Normal
My view on this is that it should not be viewed as a "spread" per se'. Rather, I use historical volatility as a "tool" , along with my best "guess" of future volatility, to evaluate the the current (implied) volatility as to whether the price is "fair" and where the greek risks are.Using this assesment then determines which strategy I think will best fit.for e.g. - If I'm bullish and expecting an immediate strong move, IV is in the low part of its range (or I think it's underpriced) and I am expecting an increase in volatility, there is no better strategy than a straight out bought call.However if IV's are very high and there is a risk of IV crush, the straight out bought call is p###ing into the wind. I might go for a vertical/ratio spread instead and try to benefit from the IV crush.This is certainly true in most instances with index options, but not always true with equity options, not in the normal market swings anyway. Not often enough to use price *direction* as a volatility predictor.
My view on this is that it should not be viewed as a "spread" per se'. Rather, I use historical volatility as a "tool" , along with my best "guess" of future volatility, to evaluate the the current (implied) volatility as to whether the price is "fair" and where the greek risks are.
Using this assesment then determines which strategy I think will best fit.
for e.g. - If I'm bullish and expecting an immediate strong move, IV is in the low part of its range (or I think it's underpriced) and I am expecting an increase in volatility, there is no better strategy than a straight out bought call.
However if IV's are very high and there is a risk of IV crush, the straight out bought call is p###ing into the wind. I might go for a vertical/ratio spread instead and try to benefit from the IV crush.
This is certainly true in most instances with index options, but not always true with equity options, not in the normal market swings anyway. Not often enough to use price *direction* as a volatility predictor.
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