LNC - Linc Energy

Smurf1976 · 5 February 2013

I am now out of this stock as it no longer matches my risk profile.

Maybe it will end up a goer, maybe it won't, but one of my investment rules is to avoid any company of a speculative nature which has come to mainstream attention. I used the recent media fuelled surge as an opportunity to sell.

Mr Z · 5 February 2013

notting said:
Tried to go short again at 2.15 but missed it.
Would have had the stop quickly in at 2.14 had I got it simply because the ...

A 1c stop?????????

What serious trader does that?!

Oh gimme a break....

Short @ 2.15 with a 1c stop is 2.16!!!!!!

You are gunna rip it right off my friend!!! but keep pulling.

Mr Z · 5 February 2013

Smurf1976 said:
I am now out of this stock as it no longer matches my risk profile.

Maybe it will end up a goer, maybe it won't, but one of my investment rules is to avoid any company of a speculative nature which has come to mainstream attention. I used the recent media fuelled surge as an opportunity to sell.

That I can respect....!

dogeatdog · 7 February 2013

Smurf1976 said:
I am now out of this stock as it no longer matches my risk profile.

Maybe it will end up a goer, maybe it won't, but one of my investment rules is to avoid any company of a speculative nature which has come to mainstream attention. I used the recent media fuelled surge as an opportunity to sell.

So Smurf, you were long LNC through former publicity events? (Diesel dash etc)
Linc certainly has always been a "speculative" play, and IMHO, PB certainly uses the media to enhance the image
of LNC.
I do wonder how many new retail are now trapped" long in the $3 range.
And like you Smurf, I'm on the sidelines, as this stock has enough short term news pending to make it a risky short play, as well as many skeptics which could drive it much further south.

Tezzad · 7 February 2013

Just wondering what the brains-trust thinks is a fair price for the stock? (regardless of whether your in or out) We all appear to have our own way of evaluating LNC. Would be interesting to see if we are all on the same page or if some of us are reading a different book. Currently with all the evidence I have at hand IMO 2.10- 2.20 is where it should be. Increases from here on in should be underpinned by earnings growth even-though I do enjoy the occasional HEADLINE.

Just notice quite high over night volumes in the US.

notting · 7 February 2013

Tezzad said:
Just wondering what the brains-trust thinks is a fair price for the stock? Currently with all the evidence I have at hand IMO 2.10- 2.20 is where it should be.

I'd subtract the debt from shares on issue multiplied by the stock price at x 1.51
If I was looking for a long short term trade, I might have crack at aound 1.60.

notting · 7 February 2013

notting said:
If I was looking for a long short term trade, I might have crack at aound 1.60.

Sorry I meant to say short term trade!!!
I'm yet to believe in this company, beyond it's ability to extract funds out of shareholders and lend against them!

Mickel · 8 February 2013

Tezzad, I don't think that increases over $2.20 will be based on earnings growth solely. There is much good news to come in the short term that, in time, will lead to earnings growth. But it is that good news that will drive the S/P up.

Based on closely watching the S/P movement over the last 9 or 10 months, learning from expert technical analysts such as MrZ, and various other research, I consider the following-

1. There is a 20% chance that the S/P will (at least temporary) fall below $2.00
2. There is a 70% chance that the S/P will be $3.00 by 30 Jun 13
3. There is a 30% chance that the S/P will be over $5.00 by 31 Dec 13

so at present I consider a fair S/P to be $2.80

All IMHO.

NB. at present the S/P is $2.31 on sales of 6M

Smurf1976 · 8 February 2013

dogeatdog said:
So Smurf, you were long LNC through former publicity events? (Diesel dash etc)
Linc certainly has always been a "speculative" play, and IMHO, PB certainly uses the media to enhance the image
of LNC.
I do wonder how many new retail are now trapped" long in the $3 range.
And like you Smurf, I'm on the sidelines, as this stock has enough short term news pending to make it a risky short play, as well as many skeptics which could drive it much further south.

My basic logic is that if a small company based in Brisbane, which is of a speculative nature, is mainstream news via every media outlet here in Tasmania and the price has already surged then there can't be too many people anywhere in the country who haven't heard about it. If someone is going to buy in on a speculative basis then they had almost certainly done so by that point.

Everyone's already in and it's speculative = too much risk for me. That's not specific to Linc, I'd take the same approach with any company of this nature. Maybe there is profit to be made, but there's an awful lot of downside potential in the share price and it's not as though it produces reliable dividends or something like that.

Past experience has taught me to not continue holding speculative stocks that have already hit the news headlines and seen a price surge.

notting · 8 February 2013

Mickel said:
2. There is a 70% chance that the S/P will be $3.00 by 30 Jun 13

Yep, techinically playing to that tune short term.
But arn't you a long term holder?
Or are you going to take it at 3, or at least put a trailing stop in?

Skatter · 8 February 2013

This share is defiantly showing a bull and bear market which is great. Im a noob at this but my speculation is LNC spend more money that they make. Which you would think LNC would at least need a good deal within the next 12 months. Capital raising?, oil production above forcast? Just the time frames and combination seem a bit unreachable. Another thing. Are people changing there gaming tactics or do we have new players having a seat on this stock?

Mickel · 11 February 2013

LNC has a new presentation out -

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-465.pdf

On page 20 they mention they have in excess of 20 commercial opportunities under consideration with UCG.

On page 32 they have projected timelines for their various operations in 2013.
This includes a target of 8,000 to 9,000 BOPD by the 4th Qtr and JV announcement for Shale Oil in the 3rd Qtr.

All positive but the S/P has had a wild ride so far today- opened $2.38 (up 7c), low $2.27 and high $2.42.
Currently $2.38 on sales of 4.5M

YELNATS · 11 February 2013

Skatter said:
This share is defiantly showing a bull and bear market which is great.?

Interesting observation but what does it add to our understanding of LNC?

YELNATS · 11 February 2013

Mickel said:
LNC has a new presentation out -

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-465.pdf

On page 20 they mention they have in excess of 20 commercial opportunities under consideration with UCG.

On page 32 they have projected timelines for their various operations in 2013.
This includes a target of 8,000 to 9,000 BOPD by the 4th Qtr and JV announcement for Shale Oil in the 3rd Qtr.

All positive but the S/P has had a wild ride so far today- opened $2.38 (up 7c), low $2.27 and high $2.42.
Currently $2.38 on sales of 4.5M

Is there anything new in this or does it just summarise what we already know? Maybe LNC could be a takeover target sometime down the track. I wonder if this is a part of their strategy.

Cheers. I hold although a reduced tranche after their surge to near $3.

notting · 11 February 2013

YELNATS said:
Maybe LNC could be a takeover target sometime down the track.

The psychiatric wards simply do not have that kind of capital.

Tezzad · 11 February 2013

Love this stock and hate it at the same time. As mentioned before Ive bought the dream. One should be emotionally detached from investment decisions. Could have made a tidy sum by selling at the top of the hype and bought back after the luster died away. Unfortunately didn't have the balls. Hats off to those who did. Good news stories are great but there's no substitute for tankers in service stations or ships full of coal. I hope they continue to forge on in the US as this still is there only tangible form of bankable income.

Interested in any other stock you guys may be keeping a watchful eye on? L/T Shareholder TeZ

Skatter · 11 February 2013

Get UMAIT drilled and bring on another partner(Asia)? or anything to spread the risk and share the cost. Same could be said for SA Shale and the right location for UCG. I then think spending will drop.

Smurf1976 · 11 February 2013

Tezzad said:
Good news stories are great but there's no substitute for tankers in service stations or ships full of coal. I hope they continue to forge on in the US as this still is there only tangible form of bankable income.

Indeed. There's a lot of hype and I like the company's ambitions. But in the real world, 20+ prospects are one thing, actually getting something up and running would give me (and others) far more confidence that it's all a goer.

It's like anything. Ambitious claims about anything are always suspect until at least some of them are actually delivered upon.

Tezzad · 23 February 2013

Hugh increase in volume in the US overnight, anyone got any idea why?

smalltimer · 23 February 2013

Looks like a big sales pitch going on in the US at the moment - Worth watching this video.
As I said, bit of a sales pitch, but good info.

http://moneymappress.com/pro/ECLAus...1638&s=937070&u=52134857&l=542933&g=96&r=Milo

LNC - Linc Energy

Smurf1976

Mr Z

Mr Z

dogeatdog

Tezzad

notting

notting

Mickel

Smurf1976

notting

Skatter

Mickel

YELNATS

Non illegitimus carborundum

YELNATS

Non illegitimus carborundum

notting

Tezzad

Skatter

Smurf1976

Tezzad

smalltimer

Similar threads

LNC - Linc Energy

Non illegitimus carborundum

Non illegitimus carborundum

Similar threads

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency