in the context of implications of regime change
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I promised to post a series of why the fall of the Pro-Russian Assad regime is a monumental defeat for Moscow and in the last episode addressed the situation in Africa where Russia's plundering of resources is threatened by the losses of the Syrian bases. Today, comes the next episode: The Syrian Energy Corridor
For decades countries in the Middle East have been pursuing the objective to establish a natural gas pipeline to Europe, one of the most lucrative markets in the world. Until 2022, Russia was the dominating seller of natural gas and established a series of pipelines, such as Nordstream. The Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline connecting Azerbaijan to Europe while going through Turkey was in this region the only competitor and gained some market share ever since Russia launched the full scale war in Ukraine. But with 16 billion cubic meter per year, it remains rather small.
For comparison some more pipelines (in cubic meters per year / cbm)
- Nordstream 1: 55 billion cbm
- Nordstream 2: 55 billion cbm
- Yamal: 33 billion cbm
- Bratstvo: 32 billion cbm
With an annual demand of 350-450 billion cbm, Europe relies on far bigger supplies. One of the most interested one in building a natural gas pipeline to Europe in this region has been Qatar. This small Emirate sits on 24 trillion cubic meters in proven reserves, enough to supply Europe for almost century and probably long enough until full decarbonization. Currently, all Qatari natural gas exports are done via LNG, which as well known is energy intense and therefore not as efficient and lucrative as pipeline gas. LNG is good when it comes to competition, but when it comes to size and constant supply, pipeline gas is the king.
As mentioned, Qatar has been pursuing this project for a long time and followed two possible scenarios:
Variant 1: Qatar -> Saudi Arabia -> Kuwait -> Iraq -> Turkey
Variant 2: Qatar -> Saudi Arabia -> Syria -> Turkey
Both proposals had obstacles: Variant 1 leads through Iraq which at the time and even today is too unstable for a persistent supply. It also leads through Kurdish-Iraq which is an ongoing issue for Turkey.
Variant 2 seems to be the more viable one, but it had one obstacle: Syria.
Syria under Assad had been a staunch ally of Russia and naturally had no inclination to oppose its handlers in Moscow, even though it would have been lucrative to Syria and therefore Assad. But Moscow's influence was too strong and in the late 2000s the project was effectively shot down.
After this weekend this has changed. Assad is gone and Syria is under control by the rebels, who have good relations to the Qatar. It does not take much guessing to assume whether Qatar will renew its efforts. With good relations to Turkey and Syria only Saudi Arabia needs to be convinced. Though the relations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia has been under heavy strain in the last years, especially when it comes to Iran, the last years have seen some de-escalation. Diplomatic ties have been re-established in 2021 and the borders are open ever since without much disturbance.
There is also the Arab Gas Pipeline from Egypt going all the way to Syria, but hasn't been connected to Turkey, yet. The intention to do so was interrupted by the starting Syrian war in 2011. Now, this operation can be resumed.Syria is slowly but surely becoming an important energy hub.This development was actively opposed by Moscow, for obvious reasons. Qatar's vast reserves in natural gas threatened Russian almost monopoly and undermined its ambitions to use the energy as a weapon against inconvenient neighbors.
With both Nordstream pipelines destroyed and Assad ousted the worst case scenario arrived for Moscow. Even when Russia might somehow convince the new leadership in Damascus to keep the Russian bases, a prospect with low chances of success, Syria's rise to become an energy hub is certain.With Gazprom decaying and being virtually bankrupt as well as the prospect of another huge competitor emerging on the European market, Russia is reeling into the next economic catastrophe. A wise Russian leadership would instantly stop all military activities and open up negotiations.There are increasing voices that Putin will do this, because of the military situation, which in itself warrants this prognosis. The Russian losses remain to be staggeringly high and the Soviet army depots are depleting fast. But with the developments in Syria, another weight comes in.
Putin's decision to allow Assad refuge is a strategically stupid decision. Assad lost not only value, but has become a liability for Russia. Damascus will demand extradition. It does not make sense from a geopolitical point of view, but illogical decisions are a constant under Putin.
The only reason Assad has been allowed to be in Moscow is because of Putin, who remembers only too well when it was him being holed up in his KGB office in Dresden, abandoned and alone by Moscow. It is a personal decision which is based by a deluded person who harms Russia, once again.
Russia is reaping all the strategic failures which Putin has created. It is misstep after misstep, with no light at the end of the tunnel. In the contrary, neither politically not economically Russia can expect any turnaround of this death spiral and Putin is the helmsman.
It shows that Russia is running out of options and time. Ukraine is feeling a lot of pain, but the strategic defenses are holding. Even when we project that Russia might take Pokrovsk or even entire Donbas, it does not change the situation on the ground, not even a bit. We have seen in Syria what real military breakthroughs look like. Syrian rebels took the same amount of territory in one day what Russia couldn't take within an entire year. Russia is creeping on the ground and burning men and material on an astronomical scale. With Syria fully lost and Africa on the verge being lost or at least diminished, Russia is in the ropes. The wisest decision for the West would be to unleash whatever had been held back. It is an even more ideal time to do so. It is time to finish the job as we did 1989-1991