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JML - Jabiru Metals

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YOUNG_TRADER

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18 February 2006
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Don't miss out on this, I've watched it go from 34c to 44c (jumped on board today should have freed up funds earlier)

I've been scoping it out for the past few weeks, choose TZN over it as a pure Zinc play, but given the strength in Silver and Copper lately and that even if they come off from current levels this stock will be bonanza!

I think CSM its 33% shareholder will pay 80c easily for it.

But OXR also need JML's ore to blend with theirs so I think OXR might want a slice, take over bidding could see this hit $1+


Have a look at my excel sheet.

Note I still think TZN is the best pure Zinc play (and I still hold)
But for multi commodity type approach ie Zinc Copper and Silver JML appears to be the best.
 

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  • JML.xls
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Hi as a pure zinc play, what order of preference will u place on the following producers at current prices

ZFX, PEM, KZL, TZN? any others?

thx

mS
 
Hey MS,

Approach it like this, find Companies producing Zinc, see how much, find out their cash costs per lb Zinc, look at what brokers were forecasting it terms of profit at a given Zinc price then adjust and you get an idea of leverage, tey and find the smallest mkt cap company with the largest Zinc production (that is unhedged) and remember in a rising commodity environment the lowest margin producers venefit the most, ie a company who had good margins now has great, but company who had very slim margins now has very good margins, its all about %

Also TZN isn't in production, it will be releasing a BFS which I'm betting (and have been since the price was 70c) will catch the market by suprise and rocket the stock to $1.50 - $2 (from 95c now)

JML has unbelievable margins given that its Cash costs per ounce are 10c per lb Zinc (usually 40c) and given its copper silver and lead credits and its very high grades of Zinc!
 
Hey Young Trader on that idea of slim margins whats your thought's on psv
 
Kgee, haven't looked at PSV lately,


But Zinc, Silver and Copper fans don't overlook JML,


Have a look at my excel sheet above, save it and plug and play with the numbers
 
What about AIM . Sounds like a good Zinc share at a very low cost ??
 
Fab said:
What about AIM . Sounds like a good Zinc share at a very low cost ??
Click to expand...


Lets look @ the two shall we,


1. Project Location
JML is in Australia (Very Good)
AIM is in Burnika Faso (Where? exactly)

2.Financing/Funding
JML is fully funded and didn't have to do any hedging courtesy of its 33% shareholder CSM underwriting the debt, also has about $10m in cash for further exploration and development is almost complete (Debt funding with no hedging? nice)

AIM will require $100m of funds to develop its project

3. Cash Cost per lb Zn
JML 10c
AIM 18c


4. Commodity exposure
JML Zinc, Copper and Silver (Hmmmm all are going through the roof)
AIM (Zinc)



Well you do the research and the math and if you prefer a company that requires $100m in debt so as to develop a project in some unheard of West African Country that will be in production by 2008, over a company that is fully funded with no hedging and is thus fully leveraged to spot prices and has CSM as its 33% shareholder and is arguably the lowest cash cost per lb zinc play @ 10c and should be producing by end of the year, then by all means invest in Aim
 
Ok thanks. I did not know all this facts.
Are they any interesting mining company around 10 cents worth to have a look at at the moment ?
 
I know exactly how your thinking because I used to think like that a few years back, why invest in a 50c or $1 company when I can play 10c companies who can explode to 50c right?

Wrong, you must look @ the market caps of the companies is very important.

For example EXT is a 10c company (wll 12c) but it has close on 1 billion shares = a mkt cap of $100m

Like wise AIM has 750m shares + in the money options on issue @ 13.5c = $100m


Now JML has 350m shares on issue @ say 46c = $160m

So you see you must consider the mkt caps as well.


Good luck Fab
 
Where do you find this information (I am with Commsec) ? Does that mean that the highest the mark cap the better ?? I normally look at the P/E
 

Ok thx, what about INL then? it moved up the most below

Zinc Majors: ZFX, PEM, KZL, TZN, CBH
Zinc Minors: HER, AIM, JML, INL, UCL

thx

MS
 
Why INL then ?

Any thoughts down the same line for Uranium stocks ?
 
I'm sure I posted my thoughts on INL, on the INL thread so take a look, its not a Zinc play as such its reprocessing old dam tailings from a zinc mine and claims through the use of new chemicals that it can extract zinc from the tailings.


Also lol, I wouldn't call JML a minor, take a look at its cash generation capability, almost $50m p.a. free cash flows once it gets up and running!
 
where do you get the OXR link from... I thougt JML was part owned by Consolidated...

--------------------------------------------------------
Australia's Consolidated Eyes Titan, Jabiru Acquisitions 07/03/06

MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)-- Australia's Consolidated Minerals Ltd. (CSM.AU)Tuesday said it wants to acquire smaller miners Titan Resources Ltd. (TIR.AU) and Jabiru Metals Ltd. (JML.AU) as it switches its focus from manganese to nickel mining.
Tipping nickel mines will struggle to keep up with stainless steel demand from an expanding Chinese middle class, Kiernan said Consolidated hopes to grow nickel production to more than 20,000 metric tons a year by the end off 2008.
Kiernan said he can see Consolidated making both Titan and Jabiru "part of our business" in the future, expanding current stakes.
While Consolidated shares gained 14 cents, or 6.3%, to A$2.38, after Kiernan's presentation, they remained well below the A$2.56 they were at before its disappointing first-half result.
Consolidated's nickel expansion, from about 10,000 tons this year, will come from growth in the Kambalda region, where Consolidated mines nickel and where Titan, which is 20% owned by Consolidated, plans to mine.
"This company in two years time will be a nickel company which just happens to have a manganese operation," Kiernan said.
Consolidated owns 33% of Jabiru, which is planning to develop the Jaguar copper and zinc project in Western Australia.
 
Ahhhhh, thats whre thorough research comes in,


JML sells its ore to OXR who blends JML's high quality ore with its (OXR) low quality Ore to produce a concentrate that is very profitable,

So OXR needs JML's Ore Concentrates, so much so that they may wish to secure the company for itself!
 
Rafa, search for ann regarding their offtake, or their ore sales to OXR you'll see it in there

YOUNG_TRADER said:
I think CSM its 33% shareholder will pay 80c easily for it.

But OXR also need JML's ore to blend with theirs so I think OXR might want a slice, take over bidding could see this hit $1+
Click to expand...
 
HI don't own jml but wish I did when fat prophets reccommended them at .25
Maybe someone should see if they've got contractors for their expansions
WA has massive labour shortages at the moment.VRE has had considerable delays and a stock I own NST an exploration company has had all bar one of there field staff poached delaying the season by 6-8 weeks and from a report I read from BHP it's probaly right across the board
There is a lot to like about this company and Young Trader I know you hate pessimistic postings but maybe it's somthing that should be looked into???
 


Kgee, nonesense, I don't hate pessimisim as long as its accurate I feel its a vital part of formualting an understanding of a stock, in fact I'd go so far as to say, its a required factor in weighing everything up.

So labour supply shortages you say? Sounds like an industry wide thing, in which case no company will be imune, still like a strike it should only be temporary and its effects shouldn't be too great

Cheers
 
MalteseBull said:
this share sucks
Click to expand...


Thankyou for your well articulated, well thought, indepth comments and analysis Maltese,


I shall remind you of this in a few months time

What were you expecting 100% per day?

This time in February it was 24c now its 44-47c and your complaining?
 
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