Market Crash 2025

I don't think Trump likes to see the Stockmarket crashing, it reflects badly on him. His election promise was to bring down the prices of goods not increase them, inflation would be zero. Someone must of talked sense into him overnight which is a miracle, I hope Trump didn't fire him or her.

Knobby22 said:

Trump has pulled back from the tariffs. I did hear there were some very unhappy Republicans.

I think next time the tariffs will be smaller and more targeted but who knows?

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I don't believe Trump is affected by anybody else's interests, especially his supporters or donors. It is all about Trump and his and his family's interests. Although we will never know his sons and Jared Kushner probably had a word in his ear about some of their $Billions being at risk.

gg

A lot of speculation. Everyone is second guessing Trump which I suspect he likes.

DannyB0000 said:

I don't think Trump likes to see the Stockmarket crashing, it reflects badly on him. His election promise was to bring down the prices of goods not increase them, inflation would be zero. Someone must of talked sense into him overnight which is a miracle, I hope Trump didn't fire him or her.

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Trump's biggest problem will be getting accurate data ( on almost everything )
the system lies so often , it believes the farcical data and it's own narrative ,

how much of the fake data can Trump and advisers banish into the dustbin

Musk's adventure into the Treasury accounts will just be the tip of the iceberg ( maybe even the first snowflake in Antarctica )

by the time he gets to the IRS , Homeland Security , and Department of Defense they will need one thousand robot Musk's just to scan the accounts , let alone come to conclusions

greggles said:

The Trump post-election glow and optimism feels like it's evaporating. Nothing has really changed except maybe the tariffs to come.

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I'll avoid commenting on politics and just say it's the old "buy the rumour, sell the fact" scenario there.

US Presidential elections have the particular attribute of the outcome being effectively certain and widely known quite some time before it happens. The election was held on 5 November 2024, the new President inaugurated on 21 January 2025.

So that's 2.5 months during which, barring any unforeseen event such as death, the outcome was certain and known to practically everyone. There aren't many situations where you get that sort of advance notice of a certain outcome and it's plenty of time for all but the largest institutions to enter or exit whatever financial positions.

Only comment I'll make on specific policies is in regards to natural gas. A few points here all of which in my view are conducive to higher prices:

About 7.5% of "US" natural gas production is actually imported from Canada by pipeline. Applying a tariff to that will make it more expensive.

Plans to increase LNG exports from the US are, in the US domestic market context, not a new source of supply as many seem to be incorrectly thinking. Rather, it is an increase in demand.

The idea of increasing manufacturing will in practice require more natural gas for use both as an energy source and as chemical feedstock (natural gas being the raw material for various chemicals etc).

AI, manufacturing and economic growth in general require electricity. For not all but for much of the US the marginal source of that is in practice natural gas, since other sources are already fully utilised and won't be rapidly expanded or duplicated.

From there it's basic economics. More demand and no real change in supply but some of that supply costs more. Price should rise.

With the added "gotcha" that a large portion of the US' gas production is a by-product of oil production. That being so, a rise in the gas price has only a weak linkage to any effort to produce more of it, the oil price being a much greater influence.

Spot on @Smurf1976 and hence as per The White House, Trump's proposed lower rate of a 10% tariff on Canada's energy imports.

Snippet and my bolds:

ADDRESSING AN EMERGENCY SITUATION: The extraordinary threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs, including deadly fentanyl, constitutes a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

• Until the crisis is alleviated, President Donald J. Trump is implementing a 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% additional tariff on imports from China. Energy resources from Canada will have a lower 10% tariff.

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The fact that he proposes that lower rate on imported Canadian energy demonstrates he is fully aware that tariffs increase prices. Not so good for "Trumps' Mob" and their profits eh?

I find it curious, funny even that Trump has used the IEEPA for this. Something that was signed into being by the late President Carter.

Trump is like us all getting older and not able to think on his feet as quickly as he did 8 years ago. If I were Canadian or Mexican I’d be applying my own tariffs on the US and give Trump’s balls a good painful vigorous squeeze.

He is vulnerable atm. I’m not looking at selling any of my ASX holdings.

gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

Trump is like us all getting older and not able to think on his feet as quickly as he did 8 years ago. If I were Canadian or Mexican I’d be applying my own tariffs on the US and give Trump’s balls a good painful vigorous squeeze.

He is vulnerable atm. I’m not looking at selling any of my ASX holdings.

gg

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At present my ASX holdings don't account for much. In fact the CHN holding which I have been trading for awhile sold this morning, perhaps a tad early but the profit is what I am chasing.
Perhaps some good buys appearing over the next few days.
LYC is another that I have my eye on.
Was kind to me some time ago and might be so again!!!!!

Garpal Gumnut said:

Trump is like us all getting older and not able to think on his feet as quickly as he did 8 years ago. If I were Canadian or Mexican I’d be applying my own tariffs on the US and give Trump’s balls a good painful vigorous squeeze.

He is vulnerable atm. I’m not looking at selling any of my ASX holdings.

gg

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have some reduction orders in the market ( two of them ) more out of hope than conviction

i will stick to my basic plan .. sell/reduce when in a sensible profit or there is a VERY good reason to trim or cull the holding

basically the entire G7 is fragile one way or another , but since i have been avoiding most of them since 2020 my real worry is contagion ( into the rest of the world )

I will get completely out of the market if I see inflation starting to spike much higher again or central banks start hiking interest rates again, things can't end well if that happened. I didn't dump everything because of the sell off that just happened, but I'm more overweight cash now.

DannyB0000 said:

I will get completely out of the market if I see inflation starting to spike much higher again or central banks start hiking interest rates again, things can't end well if that happened. I didn't dump everything because of the sell off that just happened, but I'm more overweight cash now.

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not me , BUT i have been expecting ( and preparing as best as i can figure ) since late 2012 for the crash that MUST come ( eventually )

what i did do is reduce my cash risk in stocks that have been crazy profitable ( and stocks where management have been serial stumblers .. like WOW and WBC )

my theory is IF things get really nasty , the banks will freeze up ( your ) liquidity ie limit or delay withdrawals/transfers , after my experience in the 'great building society collapse ' i would rather have a full pantry than money in the bank .

now in 2020 i played half and half , i had a fair amount of 'liquidity ' in reverse index ETFs , which when sold deposited the cash/credit straight into my trading accounts , ready to snap up some bargains



am not so heavy in those ETFs this time ( but do have a small holding of them )

Posted 31 Jan 2020 at 7:36 PM
a few changes due to share price moves ( today )

( by $value )

1. MQG. ( 'free-carried )

2. cash ( yes i reduced WOW and bought into KGN and HPI and still have some cash left )

3. BHP ( some profit taken )

4. WES ( at full cash risk )

now if i were to bundle BBOZ and BBUS and call them say 'liquidity buffer ' they would be No. 5 , but let's stick with the boring old style ( wink )

5. JHG ( full cash risk )

6. APE ( at some cash risk )

7. CLW ( full cash risk )

8. EQT ( 'free-carried ' )

9. PME ( 'free-carried )

10. CUP ( at full cash risk )

11. CMW ( at full cash risk ) ( or 10. if you don't count the cash holdings )


just behind these are CCL and SVW


( DYOR )

former No. 1 WOW is still held but might be around No. 15 ( at a rough guess )

take care folks

AND

Posted 28 Feb 2020 at 6:22 PM (1 Likes)

some changes this month ( what have i done ? )

( by $value )

1. MQG. ( 'free-carried )

now if i were to bundle BBOZ and BBUS and call them say 'liquidity buffer ' they would be No. 2 , but let's stick with the boring old style ( wink )

2. BHP ( some profit taken )

3, WES ( at full cash risk )

4. APE ( at some cash risk )

5. CLW ( full cash risk )

6. JHG ( full cash risk )

7. API ( full cash risk )

8. LNK ( full cash risk )

9. BBOZ ( full cash risk )

10. EQT ( 'free-carried ' )

11. CMW ( at full cash risk )

the last week has really shaken the portfolio up


( DYOR )

please note i did NOT see the lock-downs coming

i was watching 'Repo Madness ' and the antics in China and responses in South Korea and Singapore


SOoooo .. what about the end of March 2020 ?

Posted 31 Mar 2020 at 6:16 PM
some changes this month MOSTLY share price moves but almost out of the reverse index plays , the cash reduced , but more coming )

( by $value )

1. BHP ( some profit taken )

2. MQG. ( 'free-carried )

3, WES ( at full cash risk ) ( less than $500 between the top 3 now )

4. API ( full cash risk ) ( not a misprint )

5. CMW ( at full cash risk )

6. CLW ( full cash risk )

7. JHG ( full cash risk )

8. PME ( 'free-carried )

9. EQT ( 'free-carried ' )

10. APE ( at some cash risk )

with CUP ( full cash risk ) and LNK ( full cash risk ) close behind

well that was certainly an instructional month

is there more lessons to come ?

please take care

=============================

some may note that M&A activity after this really made a mess of my strategy for the long term

but considering i didn't see the lock-downs coming OR the obvious picking of winners during the lock-downs ( and the K-shaped recovery ) i think i did OK

BUT have i got it correct this time ? that is the one that counts NOW

the problem is not so much which black swan triggers the next crash but which companies will the governments prop up ( or bail out ) ??

Looking at the various overseas markets today with the exception being the Footsie all have come out looking pretty good.
If a recession is around the corner(?) then it isn't deterring the investors at this stage.
I guess it will depend on The Trumpet and his next brain snap decree.

divs4ever said:

well at 70 ( years old ) and limited ability to fund a recovery if i am wiped out

where should i be

in dire circumstances even property may go to zero

now younger healthier members may have more options

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@divget inspiration from +90 years Buffet .
70 is the time to start for many. So keep looking forward.

Hazarding a guess I'll last longer than others as I have more than most. Wishful thinking?

Bellcose said:

Hazarding a guess I'll last longer than others as I have more than most. Wishful thinking?

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@Bellcose As someone once said: I have given up on making the first one million dollars, so I am going to start on the second million!!!!!!

farmerge said:

@Bellcose As someone once said: I have given up on making the first one million dollars, so I am going to start on the second million!!!!!!

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but one million dollars isn't worth what it used to be ( even say back in 2010 )

market crashing upwards today

2 mini panics, and that's it so far in 2025

The chances of a market crash in 2025 have increased since Trump has been inaugurated. He is moving too fast on reforms and deals. It is starting to cause chaos. The NASDAQ particularly the SOX are way overvalued. It will happen overnight.

When?

Who knows.

gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

The chances of a market crash in 2025 have increased since Trump has been inaugurated. He is moving too fast on reforms and deals. It is starting to cause chaos. The NASDAQ particularly the SOX are way overvalued. It will happen overnight.

When?

Who knows.

gg

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That's why banks are rushing to hoard the gold, they're getting ready for a possible large world wide recession. Gold valuations most times beat stocks and currencies in a crash.

Causing chaos Garpal?
$55 Billion (so far) in US budget savings.
That will cause a recession alright..

"..By: CHARLIE SPIERING, SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER, WASHINGTON, DC

REVEALED: Total estimated taxpayer savings after one month of DOGE

DOGE has saved American taxpayers a staggering amount of money as Elon Musk and his nerd army rip through government spending.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Published: 04:49 AEDT, 19 February 2025 | Updated: 08:13 AEDT, 19 February 2025
REVEALED: The eye-popping total estimated taxpayer savings after one month of DOGE
..Elon Musk's DOGE revealed Tuesday that President Donald Trump has saved taxpayers a staggering $55 billion in less than a month..."