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I would argue that 20,000, 200,000 or 2,000,000 tests on a selected universe proves very little about overall system performance in the long term (and I don't see any nasty corrections, just a few minor blips in a raging bull market from 2500 to 5000). Anyone long term trend trading who did *not* make lots of money in the greatest bull market in history is doing something very seriously wrong.

However, I am personally becoming very aware of how easy it is to confuse the following in a bull market;

1. Brains

2. Luck

3. Positive expectancy system

Snake, I have an open mind on how the stock market works and am still pondering. Right at the moment, my beliefs are;

1. The market is a random walk with an overall positive bias.

2. There are moments of short term non-random behaviour driven by greed and fear.

To capitalize on 1 requires a robust long term exit, a la Tech Trader/ATR exit. To capitalize on 2 requires a different exit strategy, one of which I'm currently paper trading to see if I can get a positive expectancy out of it.