LNC - Linc Energy

RP_Automotive · 5 April 2009

I wouldn't be surprised if we have a small pullback, not much.....but I think a few people got onto this anticipating a announcement of the sale of tennaments. Now its a while away, those traders have made their money and are getting out.

Lets hope the sale goes through as indicated (price wise) and everyone jumps on before the bangwagon leaves town

Im holding for long term.

eric35 · 6 April 2009

LNC had quite a few ups and downs over the last few weeks/months. I use the volatility to make money with the pullbacks, but am holding one position for long term. I believe in the future of the company in the long term

9405 · 7 April 2009

I would like to think that all companies big or small can make it through the tough times but it seems that this story of the sale happening is a bit long winded. The news that 3 more Linc employees from the Drilling and Exploration team were made redundant yesterday make it even more unlikely that they themselves believe the sale is going through. Common sense would think that if they strongly believed the sale to be progressing positively they would keep these people on, this comes after a number of D&E employees were made redundant in Jan.
Not saying that in this environment it is unheard of, but it does seem odd that they are making employees redundant in light of the recent news.

Make your own decision and check sources at Linc if doubtful.

glads262 · 7 April 2009

9405 said:
I would like to think that all companies big or small can make it through the tough times but it seems that this story of the sale happening is a bit long winded. The news that 3 more Linc employees from the Drilling and Exploration team were made redundant yesterday make it even more unlikely that they themselves believe the sale is going through. Common sense would think that if they strongly believed the sale to be progressing positively they would keep these people on, this comes after a number of D&E employees were made redundant in Jan.
Not saying that in this environment it is unheard of, but it does seem odd that they are making employees redundant in light of the recent news.

Make your own decision and check sources at Linc if doubtful.

9405.
"The News??"
How can you substantiate this. Do you have a link or written confirmation of this, or is this speculation. If so, not allowed on this site unless written as speculation.
Also, employee's made redundant in Jan?? Source??

How do you know they haven't increased subcontracting staff?? - They could be making staff redundant in Qld, and refocusing on SA also.

Where is your research on this??

ColB · 7 April 2009

Originally posted by Glads

9405.
"The News??"
How can you substantiate this. Do you have a link or written confirmation of this, or is this speculation. If so, not allowed on this site unless written as speculation.
Also, employee's made redundant in Jan?? Source??

How do you know they haven't increased subcontracting staff?? - They could be making staff redundant in Qld, and refocusing on SA also.

Where is your research on this??

Glads, you're spot on. Last time 9405 posted back on 16th January 2009 he was advised/warned to provide his source regarding his negative claims. He didn't bother to respond so he/she is obviously stirring the pot or trying to ramp the SP down. Has no credibility, you won't hear from him.

Nero64 · 8 April 2009

The company is cash flow negative.

More than a few people will be laid off if that sale doesn't go through.

james99 · 8 April 2009

Nero64 said:
The company is cash flow negative.

More than a few people will be laid off if that sale doesn't go through.

The majority of start up and first 5 year miners are cash-flow negative.

All UCG companies that I know of are cashflow negative; that is the case with a developing industry and why prices are generally low and allow for fantastic gains as the industry matures.

LNC has:

- 9000 pj potential resources, aside from the Teresa tenements;
- the worlds oldest operating UCG plant;
- the trial plant, rather than merely plans therefor;
- various tenements and JV type agreements;
- dual listing.

Its MC is $800 mil, and even if a sale is for only $600 mil, that values the balance of its assets for only $200 mil, ie at a CNX level.

Even if the sale is for $400 mil, it will have money in the bank, as opposed to the others who will still have to try and raise at some difficulty in todays climate.

I and nor I suspect do others online know whether the sale will proceed and for how much, but we can say:

- Bond will be pushing it as hard as possible;
- the new CFO will hardly want a non-sale to be his first involvement;
- the announcment is due on or before 20 April 2009.

So, sometime before then we may see a trading halt; and I want to be on the right side of that, ie invested.

glads262 · 9 April 2009

i think this talk of mass layoffs etc is a bit premature. It just goes to show that they hyped up this tenement sale a bit too much. LNC has no cashflow, but has shareholder support to continue drilling to prepare:
1. Coal tenements for sale (ie Teresa & that other one... (forget name)
2. One of the many other coal tenements that are surplus to needs.
3. Oil in SA
4. Coal in SA
5. Suitable sites in SA for future plans.

This will continue regardless. Maybe might slow like everyone else to conserve cash??

Realistically, if no sale progresses, then it may happen over the next 12 months as coal prices etc improve. It is an ASSET and does not disappear because their are no potential buyers.

glads262 · 17 April 2009

Well, its d-day again. Waiting for that announcement before the market opens!!

Interesting trading yesterday, tried to push higher again, but large sell order popped up at 2.23, then other large sell orders under this, then large buy orders under that. Kept in a thin trading range most of the day.

Large sell order seems to have disappeared, but still some large sells in the market.

We'll see how the action goes today, hopefully a halt sooner than later. This may be the last chance to get in before the SP rockets if announcement is positive.

Jazzee · 17 April 2009

I'm hoping it's today and we aren't left waiting over the w-end! It was difficult to pick up a trend in yesterday's trading.

Nero64 · 18 April 2009

What happens if they only sell Teresa for 400mill?

What happens if the market has already factored in the buy and after (If we are still alive ) the announcment the stock drops by 50c.

Don't assume the SP will rocket. It has already gone up 130% or so from its low this year.

When eveyone assumes then sometimes the opposite happens.

Santoro · 18 April 2009

With recent significant sp increases in coal stocks and the willingness of the chinese to secure resources during the GFC (for the future) one could conclude that the likelihood of a positive announcement is increasing....

Mickel · 20 April 2009

ASX announcement this morning-

"Linc Energy Limited (ASX: LNC) (OTCQX: LNCGY) is pleased to announce the successful completion of negotiations with its project partners, Marubeni Corporation, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) and Song Hong Energy of the Civil Works Contract and Works Contract to undertake Stage 1 of the Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) Tonkin project in the Red River Delta region of Vietnam."

From a previous announcement on 28 Mar 08-
"Linc Energy Ltd (LNC) announced that as part of its growing presence in Vietnam, the company signed an Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) yesterday agreeing to be part of stage 1 of the Red River Delta Consortium.

As part of this MOU, VINACOMIN will invest US$5million into Linc Energy, with the final commercial terms of this investment to be negotiated.
In addition to this investment into Linc Energy, it is proposed that Linc Energy will be paid a further US$5m for its services in developing a UCG gas field at the Red River Delta location."

So LNC will have some more $$ coming in but we are still waiting for THE announcement (due TODAY) regarding the sale of the Emerald coal tenements.

S/P currently up 3c at $2.15.

I'm a long term holder.

glads262 · 20 April 2009

Good to see positive announcement for LNC.
Smells like previous announcements. Announcing other things to stop price crashing when another delay announced.
You would think that if they signed after their "3-4 week" timeframe, it would not have been at the last minute on the last day of their projection. That would be too convenient. If they had a positive OR negative (ie no-go) announcement they would have made it by now (as per market rules)

Oh well, just have to wait another month!

nipper · 20 April 2009

I used to work for Linc in Drilling and Exploration and was sacked in January. I was told 5 geos in total would sacked. They cited cash flow problems and pulling out of QLD. I was willing to move to SA but they were not interested.

I've moved on and have no regrets. I am simply stating what I know from personal experience.

I'd prefer not to provide my name so I guess this comment may be classed as pure speculation.

Perhaps a concerned shareholder could contact Linc and ask themselves.

ralsy · 20 April 2009

Emailed LINC today about Tenement sale this is what they said.

It remains our intention to update the market today as per our commitment on 23rd March.

Regards
Janelle va de Velde
Manager Investor Relations

glads262 · 20 April 2009

ralsy said:
Emailed LINC today about Tenement sale this is what they said.

It remains our intention to update the market today as per our commitment on 23rd March.

Regards
Janelle va de Velde
Manager Investor Relations

Yup, at 410pm EST, the announcement will come.

"LNC are continuing discussions. They are going favourably. We expect to update the market by May the 23rd."

Might as well have a two hour nap waiting...

glads262 · 20 April 2009

nipper said:
I used to work for Linc in Drilling and Exploration and was sacked in January. I was told 5 geos in total would sacked. They cited cash flow problems and pulling out of QLD. I was willing to move to SA but they were not interested.

I've moved on and have no regrets. I am simply stating what I know from personal experience.

I'd prefer not to provide my name so I guess this comment may be classed as pure speculation.

Perhaps a concerned shareholder could contact Linc and ask themselves.

Nipper, whilst you have my condolences (belatedly) This is no different to any other mining/oil company at the moment. They are all halting new drilling etc because it is not worth it at current prices.
Its not worth LNC spending all their cash now on exploration & possibly running out again. This enables them to take them time & realise proper value for other assets such as Teresa. (ie they are probably waiting for Xinwen to up their offer which has obviously come in well below 1.5 billion)

If & When they get the cash, they will hire 1000 drillers etc & fast track every bit of exploration they have. (oil, coal, US, Vietnam, SA, Chinchilla, whereever!!).
This will be fantastic to watch - an exploration company with a billion dollars!!

Goal - to get the SP as high as possible, and fund expansion & Gas to Liquids via debt and asset sales.

My own opinion only.

glads262 · 20 April 2009

I meant 410pm Perth time...

Seriously, its 10 mins till end of the business day in EST. Why hang onto this?? I highly doubt they know any more now than they did this morning...

I would have thought that "update the market today" meant "during market hours??"

Mickel · 21 April 2009

It is disappointing to note that LNC has not kept it's commitment of 23 Mar 09
to report no later than in 4 weeks (ie 20 Apr 09) about the Teresa coal tenement sale progress.

I assume that they are still at least some days away from finalising the negotiations, otherwise they could call a trading halt for a day or two.

No doubt the Chinese are trying to screw them down on the price. Perhaps P Bond thinks there is a good chance that they will agree on an acceptable price at any moment. In that situation he could then make a favourable announcement rather than just say negotiations "are continuing".

But, how long can the market wait (without the S/P crashing) with no announcement?

S/P closed 20/4 at $2.13 opened this morning at $2.05 reached high of $2.10 and a low of $2.02. Currently trading at $2.07 on volume of 310,000.

As previously stated, I am a long term holder.

LNC - Linc Energy

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