Intraday charts - what can they tell us?

I'm interested in the predictive power of intraday charts and was hoping people might share their views on the subject. What can the intraday movements of stocks tell us and can they be used to predict the next days price action?

As an example, lets look at todays SBM chart (see attachment). At 12:00pm today SBM announced that they had made a new gold discovery at Tower Hill, Leonora. After trading resumed shortly after, SBM traded on heavy volume and rose from 44 cents to 50 cents by 1:00pm, less than an hour later. Between 1:00pm and 4:00pm SBM stabilised on moderate volume and fluctuated between 48 cents and 50 cents until the close of trade, finishing at 49 cents. Does the fact SBM stabilised on moderate volume during the afternoon indicate a lack of sellers? If so, is this likely to continue tomorrow?

What can the intraday movements of a stock teach us and can these movements be predictive? How important is it that a stock finish on or near its high for the day? How important is volume? Do intraday support and resistance levels exist... and if they do, what can we learn from them? How does market depth fit into all this? What influence do announcements have?

Am interested to hear people's views on this topic.

stockGURU said:

I'm interested in the predictive power of intraday charts and was hoping people might share their views on the subject. What can the intraday movements of stocks tell us and can they be used to predict the next days price action?

As an example, lets look at todays SBM chart (see attachment). At 12:00pm today SBM announced that they had made a new gold discovery at Tower Hill, Leonora. After trading resumed shortly after, SBM traded on heavy volume and rose from 44 cents to 50 cents by 1:00pm, less than an hour later. Between 1:00pm and 4:00pm SBM stabilised on moderate volume and fluctuated between 48 cents and 50 cents until the close of trade, finishing at 49 cents. Does the fact SBM stabilised on moderate volume during the afternoon indicate a lack of sellers? If so, is this likely to continue tomorrow?

What can the intraday movements of a stock teach us and can these movements be predictive? How important is it that a stock finish on or near its high for the day? How important is volume? Do intraday support and resistance levels exist... and if they do, what can we learn from them? How does market depth fit into all this? What influence do announcements have?

Am interested to hear people's views on this topic.

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Wow, so many questions. Where do you want to start?

I can help out by pointing out that there was a lot of volume around 12pm. May be its because of the volatility of the markets and buyers are cautious or it could be that someone knows something.

I don't know why they didn't buy earlier because I find that on up days, most of the buys are in the mornings. I see this a lot on the up days of the indexes.

Daniel

stockGURU said:

What can the intraday movements of a stock teach us and can these movements be predictive? How important is it that a stock finish on or near its high for the day? How important is volume? Do intraday support and resistance levels exist... and if they do, what can we learn from them? How does market depth fit into all this? What influence do announcements have?

Am interested to hear people's views on this topic.

Click to expand...

Predictive, uhrrr,uhrrr.

Unjumble this:

iraeelvt

stockGURU said:

I'm interested in the predictive power of intraday charts and was hoping people might share their views on the subject. What can the intraday movements of stocks tell us and can they be used to predict the next days price action?

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I think its a matter of chosing a timeframe and trading it. But for me the schools out on this.Its a topic I'm looking into currently.
If for arguments sake you analyse a stock using Daily data its thought that you should trade it using daily data.
Currently I'm of the opinion that lower timeframes can be used for timing.Finessing entry and exit.Using the base analysis as the controlling analysis.
However onething I have found is that taking isolated events as longterm indication of future price direction is fraught with danger. One needs to take notice of the overall picture painted in all timeframes.

Below is a Tradeguider VSA chart of SBM daily.You'll note there is background weakness for SBM and this announcement is seen as a bottom reversal.



How strong that reversal is will be seen in the price action over the next few days.Personally I think youll find SBM struggling.Shorter timeframes may well help out with the picture.I'll place it on a Realtime screen today at the office and post up anything of interest if you like.

As an example, lets look at todays SBM chart (see attachment). At 12:00pm today SBM announced that they had made a new gold discovery at Tower Hill, Leonora. After trading resumed shortly after, SBM traded on heavy volume and rose from 44 cents to 50 cents by 1:00pm, less than an hour later. Between 1:00pm and 4:00pm SBM stabilised on moderate volume and fluctuated between 48 cents and 50 cents until the close of trade, finishing at 49 cents. Does the fact SBM stabilised on moderate volume during the afternoon indicate a lack of sellers? If so, is this likely to continue tomorrow?

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Id say lack of buyers forcing prices to rise in the search for stock.I see PLENTY of sellers willing to fill buyers.

What can the intraday movements of a stock teach us and can these movements be predictive?

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Indicative Yes.

How important is it that a stock finish on or near its high for the day?

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Can be but also range and volume are important coupled with the overall price action STORY

How important is volume?

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Can be but again in isolation is only one tool.UNDERSTANDING volume is very important as to what type it is. EG you and I see the volume traded here differently.(I once saw it as you do).

Do intraday support and resistance levels exist... and if they do, what can we learn from them?

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Yes and yes.

How does market depth fit into all this?

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In my view it doesnt,I personally dont give a hoot about depth.I'm interested in the point of exchange---the now.

What influence do announcements have?

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Plenty ---but its the perception of the market toward the announcement that will determine positive or negative effect.

60 min chart not seeing anything out of the ordinary with this move.
However you'll note that it was right up with it on price movement back on the 17th.
So far the ho hum response to yesterdays trading (Announcement) appears to be on the money.

Thanks for the feedback tech/a!

SBM does indeed appear to be weakening a little. Some of that is probably a reaction to the down day for the DOW last night and a slight weakening in the gold price.

I have a lot of learning to do with regards to intraday charts but I do find the topic very interesting and hope to start learning to identify patterns such as the bottom reversal and others.

I'm interested in the predictive power of intraday charts and was hoping people might share their views on the subject. What can the intraday movements of stocks tell us and can they be used to predict the next days price action?

Click to expand...

Recognize and anticapte not predict

Multiple Time Frame Analysis


Throughout this century, technicians have used a multiple time frame approach to developing their technical outlook for the stock market. Back in early 1900's, Richard Wyckoff recommended that you keep weekly, daily and intraday charts to track the pulse of the market. He noted that you would first see changes in the trend on the shortest of time frames, and as you climbed to higher and higher time frames the effects of a new trend emerging would take shape.

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What makes up the character of a bar on one time frame
is seen in the time frames inside that bar..

However unless Volume and activity are such to make a Bar significant.
Then the smaller time frames are in effect just noise in the longer time frame .

Do intraday support and resistance levels exist

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Do they exist on anytime frame ?

resistance is selling pressure
support is buying pressure

They both exist only in the present
and can act only in the present

It is only selling that is happening right now
that can be resistive.

Volume is a key to identifying this support and resistance
and is seen in down and up moves respectively


But really put '' time frame " aside

It really a matter of How fast is the work being done
Is there anything being done..

And looking at various time frames to reveal a true picture


motorway

Just noticed that the 5 min timeframe had this alert after yesterdays quick rise.