ROC - Roc Oil Company

Given the woeful track record of the major institutions at forecasting the oil price thus far, if they're selling then that in itself is a reason for me to be holding or buying.

Economists and big institutions waffling on about low oil prices reminds me of a certain Middle East country's former Information Minister. I'm not sure which part of the rising demand / limited production / depreciating currency bit they don't get.

But then one of the big banks did tell me that interest rates would never rise more than 0.75% which says a lot about their style of thinking.

Perhaps the market liked todays ASX ANN!!

Currently +$0.16 +4.66%

ROC $3.59 +$0.16 +4.66% 546,712 shares $1,930,153 @ 18-Oct 10:51:29

EXPLORATION UPDATE: DRILLING ACTIVITY, ONSHORE ANGOLA
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00771012
Roc Oil (Cabinda) Company, a wholly-owned subsidiary of ROC and Operator of the Cabinda South Block, onshore Angola, advises that:

• An announcement regarding the status and results of the Cevada-1 exploration well in the Cabinda South Block, will be made as soon as approvals required by Angolan law have been obtained from the Minister of Petroleum and also after receipt of approval from Angola’s national oil company, Sonangol.

This announcement should not be construed to have any positive or negative implications; with regard to the Cevada-1 exploration well.

This is my last post on this stock; I’ve decided to just let the stock do the talking from now on, because I’m sick of not seeing any constructive discussion. On the note of ROC looks like it has finally broken out on the upside of the large triangle it had been building for the past 4 months on above average volume, and hopefully is heading north again after an extended period of consolidation. The fundamentals are there to take this company places, just needs some luck, like any other explorer. However the one thing that gives me confidence and separates this company from other want-a-be explorers/producers is that management is of the highest quality. In regards to 3Q Revenues, looks like it will lie at the top end of my previous estimate (in previous post), i.e. closer to the $80m mark, as oil prices finished the quarter fairly strong while being slightly subdued in AUD terms as the dollar continued to appreciate from around the middle of the quarter onwards. The focus now for the rest of 2H 07 will be on Angola and China exploration, both proven hydrocarbon provinces, whilst highly attractive, this never assures success. One thing that is certain though, is whatever type of crude the company happens to discover in the future, you can put your faith in the technical team to deliver after dealing with and successfully operating the difficult Cliff Head and Zhao Dong reservoirs.

Hey, Ive been watching the forums for a while, but this is my first post

I was wondering if anyone else is watching ROC, ive held shares in it off and on for the past few years. Yesterday saw the sp go up to $3.90, the quarterly report was released today and at the moment it is trading around $3.30. This is a pretty huge drop. I was wondering what peoples opinions were regarding todays drop. Do you think the market has over reacted to this announcement?


Cheers

SP ROC $3.34 -$0.56 -14.36% $3.34 $3.35 $3.80 high of $3.85 and low of $3.27 6,455,924 shares $22,131,870 31-Oct 15:34:35

Looks like market did not like ANN!!!!

ASX ANN today

31/10/2007 Quarterly Report 30 September 2007
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00777285

REPORT TO SHAREHOLDERS
Activities for the Quarter Ended 30 September 2007

CEO COMMENTS
• The Quarter provided record oil production at a time of record global oil prices; a happy coincidence.

• In terms of US dollars, which is the Company’s main currency of receipts and expenditures, quarterly sales revenues also set a new record.

• The Quarter provided the Company with its sixth currently producing field, Blane, in the North Sea; a heavy oil discovery with its first well onshore Angola at Massambala -1, which is subject to further appraisal and large new exploration areas offshore Perth, Western Australia and in the Mozambique Channel offshore Madagascar.

• Subsequent to Quarter end, Cevada-1 and Soja-1 wells, ROC’s second and third exploration wells onshore Angola, both encountered hydrocarbon shows while drilling but in both cases they are judged to be non-commercial. See section 8.1 Post – Quarter Events.

• As ROC heads towards the end of 2007 and into 2008, its aggressive drilling programme will continue onshore Angola while a new multi-well programme will start up in the Beibu Gulf, offshore China and subject to rig availability, possibly also in the northern offshore Perth Basin.

KEY ACTIVITIES
1. CONSOLIDATED REVENUE & PRODUCTION
1.1 Oil Production hit a record level of 862,454 BBLS with total working interest oil and gas production of 881,209 BOE (9,578 BOEPD); up 13% compared to 782,322 BOE (8,597 BOEPD) in the previous quarter.

1.2 Total sales revenue of $60.8 million was essentially flat compared to $60.4 million in the previous quarter, despite the quarter-on-quarter increase in production. This reflected stronger US dollar oil prices, offset by an increase in underlift by 63,193 BBLS to 115,959 BBLS and a stronger Australian dollar. In fact, in terms of US dollars, which is largely the company’s currency of expenditure, the 3Q 2007 quarterly sales revenue was also a record.

1.3 Sales volumes of 758,560 BBLS, down 1.1% compared to the previous quarter of 769,789, due to timing of cargo liftings.

1.4 The average realised oil price across all of ROC's production assets was $81.39/BBL (US$69.46/BBL), up 3% from 2Q 2007.

aussie86 said:

Hey, Ive been watching the forums for a while, but this is my first post

I was wondering if anyone else is watching ROC, ive held shares in it off and on for the past few years. Yesterday saw the sp go up to $3.90, the quarterly report was released today and at the moment it is trading around $3.30. This is a pretty huge drop. I was wondering what peoples opinions were regarding todays drop. Do you think the market has over reacted to this announcement?


Cheers

Click to expand...

I'm prety new to posting as well so i hope this helps u out.
i've held ROC for a few years now as well (if fact it was one of the first shares i bought) and their SP seems to jump around like this from time to time.

If you look to about 2 weeks ago ROC announced that they had information on the exploration wells in Angola but was waiting for the Angolian government to give the ok before they released the results to the public.

It was also around this time that the SP started on a pretty good run up to $3.90 yesterday. It would seem that people were buying into ROC on the speculation that they had found a lot of oil in Angola and the news today proved this wrong, with Ceveda and Soja both proving to be uncommercial. Due to this the SP has pretty much returned to previous levels of about $3.30, which is also wot i bought them at almost 3years ago.

Although i have been frustrated with ROC oil in the past i am actually going to increase my holdings in them due to the fact that they already produce a fair bit of oil, have some proven commercial fields and they have some exciting new exploration areas and next time they spike like yesterday i will sell out with a decent profit.

hope this helps

Pat

patrick said:

If you look to about 2 weeks ago ROC announced that they had information on the exploration wells in Angola but was waiting for the Angolian government to give the ok before they released the results to the public.
/snip/
Pat

Click to expand...

Cheers mate,

I missed that announcement 2 weeks ago (too much uni study ), that explains the negative response today. I think they are fundamentally a very promising company , what with the existing production and the possibility of future finds and I've always being impressed with the current management team.

I have most recently bought in under the $3 mark, and im happy to hold them for the long term, to see where they go.

GREENS said:

This is my last post on this stock; I’ve decided to just let the stock do the talking from now on, because I’m sick of not seeing any constructive discussion. On the note of ROC looks like it has finally broken out on the upside of the large triangle it had been building for the past 4 months on above average volume, and hopefully is heading north again after an extended period of consolidation. The fundamentals are there to take this company places, just needs some luck, like any other explorer. However the one thing that gives me confidence and separates this company from other want-a-be explorers/producers is that management is of the highest quality. In regards to 3Q Revenues, looks like it will lie at the top end of my previous estimate (in previous post), i.e. closer to the $80m mark, as oil prices finished the quarter fairly strong while being slightly subdued in AUD terms as the dollar continued to appreciate from around the middle of the quarter onwards. The focus now for the rest of 2H 07 will be on Angola and China exploration, both proven hydrocarbon provinces, whilst highly attractive, this never assures success. One thing that is certain though, is whatever type of crude the company happens to discover in the future, you can put your faith in the technical team to deliver after dealing with and successfully operating the difficult Cliff Head and Zhao Dong reservoirs.

Click to expand...

I said I wouldn’t post on this again unless there was some constructive discussion, but considering my forecast was way off the mark I thought I should explain the reasoning why. I assumed around the higher end of the $70m-80m mark.

•The firm produced considerably more oil than it sold for the quarter leaving the company in an under-lift position of around $6.5m, which should be taken into a/c. largely due to timing of cargo lifting’s.
•Shutdown for routine maintenance at Cliff Head for the quarter was not taken into a/c which equated to approx lost production of around 34,000BOO which equates to around $3m in lost Rev.

These first few factors attribute to around $10m of loss revenue for the quarter with the $6.5m likely to be realised in future quarters. While the above are logical and hence the reason why sales figures should not just be taken at face value, the next below was the result of poor judgement.

•ROC’s main field ZD production was significantly below forecast (even after allowing for conservative production), but considering nearly ever analysts response to the fields performance was the same, one of shock and disbelief! I don’t feel so bad. Also the crude sold at a significant discount to Brent; although I took this into a/c it was still off the mark. This in turn accounted for forgone revenue of $5-6m.

Hi folks,

ROC ..... will be alert for an announcement, as a positive spotlight
should be focused on this one, early in the week.

Price action is quite oversold and our momentum indicator
has picked up recently, too.

have a great week ahead

paul



=====

ASX ANN today

Looks like market liked ANN!!!!
ROC $3.00 +$0.07 +2.39% high of $3.05 513,703 shares $1,540,879 @ 30-Nov 10:43:58

30/11/2007 Production Update-Zhao Dong, Bohai Bay, Offshore China
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00789817

PRODUCTION UPDATE: ZHAO DONG BLOCK, BOHAI BAY, OFFSHORE CHINA

Key Points

• A recent production increase at the C & D Oil Fields in the Zhao Dong Block, Bohai Bay, offshore China, has seen gross oil production rise to 25,000 barrels of oil per day (”BOPD”) from mid-year production levels which were in the high teens.
  
• This lift in production coincides with a record realised oil price of approximately US$81/BBL and a shipment of 306,000 barrels net ROC in late November.

ROC, on behalf of its wholly-owned subsidiary Roc Oil (Bohai) Company, which has a 24.5% operated interest in the Zhao Dong Block in the Bohai Bay, offshore China, is pleased to provide the following production and drilling progress report regarding the C and D Oil Fields.

• The 2007 Zhao Dong drilling programme began in April and is scheduled to finish in early December when the last well, a water injector, will be drilled. The total programme comprises 13 wells consisting of 11 oil producers and two water injectors.
  
  • The four most recent producers, all completed since mid-September, have boosted gross production to the current level of 25,000 BOPD. This rate compares with quarterly production averages of 21,000 BOPD, 18,700 BOPD and 17,320 BOPD for the first, second and third quarters of 2007, respectively. The current expectation is that Zhao Dong production will exit 2007 at a rate in excess of the 22,000 BOPD 2006 exit rate.
  
  • This recent lift in production coincides with a record realised oil price of approximately US$81/BBL and a 306,000 BBL ROC shipment on 24 November, 2007. The November price represents a 62% improvement on the year low realised price of approximately US$50/BBL in February 2007.
  
  • Total 2007 gross production for Zhao Dong is expected to be in the order of 7.2 MMBO, representing an average of 19,700 BOPD (ROC net: 4,800 BOPD). This is 22% less than the gross production target set by ROC at the beginning of the year which was identified at the time as being ambitious. The 2007 production shortfall, which has been reported previously, mainly relates to the underperformance of four wells which did not meet expectations due to reservoir and geological complexities, some of which are now better understood, as well as other producing wells which experienced minor mechanical difficulties which have largely been resolved. The overall revenue impact of this underperformance has been offset to some extent by the oil price strengthening referred to above.
  
  • Typically, the seven successful producers drilled during 2007, all of which either met or, in the case of the most recent wells, largely exceeded, original expectations and pay out quickly, sometimes within three weeks.

Im thinking about buying ROC. Most of the concensus and broker views are positive on ROC, and it has dropped considerable since its $3.90 close late November when it announced disappointing exploration news.

Does anyone have a more current view on ROC?

I think they are a good thing, both short term (assuming the Market holds) and long term. Just depends on your strategy.

My 2c

I missed the boat. I had them at 2.75 on my watch list but they just shot up near 3. I assume the quick rise was due to the unrest in Turkey.

Oh well, maybe next time.

I had them on my watchlist and watched the stock going to the 2.70s. I like them cause they are both in exploration and production.

Now the price has moved... still considering. I think I might get some on a RED day. Or day after the Dow Jones plunges triple figures (again!)

Have you guys noticed the amounts of directors selling shares in the last months?

I counted 7 announcements about sells. Not normally seen as a positive move by the leaders of a company.

ASX ANN today

ROC $2.57 -$0.02 -0.77% high of $2.66 low of $2.46 2,291,597 shares $5,932,415 @ 25-Jan 15:53:56

25-01-2008 12:31 PM ROC 2007 Production, Sales Revenue and Reserves Update
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00805990

2007 PRODUCTION, SALES REVENUE AND RESERVES UPDATE

ROC is pleased to provide a preliminary production, sales revenue and reserves update ahead of its 4Q 2007 report which will be released on 31 January 2008 and its 2007 Financial Results which will be released on 28 February 2008.

1. Production ROC’s 2007 production of ca 3.5 MMBOE (9,668 BOEPD) was a record; up 77% on the previous year. Ninety-nine percent of the production was oil.

2. Sales/Revenue Despite a year-end underlift position of approximately 0.24 MMBO net ROC, the Company's 2007 sales revenue of A$248 million was also a record; up 64% on the previous year, due to increased production and strong oil prices.

3. Reserves ROC has completed its internal 2007 year-end reserve review and RISC Pty Ltd is finalising an independent reserve audit report on ROC's production assets, excluding the Chinguetti Oil Field, offshore Mauritania. On this basis, ROC advises that:

• ROC's remaining company-wide proved and probable (2P) reserves at 31 December 2007 are 21.4 MMBOE, all of which are being produced or being developed.

• There has been a reduction of 2.1 MMBOE relating to ROC's 2P net reserves in the C and D oil fields, in the Zhao Dong Block, offshore China, before any adjustment for 2007 production. Compared to ROC's 2P reserves at 31 December 2006, this change in Zhao Dong reserves represents a reduction of approximately 7.5% of ROC's company-wide 2P reserves.

• There are no other material revisions to ROC's

The change in Zhao Dong 2P reserves will have an impact on ROC's 2007 financial results through an increase in the non-cash amortisation expense. ROC's preliminary assessment, subject to audit, indicates that the reserves change, together with estimated future costs to develop the 2P reserves at Zhao Dong, will result in an increase in the amortisation expense for Zhao Dong of approximately A$12/bbl, totalling approximately A$21 million for the year ending 31 December 2007.

The Company’s 2P reserves for end-2007 referred to above, do not include any of the oil and gas resources identified by the five discoveries ROC has made since May 2006, four of which are being actively reviewed and/or appraised and one of which has been relinquished. In this context, the following points are worth noting:

• Approximately 3.7 MMBOE of net ROC resources in the Wei 6-12S Oil Field complex in the Beibu Gulf, offshore China, will be reclassified as net ROC 2P reserves if, as expected, a declaration of commerciality is made later this year. In that event, the reclassification will effectively replace all of the 2P reserves ROC produced during 2007.

• The commercial potential of the Frankland Gas Field and the Dunsborough Oil and Gas Field in the offshore Perth Basin will be better known after completion of the two well drilling programme which is scheduled to start in early February 2008. Currently, these two fields are tentatively estimated to contain approximately 5 to 9 MMBOE recoverable reserves net to ROC.

• The Zhao Dong reserve revision does not alter the fact that a potential for 10 MMBOE net ROC possible reserves is recognised within the Block. Much of this unrisked and unbooked reserve upside will be evaluated as part of the ROC-operated >US$ 500 million development activities which are currently underway.

Anyone else find it very poor that almost every director of Roc has been selling their shares recently.....

And then today, low and behold we are informed that the exploration block did not encounter any hydrocarbons and they had plugged and abandoned the well.....

Inside information anyone??????

This ones a definite short at the moment, previous support confirmed as resistance and so far their attempts to commercialise the Oil Field in the Beibu Gulf has not proved to be very sucessful.....

Cheers

Todays West Australian

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story.php?/1/60358/Roc-Oil-breaks-three-records-in-Q4

Roc Oil Company Ltd says it achieved record oil production, oil prices and revenue for the December quarter.

The Sydney-headquartered oil and gas company, which operates in China, Africa, United Kingdom and Australia, reported sales revenue of $88 million.

It produced 1.08 million barrels of oil (mmbo) and its realised oil prices hit $A100 ($US88.90) a barrel.

Roc's offshore Cliff Head oil field near Dongara in Western Australia paid out its gross capital investment of $327 million after producing about five mmbo during the first 18 months of production.

This represents about one-third of the field's original oil reserves in the "2P recoverable" category under Australia's oil reporting code, JORC.

Roc's two oil projects in the Beibu Gulf, offshore from China, are expected to move towards a final investment decision during the first half of this calendar year.

Shares in Roc were four cents higher at $2.08 at 1352 AEDT.

It is hard to decide whether the latest news out of Angola today is in fact positive or negative. Is definitely just another addition to the frustration of ROC’s drilling over the past 6 months (especially in Angola), good oil shows or residual in nearly all wells drilled. Yet all have come back non-commercial. These includes both Soja-1, Cevada-1 and now Milho-1 in Angola, Wei 6-12-E-1A in the Beibu Gulf and Lilac-1 in the Perth Basin.

The recent announcement is as follows:

“As previously announced, the Milho-1 exploration well commenced drilling on 21 November 2007. Although it is the fourth well in the programme, Milho-1 is the first well in the current drilling programme to specifically target a pre-salt structure which is the sequence which contains most of the oil reserves in the adjacent area offshore Cabinda. All three of the wells to be drilled subsequent to Milho-1 will also target pre-salt structures.

Milho-1 has reached Total Depth after encountering what appears to be a classic pre-salt sequence characterised by a thick world class source rock, with significant oil and gas shows, from which oil has been recovered via wire line sampling. This sequence overlies a thick sand interval with good reservoir quality. While the well is judged to be non-commercial, Milho-1, which is approximately 12 kilometres inland, is only the second well in this part of the Block to penetrate a full pre-salt sequence to basement and, as such, it is a very important data point. It provides the first modern sub-surface evidence that the pre-salt petroleum system, which is so prolific in the adjacent offshore area, underlies a considerable portion of the onshore Cabinda South Block. The lack of shows in the pre-salt reservoir may relate to the well being down dip from the top of the structure.”

If one takes a look at the results of strong oil and gas shows + 1 significant heavy oil discovery (Massambala-1) already recorded in ROC’s current drilling program after little or no onshore exploration and combines this with the amount and size of discoveries surrounding the block, one would only guess that it is a matter of time before they hit a gusher. But as of date the likelihood is becoming less and less likely. If ROC doesn’t hit a commercial discovery in the next few wells, the JV partners including ROC could be more reluctant to continue the funding of this highly expensive exploration program. The only advantage is that ROC has only drilled 1 post-salt structure and nearly all of the onshore (and offshore) discoveries in Angola have been found in these post salt source rocks. Would gladly welcome any insights from those that have geology knowledge to share your views on the recent results and whether you believe this is encouraging for the wells drilled within close proximity to Milho-1.

GREENS said:

If one takes a look at the results of strong oil and gas shows + 1 significant heavy oil discovery (Massambala-1) already recorded in ROC’s current drilling program after little or no onshore exploration and combines this with the amount and size of discoveries surrounding the block, one would only guess that it is a matter of time before they hit a gusher. But as of date the likelihood is becoming less and less likely. If ROC doesn’t hit a commercial discovery in the next few wells, the JV partners including ROC could be more reluctant to continue the funding of this highly expensive exploration program. The only advantage is that ROC has only drilled 1 post-salt structure and nearly all of the onshore (and offshore) discoveries in Angola have been found in these post salt source rocks. Would gladly welcome any insights from those that have geology knowledge to share your views on the recent results and whether you believe this is encouraging for the wells drilled within close proximity to Milho-1.

Click to expand...

Careless mistake, the words in bold are meant to be pre-salt, just think the frustrations of the post-salt section where the first 3 wells were drilled has sent me crazy...