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Is Stock Market "Trading" Any Different Than "Punting" on Horse Racing?

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ShareSuccess

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A technical analyst & or Trader study's The Behavior of Stocks & the Market in trying to Predict The future Movement so they may profit from such a Trade!

My Question is....Why can't one do the Same with Horse Racing?

Would love some Feedback as i Consider Studying the Behavior & Habits of a Trainer/Stable in my Quest to Predict the Future Movement of that Stable so that we may Profit from such a Trade the same way a Stock Market trader May do!
 
To See if My Thesis is Correct or simply a fantasy i shall track The Performance of a trainer & at some stage in the Future when i have enough data i will Begin to Trade Horses in my Quest to see if it is Possible to Profit from the Punt using a similar Methodology to Trading the Stockmarket!

TRAINER:....G & A Williams.....Based in Western Australia

For Future Reference,it has been reported that this trainer has a ROI in the last 12 Months of 11.9% ROI By Punting on all their Horses running, but in studying this stable & using what i consider to be my "Secret Sauce" i am going to try and improve upon this by analysing certain Data points to try & Profit from Punting/Trading in a Similar way to the Stock Market!
 
RESEARCH ONLY...NOT TIPS!

TRAINER: G & A WILLIAMS...Western Australia

26/7/25...BELMONT

R2/2
R3/5
R6/5
R6/6
R6/13
R8/10
 
ShareSuccess said:
RESEARCH ONLY...NOT TIPS!

TRAINER: G & A WILLIAMS...Western Australia

26/7/25...BELMONT

R2/2
R3/5
R6/5
R6/6
R6/13
R8/10
Click to expand...
RESEARCH ONLY...NOT Tips!

TRAINER: G & A WILLIAMS...Western Australia

26/7/25...BELMONT

R2/2
R3/5...1st...$2.90...$1.40
R6/5...3rd..$4..50
R6/6
R6/13
R8/10

Was There a Trade/s Here?.....Bet Until You win...2/1= $2.90= 45% ROI
 
Last edited:
Good evening @ShareSuccess
For mine a most complex scenario this one -
Why can't one do the Same with Horse Racing?

rcw1 is a gambler. 100% ... ha ha ha ha However rcw1 also trades
Will try and explain ... the rcw1 opinion

Traders that know what they are doing take many losses whilst attempting to keep the carnage to a minimum. Sounds very strange rcw1 knows that .... but traders are most cognizant of the fact they are w r o n g ... pucked up... so forth. Not winning on every trade and taking losses when the conditions dictate same is essentially what makes traders what they are, with the overall outcomes hopefully realising more coin going into the trading account than out. Maintaining this over many decades is very very difficult and what makes successful achievement most gratifying.

Consequently, taking losses when conditions indicate they should is what allows tradsers to be profitable over many trades. So, in accordance with this, holding losing positions when conditions have adversely changed after original entry conditions were good, is not a sound action for a trader.

The mindset of winning ... all the time, is the gamblers Achilles Heal ... predicting that salute, 'trying to predict the future movement' is simply not going to happen. This gambling addiction is what has made many people and families very unhappy. Having said this, there was a time that the more times rcw1 told himself that, over many decades the more rcw1 began to believe it ... ha ha ha ha

In all seriousness bloke, be very careful please. rcw1 is sure you know yourself around a track and stuff and certainly have a chop at it but be bloody careful. rcw1 don't trust trainers or bookies for that matter. When it's all said and done, probably have much better chance at things to target a betting splurge on one particular high performing jockey in a single meet.

Kind regards
rcw1
 

The mindset of winning ... all the time, is the gamblers Achilles Heal ... predicting that salute, 'trying to predict the future movement' is simply not going to happen.​


Interesting Point rcw1.....But, yes there is a but ha ha, isn't this simply describing someone who trades the stock market also?

The only difference i see is the trader in the stock market can Hold on for dear life in the hope of the Stock recovers to get their money back.

I hope i'm not being a Knowitall here but as a reference, i have been punting/Gambling however one wishes to look at it for around 55 years give or take 1 ha ha ha

Started way Back in my mother's Womb
 
Comes down to the level of information doesn't it?

With any reasonably liquid stock there are numerous trades each and every trading day and there's comprehensive information available about them via any broker or charting software.

Versus horse that run a race far less frequently, greatly increasing the chance that a win or loss represents an outlier rather than a trend. I've no idea how many races they actually run, but I don't think it's even daily?
 
It's the same only different

*Create a positive expectancy
*Position sizing
*Risk/Money management
etc

The main difference is that, like the casino, a negative expectancy is ipso facto built in in racing, on even worse terms than even the casino.

However unlike games of pure chance, one *can use their knowledge of form, breeding, and statistics such as @ShareSuccess has mentioned to flip that expectancy to the positive.

I do believe position sizing is more complex than with shares and if one can crack that conundrum you can optimise the whole caper.

{[(and a bit of inside knowledge/knowing people in low places certainly helps )]}

My own system, is rather heterodox and far more mathematically complex compared to most, as is my evaluation of results and ROI calculations.

Return on total capital employed consistently outperforms any trading system I have used, though with a small risk of ruin.

Counter to this I use a much much smaller bank in my racing system, compared to trading.

I've detailed some of this in my punting thread, and still fine tuning how I calculate return on capital vs risk of ruin and can dial that up or down depending on my spreadsheet inputs.

So is it any different to share trading?
Yeahbutno. Again it's the same only different.
 
One in the racing game that sticks out to me is the punters are relying on two things
1) is the neddie going to perform at its best,
2) a lot relies on the jockey riding to his/her capabilities.
When people are involved there is always some form of shadow hanging over the event.
Of course there are stewards at these events to catch out any foul play, but its never perfect.
 
3) rum

ha ha ha ha hahah a
 
Consider this

Trading a stock is a one horse race , if other stocks perform better it has no bearing on your stock.
You can pull out of a stock trade instantly if your punting a horse you have to ride it to the end .
You can add to your position if your stock is going well you can’t add to a horse race once it’s off
You can decrease your position if your stock is under performing - can’t do that during a race.

Very different
 
Thank You all for your comments & views!

In all honesty i thought in starting this thread that i would open up a Wasp Nest & be Stung buy A swarm of negative comments, but i have been "Pleasantly surprised"by all The Kind Words & Your Knowledge that i am Grateful for
 
You can trade the movements of odds changing, *exactly* like a stock, on betting exchanges like Betfair. I don't, but many do.

Additionally, you can enter, add or cash out during a race, after the start and while it's still running.

As I said in my above post, there are certainly differences, but there are similarities if you make it so.
 
Putting My Thesis to the Test.....Simply Replacing a Stock with a Horse Trainer & Trading that Horse Trainer!
The Strategy is Basically Trading each Runner level Stake!....Stopping on a Winner When in Profit!...This is not to suggest we will Not have losing Days Trading.....The Fact is All traders have Losing Trades!

TEST 1
TRAINER
A & S FREEDMAN
Trade 1.....Trading Pakenham Today
2 Bets/1 winner= $3.80
PROFIT=90 % ROI
​
 
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TEST 1
TRAINER
A & S FREEDMAN
Trade 2.....Trading Sandown Today...30/7
2 Bets/1 winner= $6.20
PROFIT=210% ROI​
 
TEST 1
TRAINER
A & S FREEDMAN
Trade 3.....Trading Sale Today...31/7
2 Bets/0 winner= $0.00
LOSS=100% LOI​
 
TEST 1
TRAINER
A & S FREEDMAN
Trade 4.....Trading Cranbourne Today...1/8
2 Bets/1 winner= $2.10
PROFIT=5% ROI​
 
TEST 1
TRAINER
A & S FREEDMAN
Trade 5.....Trading Flemington Today...2/8
4 Bets/0 winner= $0.00
LOSS=100% LOI​
 
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