P2 US Equity Portfolio

peter2 said:

JJN : Nickel, flying high, like Icarus

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JJN
Surely the wax melts soon....incredible. ?
Must be some kind of ETF and commodity record... ?

15 minute bars.

Intra week update: A couple of ideas that I posted before Monday's open worked out for me and a couple ideas triggered today (Tues).

peter2 said:

My trading opps here would be intraday only and to trade with the current sentiment (bearish).

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Good intraday short here on TQQQ as the day turned into a trend down day. I got +2.8R.
I've gone short again today but not expecting much of a move today after yesterdays large move down. This short is an offset to a losing SOXL long that I'm stubbornly holding. The open positions keep my attention on the charts.

peter2 said:

Will watch for spike up for shorts on UVXY/VXX.

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Surprised that UVXY/VXX didn't spike higher as the market fell, but it did gap up and I hadn't included that. Still surprised though.
Tues. VIX did spike up and I have started a short on UVXY at 23. I'm prepared to add to this if it goes higher (~25 - 26).

peter2 said:

XLE/USO : Oil, this is going to open with a huge gap up on Mon, possible intraday short for me at the high price

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XLE shorted for a small win +0.9R. Most of this move occurred pre-US open and I was lucky to get some in the US session before it rallied to new highs. The better outcome would have been to short Oil during the UK session.

peter2 said:

TAN : Bullish, watching SEDG, ENPH

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All three gapped up with the two stocks falling all day with the market.
However they gapped up again Tues and triggered swing trade on TAN.

I like to follow up when I post trading ideas to show that most ideas don't even form a trading setup. I'll post my WE reviews occasionally and will post follow ups. I don't want to post a series of winning/losing trades as there's no real educational value unless you're trying something similar.

Today's session reminded me of the importance of preparation for the trading day. It's got to be done before you open the trading platform. Once we open the platform we're overwhelmed with data jumping up and down all over our screens. It's so easy to lose focus. I'm doing a mixture of swing and intraday trading. The swing trade orders are placed are before the market opens. Once this is done we can settle on a few charts with our favourite intra day trading opportunities. If the intra-day ideas don't form trading setups then we can monitor the swing trades and make minor adjustments where possible.

eg. Today TAN gapped above my buy limit stop. I noticed the bullishness and decided to pay the extra 0.50 to get into the swing trade. I also reduced the size of the iSL allowing me to increase the position size. btw: Both SEDG and ENPH also gapped up over my orders and both are sizable positions within TAN. I went with the TAN trade only. I am already long SPWR (SunPower) in the solar sector.

@ducati916 Thanks for introducing me to the Fly blog. I'm totally entertained by it. Plus it's a good guide to current sentiment in many sectors. The man can trade. I had this silly notion of trying to match him with my meagre US account. He lost in Jan so I was ahead going into Feb. I gained more in Feb but the Fly crushed it by turning a -7% into +9% by the end of Feb. Already in early March he's +18% for CY22.
He's a maniacal trading machine but fun to read.

Whoa, something just happened. US equity market are rallying strongly knocking me out of my TQQQ short for a loss. Meanwhile the VIX short is profiting. It's a wash at the moment and I need the VIX to keep falling today and tomorrow.

Gold fell $30 currently (@explod has fallen out of bed). Oil fell $4. Something's afoot, Sherlock.

Markets are pausing and reversing the latest move. Oh, It's all happening here. ILTB.

Edit: and TAN's going to the moon. Already up +2R and I can't sell, as it would be classed as another day trade which will trigger the PDT rule. I'm forced to be patient with this one now. I can't watch.

peter2 said:

Whoa, something just happened. US equity market are rallying strongly knocking me out of my TQQQ short for a loss. Meanwhile the VIX short is profiting. It's a wash at the moment and I need the VIX to keep falling today and tomorrow.

Gold fell $30 currently (@explod has fallen out of bed). Oil fell $4. Something's afoot, Sherlock.

Markets are pausing and reversing the latest move. Oh, It's all happening here. ILTB.

Edit: and TAN's going to the moon. Already up +2R and I can't sell, as it would be classed as another day trade which will trigger the PDT rule. I'm forced to be patient with this one now. I can't watch.

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Yep, but afraid the DOW crashed in the end and gold back up again and about to eat the all time high.

explod said:

Yep, but afraid the DOW crashed in the end and gold back up again and about to eat the all time high.

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Basically at the end facts always beat narrative, be it today or in a month.
Pretty simple one way road for a while in my uninformed opinion.
But Peter's "systems" can run this no doubt?

Noting it here that I'll start one or more swing trades in US uranium stocks. My first choice is URA (ETF) and I'll look for current producers (CCJ). Others, URG, UEC are off an running along with the uranium stocks on the ASX.

Reason: Russia produces 40% of worlds enriched uranium that runs nuclear reactors. If this supply gets "sanctioned" then the POU will rocket.

peter2 said:

Noting it here that I'll start one or more swing trades in US uranium stocks. My first choice is URA (ETF) and I'll look for current producers (CCJ). Others, URG, UEC are off an running along with the uranium stocks on the ASX.

Reason: Russia produces 40% of worlds enriched uranium that runs nuclear reactors. If this supply gets "sanctioned" then the POU will rocket.

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Agree, have a small bet on US market uranium
Sanctions could also come from Russia and there are maybe some resources that could see price jump there..going straight to China, bypassing the west

Update: I got caught in the "VIX" issue this week. Barclays the administrator of the VXX ETN ceased sales in two of their ETNs (OIL VXX) due to their recent increase in volatility. This caused the prices to spike higher than their implied value, due to the uncertainty. I noticed the problem a few days ago as VXX was trading stronger than it should have when compared to UVXY. Then a day later VXX traded up twice that of the 2x leveraged UVXY. (WTF?). My US broker closed trading on VXX, only allowing open trades to be closed. I decided to swallow the -2.6R loss in case it got bigger.



Huge dip in all commodities will setup next swing higher. Keep an eye on them.