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doctorj

doctorj

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Credit Suisse's Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2009.

In it, CS discover that if you're timeframe is atleast 108 years, inflation and growth will ensure you make a profit on your equity portfolio (amongst other equally revolutionary ideas).

Toot toot!
 

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  • CS Global Investment Yearbook 2009.pdf
    1.8 MB · Views: 507,898
John Taylor - Author of the Taylor Rule.

Taylor asks the question what went wrong and modestly answers it by showing that had central banks followed HIS RULE, everything would have been hunky dory.
 

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  • JTaylor - what went wrong.pdf
    273.9 KB · Views: 58
Fitch puts out some of the best Emerging Market stuff IMHO. Anyone with an interest in the region should find something interesting.
 

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  • Fitch - Global Economic and Emerging Mkt Overview.pdf
    117 KB · Views: 80
UBS - Economic Insights - By George

[FONT=Frutiger45Light,Bold]Financial instability, and the final countdown? More capital, bad banks and, where necessary, nationalisation
[/FONT]
 

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  • UBS - Economic Insights – By George.pdf
    334 KB · Views: 41
Deutsche Bank - Bretton Woods II , protectionism and global economic activity.
 

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  • DB - Bretton Woods.pdf
    292.8 KB · Views: 27
Credit Suisse put out a more meaty companion to the year book, posted earlier.
 

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  • CS - Possible Futures.pdf
    289.5 KB · Views: 32
One that's relavent to most here - Citibank asks if miners have found a base?
 

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  • Citi - Have miners found a base.pdf
    283.8 KB · Views: 32
UBS' quants look at what would happen if all FTSE companies cut dividends.
 

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  • UBS - Geek Squad.pdf
    493.4 KB · Views: 28
A very witty, easy read from the Bank of England. One of the best pieces I've read about how the banks failed.
 

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  • BOE - Why banks failed the stress test.pdf
    103.9 KB · Views: 58
You (probably) read it here first - it looks like the tide may be about to go out on another Ponzi scheme (a'la Madoff). This time it's a Caribbean bank owned by a rich Texan famous for sponsoring a $20 million winner-takes-all game of 20/20 Cricket.

£8 bill of assets...

The financial press is just starting to get wind of this, but here's the original article that started it all published in Venezuala.
 

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  • Duck_Tales.pdf
    47.2 KB · Views: 31
JP Morgan's FX market weekly
 

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  • JPM FX Market Weekly.pdf
    595.8 KB · Views: 26
Interesting comparison. I wonder where things sit a month or so later?
 

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  • race to the bottom.jpg
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It looks like the next evolution of the crisis will be bank's exposure to emerging markets through their subsidiaries. Moody's released a note this morning (attached) warning of it and since then Unicredit CDS increased to over 200bps.

Most banks with large exposures to emerging markets have been downgraded by S&P and remain on a negative outlook (eg. Raiffeisen, Unicredit & SocGen). Austria’s finance minister warned of the risk of an economic “catastrophe” in Ukraine triggering a “domino effect” of problems further west (rightly so - the Austrian banking sector is both highly exposed to emerging markets - 70% of assets - and highly leveraged). Just a 10% increase in the default rate in emerging markets would result in the failure of many Austrian banks.

Other Western countries with large exposures to emerging market banks are Spain (South America), Italy (Eastern Europe), Sweden (Baltics). A useful chart is attached to demonstrate.

What does this mean for ASX investors? Potentially the end of the "BR" in BRIC as the driver for... well... everything.
 

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  • western banks ee exposure.jpg
    22.4 KB · Views: 1,036
  • moodys EE subs.pdf
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doctorj said:
It looks like the next evolution of the crisis will be bank's exposure to emerging markets through their subsidiaries.
Click to expand...
Some more fun facts along this train of thought...

–80% of Hungarian mortgages in CHF, Forint down 32% against CHF
–60% of Polish mortgages in CHF, Zloty down ~50% against CHF
–There's a similar pattern in Croatia, Romania and much of eastern Europe.

CHF was the 2nd largest 'carry trade' behind everyone's favourite, the Yen.

Oh and further to my comment's about Ukraine (below), their Finance Minister resigned recently after the parliament passed a budget for 2009 that violated the covenants of the IMF's $16.4bn bail out package. Unless something changes, the second tranche of the package is dead in the water. Austria are very right to be very worried.

Eastern Europe has to roll ~US$400bn of foreign debt this year (1/3 of the region's GDP).
 
doctorj said:
You (probably) read it here first - it looks like the tide may be about to go out on another Ponzi scheme (a'la Madoff). This time it's a Caribbean bank owned by a rich Texan famous for sponsoring a $20 million winner-takes-all game of 20/20 Cricket.
Click to expand...

To follow up - this just came through a few minutes ago.



Read more: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b159fda-fd13-11dd-a103-000077b07658.html
 
This is from the Financial Times. The top line shows Stanford's alleged returns (interest on deposits) and the bottom shows the returns on the Dow.
 

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  • stanford returns.jpg
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"Alt A" mortgages the next wave.


http://www.economist.com/daily/news/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=13061713
 
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