Depth looking horrible this morning, I wouldnt be suprised if PTM goes below 4.20 at some stage today.
Ive felt that this has been over valued for quite a while. It is starting to get to a more enticing price level though.
PTM does have quite a bit of key person risk IMO, with Kerr Nielson. With that being said, while he remains he provides the company with a good competitive advantage. He has been referred to as an Australian equivalent of Buffet..to the extend this is true I'm not sure, but he sure is good.
PTM are almost at my valuation level and worthy of a buy. It hasn't traded below its valuation in the last 2 years according to my model and is very near doing so now.
Platinum are a very good manager through the tough time and not quite so good when things are doing better as evidence by their returns in the last 12 months. However their long term returns when looking at their underlying flagship fund (Platinum International Fund) is extraordinary over the long-term.
As superannuation accounts continue to have contributions going in which have to be directed somewhere, platinum will get a slice, particularly if they continue their long-term results. This will continual the increase in FUM along with the returns they make, essentially creating a double up effect for increasing FUM and hence, fees.
Thats why at these levels, when they are almost starting to trade at a discount to valuation, Platinum are looking like a great buy.
Hi Kermit,
Have a valuation for PTM for2011/12 of $2.90.
Estimated EPS around 25c for 2011/12 with minimal growth of around 5%, which is only treading water.
Book value 40c , ROE around 60%.
The stock is fairly illiquid, and seems to mainly rely on the expertise of one man to run it.
Very little demand for the stock at present, but does pay a respectable dividend due to a high payout level of over 90%.
I don't see the stock as a buy at this stage.
Perhaps I'm missing something ?
I've been stuck in this trade for almost 3 yearstoday's 4.1% rise was a continuation of the remarkable turn around in price and sentiment that started in Aug 2012, all 4 of my parcels are now in profit something i have waited a long time to see, often doubting that i would see it so soon after the bottom.
The stock market can be so crazy, just beyond sense sometimes..you just never know...the Euro and US debt cans have been kicked down the road with no real solution in view yet the markets are going crazy to the upside...3 year PTM chart below with all my entry's and the turn around.
Persistence, Patience, Belief and Averaging down works again.
~
To easy? can something that takes almost 3 years to achieve be called easy?
What is the opportunity cost of holding for so long?
I don't think it can be realistically calculated...for sure there is some cost, it cost me something..how much ill never know.
I actually do quite like your strategy but it can seem to be a long time between drinks so to speak.
How about if you had held an index fund or cash for 3 yrs what would it have returned in comparison to tyourholdings of PTM?
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