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Improving Chart Analysis

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wayneL said:
Midnight Oil "Blue Sky Mine"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srDfpziUewE
Click to expand...

Wouldn't I like to pick a few "Blue Sky Miners" of my own!? Off topic but what do you think of CQT's prospects as a "blue skyer"??

Also off topic, but Midnight Oil will go down in OZ history as one of the greatest "socially conscious" bands of all time.....and rightly so! :topic (thought if I put the smiley in, I wouldn't get into trouble)
 
wayneL said:
Hey we got everything ready now... seating, beer, munchies, music....

lets get on with the show
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I can be a little more candid now I've been here for a few weeks...........Definition of Wayne........................."Pot stirrer"/ scalawag/rabble- rouser/agitator................or he is just simply "bored" and looking for some "cheap" entertainment....................T or F.........
 
Wave.

I personally believe Elliot has good credibility.Always have.Its one on the few forward looking techniques (Steidlmayer/Frank D being the others) which have any reliability in analysis.Worth learning.

Fib appears everywhere in nature,and has its place in the markets.As a stand alone indicator---not much value.

Magdoran

As expected your just out to nail anyone who doesnt agree with Gann.
Its a common ploy of Gannists to turn the arguement back on the instigator of doubt.
Rather than ask which aspects of Gann the poster disagrees with I'd really like to see practical demonstrations of this quote below.

The concept of forecasting (which is probably a misnomer) is like a project management discipline - you assess the risks with a risk management plan looking at probabilities and assigning risk mitigation approaches for contingencies
Click to expand...

My personal thoughts on Gann analysis is that I dont believe it can be practically applied to trading to make a consistent profit.I'm yet to see a practical demonstration---in realtime.If your saying it cannot be used as STAND ALONE analysis then fair enough.Its good for amusement value only.

This is the 3rd time Ive asked in this thread.
 

Tech,

I have to say I've heard you state that positive view on EW before, so I vouch for you there in case anyone thinks Tech is casting EW and some forms of Gann in the same class.

Also, the impression I get from what I've seen of Magdoran's explanations is that Gann is not used as a "STAND ALONE" tool by him- but I may be correced on this. (However, to go on to dismiss its benefits if it's used in conjunction with other tools is another issue and Mag would probably say it has helped him make consistent profits).

Another point to note is that many market technicians use a mixture of different forms of analysis (eg EW & traditional TA or volatility/statistical studies and general swing trading tactics or price cycle and fundamental studies), that in itself does not suggest that any one form of analysis should be dismissed but rather that its complementary aspects should be valued.

btw, I don't use Gann atm but I would like to have a look at it later.

I just don't want to see apparent disagreement over something that you both actually agree on, apart from that let the debate continue.

Also gents, let's keep it civil please, no need for character assassination.

Great thread so far....
 
Hello tech/a,


I get the impression you are a kind of latter-day crusader, the Adelaide version of a “Spanish inquisitor”, torturing victims along the way in the name of your religion – “tech/a-ism”. I’ve seen you impale unsuspecting “heretics” in the past who did not bow down and worship the “one true god” and burnt them at the stake.

I really don’t think I fit your classic definition of a “heretic” straw man version of a “Gannist” - some one engaged in a “hocus pocus smoke and mirrors” money making sham, mixed with arcane secret society meetings in clandestine catacombs akin to the “Priory of Scion”.

In fact, I reject that label when it applies to me since I’m more of a hybrid trader, and make a distinction between those who immerse themselves in the whole mystique of Gann, and those who are essentially technical analysts who use some tools pioneered by Gann – big difference (it’s like saying bunyip and I are the same because we are both technical analysts. Sure, we have similarities, but there are important distinctions too).

I’m primarily a chartist – you know, look at a chart with open high low close bars and volume. Then I have a vocabulary of technical analysis patterns – ranging from candlestick patterns (ala Bigalow and others), basic patterns like gaps, double tops/bottoms, head and shoulders and all that stuff (but I have refined notions of these things), then pattern of trend in different time frames (daily, weekly, monthly).

I was into Elliott Wave analysis long before exploring Gann concepts. I see wave structure as an integral part of my technical analysis “vocabulary” to be used when appropriate. My Elliott Wave theory is heavily influenced by Prechter and Frost. So I’d be happy to wear the Elliott Wave tag as much as Gann, as much as being a straight chartist. I’m all of these. They are a “fusion” (like that barney!).

Then I have bolted on some Gann concepts onto this foundation instead of using moving averages and oscillators. It’s really not that hard to pick up the basic techniques when it comes to McLaren influenced concepts of division of the range – essentially extensions and retracements, very similar to the tools Radge uses with Fibonacci extensions and retracements, but with slightly different increments. All you’re doing is measuring statistical deviations with a tool. It isn’t that big an ask really. Add this to pattern analysis, and you are able to make estimates of where support/resistance in price is likely to be, and assess probabilities.

It’s like I said, just look at project management discipline - you assess the risks with a risk management plan looking at probabilities and assigning risk mitigation approaches for contingencies (this is what you do with methodologies like Prince 2 or Rational Unified Process in IT implementations).

Add to this again when appropriate the concept of time cycles (using Gann squares), and you can measure trends using similar concepts to price extensions and retracements, but on the time axis (again, a bit like Frank Dilernia). This is very helpful for position trading derivatives with a time element.

You seem to think Dilernia and Rage are OK with what they do – Radge makes EW/fib based forecasts, and Dilernia uses a time based approach. So you seem to have accepted that you can use techniques to forecast using price, and time, don’t you? So what’s the big deal? This isn’t rocket science…

I think you have scarified too many victims on the alter of “tech/a-ism”, and I question your preconceived notions about Gann until you make the effort to study it rather than just become this enraged bull in a china shop every time you see the word “Gann”. You can give up on this tact of trying to frame me as an evil “Gannist”. There is a big distinction between various users of any style of T/A.

This isn’t “the Revenge of Sith”, and I’m not trying to seduce you to the dark side. Every time you feel the rush of blood to your head, maybe you should see a hypnotherapist, or see the film “Anr Management” and start singing “I’m so pretty”. (Oh, I’d love to see that!)


Yours in praise and worship of the holy saint tech/a



Brother Magdoran
 
wayneL said:
Question for wavepicker:

Do you think the wedge pattern on the SP500 from July This year til now, qualifies as an ending diagonal?



At least one E-Wave blogger I know thinks so.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Hi Wayne,

an ending diagonal is an impulse whereby waves 1,3,5 each subdivide into 3's.
Therefore if this is an ending diagonal it is probably not finished as yet. I actually was bearish on this pattern some weeks ago(via some posts I sent to Magdoran and Richkid), but it continues to subdivide and that may well be the wrong assumption.

That is where some extra work is in order to clarify ambigious wave counts needs to be done IMO, before jumping the gun and assuming an ending diagonal and double top combo, only to get stopped out.

There are 2 cycles in the S&P which are consistant back to the low of 2002/2003. They are the 20 week cycle and the 32 weeks cycle. Both these bottomed the approximately 20/21st July. If that is the case, then being quite reasonable length cycles, that would imply a rally of 10-16 weeks before they reach a crest. We are now 9 weeks in from that low. Therefore based on this, there is a good chance this rally may lead to new marginal recovery highs in the weeks ahead. That means about the 1st week of November for the larger of these 2 cycles to reach a peak. Of course there are other smaller cycles in play as well.

Although E waves can be a great tool, but they too have limitations and gaps. That is why it's necessary IMO to use other tools to help quantify wavecounts and potential EW patterns.

Hope that helps
 
wayneL said:
***pulls up a chair, six pack of Stella and a bowl of nuts***

This is getting interesting
Click to expand...

Hope you had a good seat for the show... exit stage right!


Mag
P.S. Was that you I could hear crunching away back stage?
 
Yours in praise and worship of the holy saint tech/a
Click to expand...

Well thanks for that.

Now you were going to demonstrate the use of Gann in the following.

It’s like I said, just look at project management discipline - you assess the risks with a risk management plan looking at probabilities and assigning risk mitigation approaches for contingencies
Click to expand...

Looking forward to it.
 
Yup, barney,


lurv maj 7ths - even the minor version is fun too...


Really, you supported Cold Chisel, and Midnight Oil! Wow, what a buzz!

I did see Midnight Oil at the old Sandringham Commodore before they were famous, and Garet was punching holes in the ceiling which at the time we thought was so funny. This big bald lanky guy gyrating around the small stage.

What fun, I played in some bands, but nothing like backing such big names. I used to play lead and rhythm, but I’m pretty rusty now. Can still play, but no where near as nimble. I still have an electric and acoustic, but they get dusty these days…

Are you still playing professionally?


Mag
 

Hey "Mag", I don't wish to get between you and tech "tearing each other apart", but I gotta say.........I reckon you would be one crazy s.o.b.!! (And I mean that in the nicest possible way :southpark ) You and Tech as far as trading, are speaking a different language to me, but you certainly gave me a grin tonight
"Fusion"...you are speaking my language now ........in a word (Al Dimeola.... :guitar: well two words!)
Now you guys get back to it cause I am learning some good stuff here, and being entertained in the meantime.....well done!
 
Ohhhh, so funny barney!

I could hear the Carpenters singing “can’t we stop, hurting each other…” – I’m killing myself! Then I hear the alien song they sang and think of tech…


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. You know, it’s funny, but talking with a fellow muso brings all the crazy wild days back to me, such fun!
 
tech/a said:
Well thanks for that.

Now you were going to demonstrate the use of Gann in the following.



Looking forward to it.
Click to expand...
Awwww Come on techie!


I think those aliens must have abducted the real you (the ones the Carpenter’s were singing about), the replacement’s far to civil…

Can’t even get a growl out of you these days…


Yours in mirth


Magdoran
 


Yeah Mag, still doing a bit Only part time now days in a duo on mid north coast...nothing to get excited about.........still do some session work on a few gospel albums over the last few years ......I enjoy that cause I have to "create" something out of nothing......thought you must have been a muso.......I've still use my 70's Les Paul black beauty .........I like min 7ths more than maj 7th's too!! .....anyway I'm off topic so I'm out of here!! Cheers :topic
 
Magdoran said:
Awwww Come on techie!
I think those aliens must have abducted the real you (the ones the Carpenter’s were singing about), the replacement’s far to civil…

Can’t even get a growl out of you these days…
Click to expand...

The trip to the UK must have mellowed him, but it's still early days yet. Just keep mentioning the Gann word or maybe even the R word.

I have some extra munchies to add to WayneL's in case we need them.

Magdoran, I believe I have seen you describe your approach before or part of it on another forum (about 12 months or so ago). At the time I thought it may have been it bit of an overly complicated approach rather than a KISS based approach. I believe in keeping it simple and only use complexity when it is required.

Are you still using the same approach or have you refined it more through time?

A lot of information is in the chart itself, without being overly complex and too many squiggles of any form don't really change the basic information in the chart.

Cheers.
 

Its pretty easy to pick those who have nothing to contribute.
They have nothing to contribute.
 
Hello Les,


Congratulations by the way on that stellar pick of AUM, what a winner that was!

Kind of you to bring some food to the party… just make sure you keep your neck a safe distance away from Wayne at night!

Interestingly I have a lot of respect for Tech, even though I’m rattling his cage at the moment. I do genuinely salute his efforts on RC and take my hat off to anyone who goes public like that. It takes big kahunas.

Yes, that was me posting on RC around a year ago, and the core ideas are still there, but you’re right, it has been refined as I try to get the approach to maturity, but I’m juggling expanding my derivatives knowledge on the one front and trying to marry the two disciplines on the other.

The problem is that while it looks complicated (and in a sense I’d call it involved), at the heart of it, it is quite straight forward. But there is a check list of things to do, kind of like the process of checking a plane at the airport – maintaining it. It’s a bit like learning to drive, you’ve got to steer while applying the accelerator and changing gears… Once you get the hang of it, it becomes a lot more straight forward. But it does take time to work it out because there are subtleties that aren’t obvious…

Agreed about the information in the chart. I often start by looking at a straight bar chart with volume and nothing else. Then I have a series of things I look for, and do the due diligence depending on the pattern I see, to determine the type of trend, and what tools to use.

Here’s a recent example that I sent off to wavepicker on Friday 22 of August for Brent Crude oil futures. The first one identified a time and price point where I projected Brent would be on the 6th of September (acceptable error factor +/- 1 day), the target price was $66.23.

The strategy was to enter short, and exit half the position at this price level or exit half around the 6th of September. As you can see, the low price hit $66.11 on the 7th of September. The stop loss was set at $75.15 (although it would have to close above this level).

Where I was wrong was that I expected a bounce here, and was looking for a higher low to go long if it looked like it was going to retest the high. This clearly failed, so the long strategy is no longer in contention currently.

Hope this makes sense.


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. I couldn’t trade this because I hadn’t found a suitable instrument to trade Brent with that I’m happy with.

P.P.S. Tech, while you have many qualities, persuasion is not one of them...
 

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