This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

RWD - Reward Minerals

China Potash Shortage

Sinofert sees China potash shortage; eyes early contract
Tue May 6, 2008 3:37am EDT

HONG KONG, May 6 (Reuters) - Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297.HK: Quote, Profile, Research), China's largest distributor of imported fertilisers, expects a shortage of up to 3 million tonnes of potash this year in China after imports fell by about half and tight supplies pushed prices significantly higher.

China could have a shortfall of up to a quarter of its total demand of 11-12 million tonnes of potash this year, and Sinofert hopes to sign an import agreement much earlier in 2009 to secure supplies of the nutrient, the company's senior vice president, Harry Yang, told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday.

China is the world's largest fertiliser market and the biggest importer for potash, which is used to boost crop yields.

Its importers agreed in April to pay more than triple what they did a year ago -- or as much as $670 per tonne, analysts say -- to secure potash supplies, but overall imports still fell about half from last year.

"We expect the tight supply of potash around the world to remain in 2009. We will try to secure our 2009 import contracts at an early date," Yang said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSHKG15129920080506
 
Interesting article, thanks.
RWD have a BFS planned for the end of the year, so will they be in a position to commit to the chinese with some resource in 2009?
I could not see on the latest presentation where they stated the date of first production would be.
Either way, shortages like this and RWD looking like the prime potash co. in Australia should bode well for the holders.
 
HANDS UP THOSE WHO COUGHT THE FALLING KNIFE ???????

PAT DID! ! ! WOOT WOOT ! ! !

A gift from the brokers... Giving me another chance to buy at Cap Raising Price
 
This is a 90 min chart of RWD.
Currently there is no conviction in buying pressure so prices at this point are unlikely to regain upward momentum.
You could be a little premature.
Todays low will be tested when it is we will know more about where RWD is technically.
Knives and trading generally mean someone gets hurt.
But hey you may well be Bruce Lee!
 

Attachments

  • rwd.gif
    9.8 KB · Views: 225
Ha ha ha - Well aware of the charts tech.

No fear of the knife here... I have no intention to sell until PotAsh prices begin to taper-off... I think the Cap Raising will be around 160c and the price will swing around a bit until thats clear. I have more ammo to buy again at the next level down ...

This co. being the biggest and really the only Aussie PotAsh play helps me sleep soundly

But to everyone else... You should def listen to tech/a because I'm just crazy!

Pat
 
How's Bruce Lee going?
Knives not a weapon I believe in playing with.

Would rather have them in my hand than trying to catch them.
 
Oh how I LOVE TA people... Masters of gloating and it doesn't matter which forum u are reading... Always the same.

RWD is still profitable according to my porfolio...

And since I bought at 163 last week and its at 157, I'm down 6c on that buy... OH NO ! ! !

Ready to BUY again at 140c, next key zone...
 
Well, i have some in at 1.59 and some in at 2.04. Starting to wonder whether I should cut my losses on the 2.04 and buy in again at a cheaper price.
 
I am in a similar position so my average buy price is 1.89.
At this stage I will hold as I keep referring to the share price of that Gutnik bloke's potash company in the states which is huge, plus RWD have so far the biggest potash resource in Australia.
Why take a loss unless you really need to free up your funds?
 
***********************************
**Theoretical Discounted Cash Flow**

Risk Ratio @ 60% of Free Cash Flow

8yr Time Line

200kt/pa Ramp to 400kt/pa by yr 7

Avg PotAsh price of $500p/ton

Avg OPEX Cost Per ton $240

CAPEX $150m (60d / 40e) Debt Paid in 7yrs

Free Cash Flows of $50m/pa (Fair Value MCap $500m)

Risk Offset Free Cash Flows $30m/pa (Fair Value MCap $300m)
***********************************

Currently RWD has 68m Shares (Diluted), MCap of $107m

Lets add some future dilution, say +40mil shares

Risk Offset $300m / 108m = $2.77 per share.

I still see HUGE value here - No matter what your charts tell you.

DYOR - I'm no expert, this is just my un-educated guess!

Pat
 
Hmmm....

I think I'll hang on.... I'm not trading massive amounts. Though i have another 5k to put on and i'm thinking about putting it in RWD.

Do they have a production date? I haven't seen it anywhere...
 
HANDS UP THOSE WHO COUGHT THE FALLING KNIFE ???????

PAT DID! ! ! WOOT WOOT ! ! !

A gift from the brokers... Giving me another chance to buy at Cap Raising Price

Gloating?

All forms of analysis are simply wrong until proven correct.
The sooner people realise that its not a competition between analysis types but about being profitable.

I may well be crazy but to seea stake drop 25% and do NOTHING about it as I'm sure many have---just isnt good business.
 
Dude - I dropped the issue and didn't come back... You came out today and had a dig...

I'm in no competition and I didn't challenge your opinion - In fact I agreed with your original comment...??

I don't understand you... Should I follow you around and hound you on your stocks...? No way!

You didn't even post a chart and explain your analysis... At least I have posted my DCF.
 
Watching from the sidelines at this stage and waiting for a reason to pull the trigger. I'm happy to hear the TA view as well as the FA anytime. My sense of market timing is terrible so please feel free to post when the knives go clattering onto the floor

This article is about Phosphate but the reasoning is the same.

Cheers,

Kenny


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...-18261,00.html

 
LoL - I must have caught a case of the "Lanstrom Luck Virus"!

That was a VERY nice close... I though I'd be filling my 140c 4 sure!

Can't be bothered posting a chart, but looks like lots of buying at these levels. Slight increase in volume and a close on high for the day. Candles look like a hammer formation, but we need tomorrow to confirm. Two long wicks have formed, could be considered a tweezers bottom. All this in a key support zone.

Jury is out until tomorrow - Hope for confirmation candle.

So far my 163c buy looks ok and within tollerance.

Cheers all,
Pat
 
This may be a positive for RWD's valuation. Anglo Minerals was just another Nevada gold speccie until they changed their name in February.

Cheers,

Kenny

 
DOH!!!

Sorry Kenny...

You musta been posting at same time as me... LoL!

Its Good news and a great indicator.

Pat
 
no problems, pat!

Good to see RWD responding to positively today. A bit more volume wouldn't hurt either.

Cheers,

Kenny
 
Now that was a DARN FINE day!

What can I say... I'm speachless...

BUT - I don't think I like the gap and candle today produced... Hmmmm!

Engineered sell pressure to manipulate the candle maybe...? They want to keep it low for the Cap Raising... Will be interesting to watch this play out!

IMO - RWD is a highly under valued stock, even when u factor in risk... Let the good times roll on ( I hope )

Pat
 
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...