My first chart

marklar · 6 January 2007

OK, I've started with my first chart with one of my first purchases: FRR.

I've not scribbled on it yet, I'm still working my way through John J. Murphy's book "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets", at the moment I'm kinda thinking out loud...

Support at the moment appears to be around 0.79 and resistance at around 0.81, it's kinda moving sideways for the past week and hasn't done much since the end of november.

Since mid november momentum is up, but the sharp-ish rise was due to a single positive announcement, so I'd take that out of consideration and still stay the stock is moving mostly sideways.

Question time:

1. Is there much more I can read into this chart?
2. Any guesses as to what (from a T/A perspective) is likely to happen with this stock?
3. I'm not up to wave theory yet, is there anything obvious that can be seen from the chart at this stage?
4. Am I missing anything serious?

Thanks for listening, input and feedback appreciated.

m.

camaybay · 6 January 2007

Have you looked at 18 mth chart? To me it seems to breakout after the .80 by .10/.15. So I would think resistance at .80 historically, support at .65/.70. As far as the waves, it would appear it's up to the fifth and with consolidation happening after the gap up 15/18-12. It started to move after the AGM.

DYOR

Porper · 6 January 2007

marklar said:
1. Is there much more I can read into this chart?

Chart is a bit messy to me and also it has been a bit sleepy in a rising market since August.

marklar said:
2. Any guesses as to what (from a T/A perspective) is likely to happen with this stock?

To me it really needs to make a break through resistance at 0.80, preferably accomponied with good volume to have a chance of an upward move of any substance.A thing to remember though is how many people who bought the stock just prior to the big gap down in May still hold ?.If a lot still do they may well see any rise an opportunity to get out, of course keeping the price down.

marklar said:
3. I'm not up to wave theory yet, is there anything obvious that can be seen from the chart at this stage?.

From an Elliot wave perspective, well I can't make head nor tail of it, to me there isn't a wave count without forcing one into it, which you shouldn't do.

rowes · 6 January 2007

Hi,

going by the chart alone if i was holding a position on this stock i would be pretty concerened that the buyers had a good couple of goes at breaking through the .80 mark and have not been able to do this, maybe keep an eye out for a reversal signal in the near future?
i'm only learning myself so this is definitly not advice, just thinking aloud. love to see someone elses opinion.

good luck

marklar · 7 January 2007

Thanks all for the input thus far.

Porper said:
to me there isn't a wave count without forcing one into it, which you shouldn't do.

Great advice there... beware of seeing things that aren't really there!

rowes said:
going by the chart alone if i was holding a position on this stock i would be pretty concerened that the buyers had a good couple of goes at breaking through the .80 mark and have not been able to do this, maybe keep an eye out for a reversal signal in the near future?

I got in at .68 and am considering pushing my stop up to .78 for exactly this reason, give it a bit longer to edge above .80 or get out if it flinches downward. I've learnt a lot by holding & watching this guy, should hopefully make a small profit too

m.

theasxgorilla · 7 January 2007

From the all-time-low in June it's managed about a 36% appreciation, against the XAO which managed 17% during the same period. Not a multi-bagger yet, but an outperformer to be sure.

At an average of about 600-700k shares traded a week the liquidity isn't great. What does concern me is that this relatively low liquity manifests itself in massive gaps. What happened in late May 06? I know the XAO was correcting, but this share lost 16% overnight!

80 cents is super support/resistance level. Ordinarly I wouldn't be too worried that it hasn't broken the 80 cent level yet as it seems to be in a time-phase. If/when it does it will probably do so aggressively due to the low liquidity.

What I am curious about is that on Friday the 2nd-highest volume of all time (not including IPO period) was transacted and the share price barely moved

canny · 7 January 2007

I'd call the 79 - 81 not support and resistance, but a period of consolidation.
(possible Darvas Box forming?)
The 80c resistance is quite likely to get broken upward as the chart is showing higher highs and higher lows (uptrending)

Worth keeping an eye on, but might go either way depending on the fundamentals, and the market in general.

I am NOT a charting expert - that's my brief eye cast over it.
Prefer porpers chart to your original incredible charts version - it's more specific.

Happy · 8 January 2007

Until stock is in up trend has to be treated cautiously

marklar · 8 January 2007

FWIW, I got out this morning at 0.80, I made a profit, but since I didn't invest very much money, I didn't make a particularly impressive profit.

I'll continue to keep an eye on this guy to see if the analysis presented thus far pans out.

m.

camaybay · 10 January 2007

I see that FRR high 87.5 finishing at 83.5. Good luck. If I was holding I would sell and if I liked it again , buy on lower price. The process starts over again. This is not a wind fall company. This is a good result for a dog day.
If you have 10000 units then .01= $100.For your second venture, may be lower start up price share? eg YML only a guess, good research on this site and on their site.
Cheers
DYOR

malachii · 11 January 2007

Just a bit of history fwiw. I've held this stock for a bit over 12 months. I'm normally a trader but hold this one for the dividend (approx 10% + franking cred). The gap down in May 06 was due to the fact that Coles didn't re-sign the maintenance contract FRR had with them but had it go as a rolling month to month maintenace agreement. A previous spike up (4 months ago maybe - not sure have to check ann) was due to Coles signing a contract with them for something like 40% of their maintenance. The big drag on this stock (in my opinion) has been the fact that 80% of their income comes from maintaining the frig/air con of Woolies and Coles. If they lose either it would mean a big hit on their income. They are trying to diversify by buying other related businesses but Woolies and Coles mean a lot to them. I cant explain the recent move up. Dont know if it's a bit of insider trading or just maybe a market revaluation. This stock has never had a lot of volume go through, has been around since the early 1900's, was a family business, was floated then privatised and then re-floated recently (approx 2 years ago).

malachii

PS I hold shares in this company!!!!!!!!!

My first chart

marklar

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