Next big crash?

[mista200]

When do you guys think the next big crash will occur???

 

[excalibur]

When do you guys think the next big crash will occur???

As soon as everybody stops worrying about it!

 

[resourceful_man]

As soon as everybody stops worrying about it!

spot on !

I think most markets are at the top of the cycle now, but it will take about 2 years for the wealth to be squandered.
Sooner or later it all flows back into the pockets of the top 10%.

 

[mit]

I marked never.

Not that I don't think a crash can't happen but I don't think the current market is near crashing on fundamentals yet. That's not to say that some major event could cause it to crash.

I think that if you have discipline and a reasonably good system you can survive the crashes with most of your money intact and in the last 30 years there always seems to be a way to make money in either the markets or property.

I only have XAO data back to the early 80s but what worries me is what I have heard about the seventies where the market barely moved and credit was extremly tight so making a return above inflation on any investment was very tough.

MIT

 

[son of baglimit]

it depends on what is defined as a 'crash'.
points record drops dont count, although the media love those big numbers, sending the lemmings off to dump their stock.
for my purposes, a crash consists of any one day move above 10% (currently +400 points) or 20% within 6 months (mid 02 to early 03).
the fun is pinpointing the low - it is fairly easy if you know what to look for.
for those interested, look into what happened the day the market hits bottom, especially intra day trading. there are tell tale signs.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Crashes don't happen! It's all history.

 

[bvbfan]

I think 2007 will turn out to be a nasty year, just from things I've read over past few years.

I'm talking about the US, Australia will suffer but not as much I feel

 

[resourceful_man]

Investment is like an ocean tide, money flows in and money flows out.
We are some where near the top of the tide if you use history as a guide.
Sooner or later the demand for goods and services will start to shrink, the speed and nature of the retraction dictates the severity of the correction.

No one can say when this will happen or how severe it will be, the only thing you can say with certainty is it will happen.
Investment rules should help you ride the wave in, and be one of the first out when the tide turns.

 

[Knobby22]

There is always a little crash, then perhaps 4 years later a big crash.
We had our last big crash not that long ago so I reckon we have a least 5 years.

 

[salz]

Look for the bubbles which will trigger the crashes...

1. High and ever rising property prices

2. High and rising Oil prices and resulting high commodities prices

3. Huge and bulging US deficit

 

[DTM]

Look for the bubbles which will trigger the crashes...

1. High and ever rising property prices

2. High and rising Oil prices and resulting high commodities prices

3. Huge and bulging US deficit

Add baby boomers retiring and needing access to their superfunds ie withdrawl of money from their investments in equities.

 

[greggles]

Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki is predicting that we could be heading for the “biggest crash in world history”. His prediction came just in time for the Wealth Masters Tour in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne later this month that he is headlining.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...g/news-story/4672aa37ae875923f27a25adb9ce05fb

 

[Darc Knight]

Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki is predicting that we could be heading for the “biggest crash in world history”. His prediction came just in time for the Wealth Masters Tour in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne later this month that he is headlining.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...g/news-story/4672aa37ae875923f27a25adb9ce05fb

Trying to promote his Seminars???

 

[minwa]

https://www.richdadworld.com/catalo...crisis_crash_ondemand.html?cart=&promo=BREXIT

He's been predicting a massive crash for years. Much easier to sell his courses that way as "massive crash" grabs more attention. Many years from now, after years and years of failed predictions, he will eventually get one right and in the future his biography/marketing will scream "the man who predicted the 20xx meltdown".

 

[greggles]

Harry S. Dent is the same. Always making catastrophic financial predictions and getting most wrong, but trumpeting the odd call that he get correct. Then he just conveniently buries the books where he got it wrong.

 

[DNA2013]

An interesting retake on the excess credit growth in the heydays of the 80's economy if anyone has lived through it.

https://mywealthforlife.com/lessons-from-the-past/

 

[sptrawler]

Well they are on the band wagon again.

https://thewest.com.au/business/mar...r-reinforces-his-hawkish-stance-ng-b88981034z

My gut feeling is, the number crunching that can be done today and the experience gained from the GFC, will ensure equilibrium is found.
I'm wondering, if the overseas players aren't pressing to put downward pressure on Aussie banks, then move in.
Just my thoughts

 

[greggles]

Mathematicians claim ‘unprecedented’ global disaster is just years away

https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.a...Dfiu71ptvv6KZq6a1wqUHGBZTx2cbBT_akrW1sO1_qke0

 

[tech/a]

However, Professor Drozdz also noted the crisis was not set in stone, and that it was possible to prevent it by altering certain behaviours.

“If the hyper-crash does occur, we will have shown the power of our multifractal statistical tools in a spectacular way. Personally, however, I would prefer for this not to happen,” he said.

“If this is the case and the hyper-crash does not occur, we will still have the quite acceptable interpretation that our forecast was … correct, but today’s press release will have influenced the behaviour of market participants and, well, we have just saved the world.”

 

[satanoperca]

However, Professor Drozdz also noted the crisis was not set in stone, and that it was possible to prevent it by altering certain behaviours.

If it is a simple as changing prime ministers, then we have nothing to worry about.

“If the hyper-crash does occur, we will have shown the power of our multifractal statistical tools in a spectacular way. Personally, however, I would prefer for this not to happen,” he said.

“If this is the case and the hyper-crash does not occur, we will still have the quite acceptable interpretation that our forecast was … correct, but today’s press release will have influenced the behaviour of market participants and, well, we have just saved the world.”

This statement when I read it this morning is "BRILLIANT"

Simply stated, if a or b occurs we are CORRECT, whatever happens our analysis is correct.

Incredible that mathematicians can now credit themselves from saving the world or maybe it was divine intervention.

Great PR actual never the less