kennas said:
MUR looking good. Not too much to tell from the chart other than it's going up. Couple of breakouts since low point in Oct. Momentum seems to be still up. Great volume. Might have a few short term traders riding it at the moment so wouldn't be surprised for a sell off in the next few days, like a couple of days ago. Closing on it's high is pretty positive for tomorrow morning and if the US doesn't crumble would expect a gap up.
Some commentary about MUR that u might find interesting. I will start with the non u interests. MUR very recently concluded its 50% JV purchase of the Maroochydore Copper Project from the creditors of Renison Bell. The other 50% is held by Aditya Birla Minerals who are the operators. The project has been in limbo for about a year as legal issues remained unresolved. These were settled about six weeks ago. The project already contains a JORC resource of 51,000,000 tonnes at 1% copper and 0.04% cobalt so MUR's share is 250,000 tonnes of copper and 10,000 tonnes of cobalt (cu equivalent of 1.42%)
Current prices for copper are US$2.95 a pound and US$31.00 a pound for cobalt. So the current in ground resource is in US$92.18 per tonne x 51,000,000 tonnes = US$4.7 billion. A fairer way to look at this is to look at ABY which is valued at A$616,000,000 and currently operates two copper mines very near by Maroochydore (which is very near Telfer) and "guesstimate" that this asset could be worth around one third of ABY's value as an operating mine (it contains roughly one third of ABY's current JORC copper resources). So that is A$206,000,000. A 50% interest is then worth A$105,000,000 as a fully equiped mine. The "opportunity" value to ABY on the undeveloped JORC resource would be quite high. My guesstimate is in the A$10-30,000,000 range. MUR has 300,000,000 shares on issue so the asset may be worth somewhere between 3 to 9 cents (currently 14 cents a share). MUR has indicated that it may sell the asset. IMHO they might end up with a bunch of shares in ABY and some cash to fund their u program.
IMHO MUR is one of the better quality junior u explorers and it is obvious when viewed in context of the value of the above copper assets its uranium valuation is possibly around 5 or 6 cents (A$15,000,000) when other explorers such as WMT have thru the roof valuations on a much smaller asset base of A$110,500,000. IF we assign a similar valuation basis to MUR then the u & cu assets are worth somewhere in the 30-45 cents per share range. I will explain the basis of the valuation in my next posting, sometime in the next 24 hours. IMHO similar type of offshore buying that took WMT to 25 cents (James Dines recomm) is now affecting MUR via its recent North American presentation and roadshow. The fact of the matter is that international managers are valuing small "high grade, hi flying" u stocks at valuations exceeding A$100,000,00 IMHO has a number of very high grade u plays in Mauritania and Guinea.