ALFguy
Trading gives me a headache
- Joined
- 20 April 2006
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ALFguy said:Hi all,
I just blew 10k on a few stocks that I simply fancied.
All very speculative but not 'that' concerned about losing.
Still, I'd like to make something!
That said, it's been about a week now and I'm down a fair bit
Just wanted some pointers and general advice and where I could go next.
Thinking to cut my losses and try other stocks but also wondering if 1 week is a little too short to be worrying and maybe I should hang-on-in there and see what happens first.
I chose... GBE UXA and GHT < like I said, for no other reason than I had a feeling.
macca said:Well, if I was you and I had just gone off like that, with no education, I would give my self an upper cut
Then I would sell anything I was still holding
Then I would contact Nick Radge and fly to his place and pay him to teach me what a goose I had been.
Failing that I would still sell everything, and spend every night for at least a month reading this forum as well as Reefcap from start to finish, then I would buy Amibroker software and learn how to trade something like Tech Trader 2.
After that, maybe, I would start liking myself again and continue my education until I felt confident enough to create and backtest my own strategy.
Draw a line across your bank balance and start at the beginning this time
You don't need luck, but you do need knowledge
ALFguy said:Hi all,
I just blew 10k on a few stocks that I simply fancied.
All very speculative but not 'that' concerned about losing.
Still, I'd like to make something!
That said, it's been about a week now and I'm down a fair bit
Just wanted some pointers and general advice and where I could go next.
Thinking to cut my losses and try other stocks but also wondering if 1 week is a little too short to be worrying and maybe I should hang-on-in there and see what happens first.
I chose... GBE UXA and GHT < like I said, for no other reason than I had a feeling.
yogi-in-oz said:
Hi ALFguy,
At a more immediate level of PRACTICAL assistance, maybe
some DISCUSSION about your individual holdings is in order.
Details below are for discussion only ..... no advice here.
Technically, ALL of these stocks have less than 6 months
trading history, so they present chartist few opportunities
to backtest for recurring patterns and other technical tools.
All is not lost, as we can still evaluate, both the PRICE
and TIME axis, as follows.
GBE ... in the attached chart, you will note .....
21122005 low =====>>> 08032006 high = 77 days
Rally in that period = 77 cents = 1 cent per day
Expected retracement = 77/2 = 38.5 + 18 low = 56.5
on .................... 08032006 + 38.5 days = 17042006
..... and so it was too, but support at that level has failed,
so critical level of support will probably be found around
47.5, possibly 77 days out from the high, on 24052006 and.
this should be a key date ahead for GBE ..... see dotted,
magenta triangle in GBE chart, attached.
Using the lower edge of that triangle as a guide, we
can see that the 38.5 level, around 24042006 would be
an obvious point for traders to set an ambush for the
falling price .... so a zone from 38.5-40.5 would be a
likely target area for an expected bounce.
This analysis is further verified by the blue-dotted triangle,
projected out to the same price level at 47.5 and a Fibonacci
extension on the time elapsed for the rally ..... for example:
77 days x 1.618 = 124 days + 08032006 = 10072006
-----
We can also use some independent time cycles to further
analyze the TIME axis and narrow some likely key dates,
for price swings in GBE:
21-24042006 ..... more negativity for GBE ...???
26042006 ..... minor
08052006 ..... 3 cycles here ... significant (financial?)
news expected, though response may
be muted ..... ???
22052006 ..... positive news here ..... figures within
a couple of days of our key retracement
date mentioned above, on 24052006 ...
26052006 ..... another positive cycle and just a couple of
days beyond our 24052006 target date !~!
02062006 ..... minor ... finances??
06062006 ..... significant and negative news???
13062006 ..... significant and positive news/moves???
19062006 ..... long, time cycle due here ...
6 months on, from the lows, on 21122005.
27062006 ..... significant and negative spotlight on GBE
29062006 ..... minor and positive ..... finances???
07-10072006 ..... should see many stocks turn here,
as there will probably be a focus
on oil prices ..... ??? ..... also our key
date, projected by Fibo extension, above.
24072006 ..... significant and negative ???
28-31072006 ..... 2 time cycles here .... should bring
significant and positive changes ... ???
In summary, in the short term our chart shows likely support
in a zone 37.5-40.5 cents, probably before 08052006 ???
Further out 22-26052006 should see a positive tone for GBE,
with the price around 47.5 ..... ???
Look ahead, mid-August should be positive for GBE and
a year after listing, GBE should be positively BOOMING,
in mid-December 2006 .....
=====
Details above are for discussion only ..... no advice here.
=====
If you are interested in similar analysis for UXA and GHT,
just let us know and then stay tuned to the relevant,
individual stock threads .....
happy trading
yogi
yogi-in-oz said:
If you are interested in similar analysis for UXA and GHT,
just let us know and then stay tuned to the relevant,
individual stock threads .....
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