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International Index Trading

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You know the other day when i was looking, i couldn't find a chart with this much volume (only looking at futures), so i didn't see the selling climax...but this chart shows it.

So statistically we have a first, coupled with this blow off top....is anyone game to short this uptrend now?

Cheers,
 

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I'm not game to short it on rhe face of it (apart from day trades).

We are above resistance in the higher time frames and don't see any further resisitance until ~13,200. Volume as pointed out by CanOz duly noted though, I would just be looking for additional evidence. Monday will be telling.

Same story in the Spooze.

Nasdaq is a slightly different picture however basically at resistance, muddying the waters a bit (as Nas can be a leading indicator) I'd be more inclined to short this index or the russel.

FWIW

The cubes (nasdaq ETF)\/
 

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will look to fade any outrageous spikes but for tomorrow anyway will be looking for a gap up and trending up day for a new all time high on ASX - don't think we'll get a clear picture until mid-week once Europe & US have gotten through Monday

all the best!
 
CanOz said:
Thanks Wayne, i've also got his book, Technical Trading Tactics, have you read it?

Cheers,
Click to expand...
No I haven't read any of his material, but John knows his stuff. I have heard him speak on a teleseminar... CBOT or somewhere. Impressed.

He has another book... Pivots and Candlesticks or something like that as well.
 

I am with Wayne here CanOz, apart from intra day, there is no way I would be holding an overnight short position on the Dow Jones......

Strong accumulation, coupled with break of all time highs signifies to me that this bull run has further to go for the US. And even though the ASX is way way way over extended, we will probably follow the US upward.

I agree with Wayne in saying that perhaps the Russel or the QQQQ's would be a better bet on the short side. However, in general I think we will see further gains ahead on the US and this should gravitate both other indicies upwards. I will watch with interest on Monday night however!

One place I always go to for a review of the US market is the Alpha Trends Blog Spot.

http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/

Brian Shannon has excellent down to earth commentary on the index, as well as suggestions for stocks to play. It's worth a look!

Cheers
Reece
 
reece55 said:
I am with Wayne here CanOz, apart from intra day, there is no way I would be holding an overnight short position on the Dow Jones......

Cheers
Reece
Click to expand...

yes hear what you're saying re: o/n Dow shorts Reece, 30 stocks is not really a good reflection of the general market.

there's a bit in here supporting Nasdaq topping soon-ish fwiw

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7405.htm

anyone else have a problem with the shadowtrader vid? keeps hanging for me at 5.09...
 
CanOz said:
Great link, forgot about option expiry, explains the volume

I think i'll sign up for that.

Cheers,
Click to expand...
I've watched his videos through www.redoption.com for while. He's pretty good. It is good to get other peoples thinking.

But the danger is in defaulting to the gurus thoughts instead of your own. Just something to be aware of IMO.
 

Thanks for the link Edwood..... Nice review, I like it......

No issues here, i am at about 10 mins through with no issues....

Re the Dow, I agree it is not a great indication of the US market as a whole - but its a great instrument to trade intra day because of the leverage you can get with minimal margin requirements. The S&P 500 is the best indication of the market as a whole, I just wouldn't trade it long because of the finance costs on a CFD (which is the only way I trade overseas indicies at present). However, the Spyders themselves are just shy of there high as well, my view is that it will break through that area in the coming months. I do see a retrace at some stage however.......

Cheers
Reece
 
cheers Reece, must be my laptop, will try it again

know what you mean Wayne re: "guru's", got suckered into a couple of painful bearish plays last year but thankfully am over that stage & follow my own plan these days. still like to keep up with what people are thinking tho

some good stuff coming out on the thread - cheers for setting it up!
 
Interesting re the Dow. Scrolling through the Dow constituents, not many are at all time highs as would be suggested by the index itself. Apparently, the weightings are distributed via price, rather than capitalization.

This makes it even worse as a measure of the overall market.

As you say it doesn't stop it being a great trading vehicle, just a flousy index.
 
oo-er missus! bit of a pop-n-drop on ASX today, thought we might have seen a bit more follow-through on the rise. Europe & US could be interesting then
 
I've been watching the reverse correlation between the yen lately. When the carry trade was in the news recently there was a strong reverse correlation between the yen and the US indices.

That reverse correlation has broken down substantially as the carry trade scare has abated...

...but worth noting, The yen is once again showing signs of a pulse and is up against the major pairs today so far, particularly up against the USD.

Mightn't mean anything, just a heads up.
 
This pair is the USD/JPY, and it could be forming a H&S pattern. This would be in fact, correlated to the US indices if the theory has merrit right?

Cheers,
 

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To avoid confusion

Forex is quoted USD/JPY whereas futures (what I refer to) is quoted as JPY/USD so the carts are the inverse of each other.

So yes forex would be correlated (for the purposes of this discussion) whereas the futures are "reverse" correlated.

So yes, in your case, correlated.
 

well spotted guys

out of interest how come you use the future & not the FX Wayne?
 
evening fellow index punters

Funny day for me, sat through the morning session on the nikkei, which was just a little bit slow.

Went out to have lunch with Mrs Frink, thinking I wasn't going to miss out on much. BIG mistake

Oh well. Always tomorrow

Today's chart of the nikkei
 

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