximum Trade Duration:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 336 (days)Minimum Trade Duration:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 7 (days)Average Trade Duration:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 68 (days)Consecutive Trade StatisticsMaximum consecutive winning trades:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 6Maximum consecutive losing trades:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 9Average consecutive winning trades:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 2.14Average consecutive losing trades:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2.25Trade Expectation StatisticsNormalized Expectation per dollar risked:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; $4.9000Maximum Reward/Risk ratio:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 303.36Minimum Reward/Risk ratio:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; -2.97Average Positive Reward/Risk ratio:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 10.88Average Negative Reward/Risk ratio:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; -0.75Relative DrawdownMaximum Dollar Drawdown/(Date):&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; $79,367.92 (5/26/2006)Maximum Percentage Drawdown/(Date):&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 8.1650% (5/7/1999)Absolute (Peak-to-Valley) Dollar DrawdownMaximum Dollar Drawdown:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; $79,367.92 (3.5610%)Capital Peak/(Date):&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; $2,229,071.51 (5/26/2006)Capital Valley/(Date):&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; $2,149,703.59 (5/26/2006)Absolute (Peak-to-Valley) Percent DrawdownMaximum Percentage Drawdown:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 8.1650% ($4,904.72)Capital Peak/(Date):&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; $60,068.65 (6/26/1998)Capital Valley/(Date):&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; $55,163.93 (5/7/1999)</blockquote>

[QUOTE="hardmoney, post: 65308, member: 1673"] I agree with Michael.Price and volume are the key.Trends do work. Here is an example of one of the long term (weekly charts) trend following mechanical systems that I trade.51% CAGR and 8% drawdown. To answer Snakes original question, yeah I say that mechanical trading works, it does for me anyhow. TradeSim random run over ten years of data to present -: Trade Parameters (System VolP Realtive Buy ) Trade Parameters Initial Capital: $50,000.00 Portfolio Limit: 100.00% Maximum number of open positions: 100 Position Size Model: Fixed Percent Risk Percentage of capital risked per trade: 1.50% Position size limit: 15.00% Portfolio Heat: 100.00% Pyramid profits: Yes Transaction cost (Trade Entry): $0.00 Transaction cost (Trade Exit): $0.00 Margin Requirement: 100.00% Detailed Report (System VolP Realtive Buy ) Simulation Summary Simulation Date: 8/18/2006 Simulation Time: 9:50:27 AM Simulation Duration: 1.10 seconds Trade Summary Earliest Entry Date in the Trade Database: 1/10/1997 Latest Entry Date in the Trade Database: 7/7/2006 Earliest Exit Date in the Trade Database: 1/24/1997 Latest Exit Date in the Trade Database: 8/11/2006 Start Trade Entry Date: 1/10/1997 Stop Trade Entry Date: 7/7/2006 First Entry Date: 1/10/1997 Last Entry Date: 7/7/2006 First Exit Date: 1/24/1997 Last Exit Date: 8/11/2006 Total Trading duration: 3500 days Profit Summary Profit Status: PROFITABLE Starting Capital: $50,000.00 Finishing Capital: $2,625,632.19 Maximum Equity/(Date): $2,625,688.69 (7/28/2006) Minimum Equity/(Date): ($3,416.19) (5/9/1997) Gross Trade Profit: $3,131,230.97 (6262.46%) Gross Trade Loss: ($555,598.78) (-1111.20%) Total Net Profit: $2,575,632.19 (5151.26%) Average Profit per Trade: $13,484.99 Profit Factor: 5.6358 Profit Index: 82.26% Total Transaction Cost: $0.00 Total Slippage: $0.00 Daily Compound Interest Rate: 0.1132% [B]Annualized Compound Interest Rate: 51.1468%[/B] Trade Statistics Trades Processed: 736 Trades Taken: 191 Partial Trades Taken: 0 Trades Rejected: 545 Winning Trades: 92 (48.17%) Losing Trades: 99 (51.83%) Breakeven Trades: 0 (0.00%) Normal Exit Trades: 191 (100.00%) Delayed Normal Exit Trades: 0 (0.00%) Open Trades: 0 (0.00%) Protective Stop Exit Trades: 0 (0.00%) Time Stop Exit Trades: 0 (0.00%) Profit Stop Exit Trades: 0 (0.00%) Largest Winning Trade/(Date): $236,869.34 (11/12/2004) Largest Losing Trade/(Date): ($43,882.75) (12/10/2004) Average Winning Trade: $34,035.12 Average Losing Trade: ($5,612.11) [B]Average Win/Average Loss: 6.0646[/B] Trade Duration Statistics (All Trades) Maximum Trade Duration: 1246 (days) Minimum Trade Duration: 7 (days) Average Trade Duration: 155 (days) (Winning Trades) Maximum Trade Duration: 1246 (days) Minimum Trade Duration: 56 (days) Average Trade Duration: 247 (days) (Losing Trades) Maximum Trade Duration: 336 (days) Minimum Trade Duration: 7 (days) Average Trade Duration: 68 (days) Consecutive Trade Statistics Maximum consecutive winning trades: 6 Maximum consecutive losing trades: 9 Average consecutive winning trades: 2.14 Average consecutive losing trades: 2.25 Trade Expectation Statistics Normalized Expectation per dollar risked: $4.9000 Maximum Reward/Risk ratio: 303.36 Minimum Reward/Risk ratio: -2.97 Average Positive Reward/Risk ratio: 10.88 Average Negative Reward/Risk ratio: -0.75 Relative Drawdown Maximum Dollar Drawdown/(Date): $79,367.92 (5/26/2006) Maximum Percentage Drawdown/(Date): 8.1650% (5/7/1999) Absolute (Peak-to-Valley) Dollar Drawdown Maximum Dollar Drawdown: $79,367.92 (3.5610%) Capital Peak/(Date): $2,229,071.51 (5/26/2006) Capital Valley/(Date): $2,149,703.59 (5/26/2006) Absolute (Peak-to-Valley) Percent Drawdown [B]Maximum Percentage Drawdown: 8.1650% ($4,904.72)[/B] Capital Peak/(Date): $60,068.65 (6/26/1998) Capital Valley/(Date): $55,163.93 (5/7/1999) [/QUOTE]

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