That is the sort of information that could only come from the "Lemming Daily News". That will give us great buying oportunities on the way down if many lemmings follow that advice.
That is the sort of information that could only come from the "Lemming Daily News". That will give us great buying oportunities on the way down if many lemmings follow that advice.I believe, from my research - and I spend typically around 20 hours a week reading on market related matters - that the allords is destined for a number in the 3000 range before global markets rally and we can again invest with some confidence.
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Nothing contradictory in what I wrote: I have no idea if the allords will be higher tomorrow than today, or higher next year than today.
I am confident that significant falls are ahead of us as the global malaise we are experiencing has not resolved itself. Resolution could be less than a year, could be more?
I believe, from my research - and I spend typically around 20 hours a week reading on market related matters - that the allords is destined for a number in the 3000 range before global markets rally and we can again invest with some confidence.
People have good reason to be fearful of market direction: There is nothing on the horizon that suggests we a close to improvement. In fact the signposts clearly point to massive financial debt burdens in the US rolling across the world and dragging us further down. The 5 trillion debt carried by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac alone suggest something more dire than than Northern Rock Building Society bailout is about to happen.
Unlike you, I'm not OK saying I don't know where the market is going. I have a very high degree of confidence that significant falls are ahead. By the same token, there will be some intermittent rallies as well, and I will sell several of my long term holdings into these, and retain only a few energy and metals (mostly gold/copper) plays.
It's wedgeish, but too early to call anything bullish I think.
It's wedgeish, but too early to call anything bullish I think.
4800 ish support probably assisting and Uncle Ben self protective measures coming into effect.
I think we can all agree that there is volatility around, however to suggest the all ords will drop to 4k is a big call let alone 3k. Correct me if I'm wrong however I haven't even heard economists talking these levels.You spend 20 hours reading on market matters, so you can further elaborate your findings,research and most importantly figures as how you come to the conclusion the market will reach these levels. I would caution anyone on this forum to others who make such big claims without evidence to support.
Other than reading about the market do you have any formal qualifications?
does anyone else see a v large head and shoulder pattern, with a bearish sloping right shoulder.
Other than reading about the market do you have any formal qualifications?
A little while ago.does anyone else see a v large head and shoulder pattern, with a bearish sloping right shoulder.
Yes, I'm much smarter and know more about the market than any economist with a Phd.LOL, Formal Qualifications now thats funny.
Yes, I'm much smarter and know more about the market than any economist with a Phd.
Of course.So you happily follow the Muppet's on the idiot box when they have a couple of letters after their names??????????????????
Thanks, I've been doing it wrong for some time then.Kennas your H&S target is taken from the centre of the neckline whereas in theory it should be taken from the right shoulder, giving a much lower target, more in line with some of the levels being discussed. I'll try and post something later.
Thanks, I've been doing it wrong for some time then.
The following is a quote from J.K.Galbraith, A chapter titled " Financial Genius is Before the Fall"
"No feature of the Great Crash was more remarkable than the the way it passed from climax to anti-climax to destroy again and again the hope that the worst had passed. Even on the 30th, when the Crash was over, the worst was still to come. It was only that it came more slowly. Day after day over the next two weeks prices fell with monotonous regularity. At the close of trade on the 29 October the Times industrials stood at 275. In the rally of the next two days they gained more than fifty points. By 13 November they were down to 224 for a further net loss of fifty points. By then stock of investment funds was largely unsalable. Their creators had, by now, ceased to be men of genius."
"The levels of late 1929 were wonderful compared with what was to follow. On 8 July 1932 the average of the closing levels of the Times industrials was 58.46. This was not much more than the amount by which they dropped on the single day of 28 October, and considerably less than a quarter of the closing values on 29 October. But by then of course, business conditions were no longer sound fundamentally or otherwise. The United States, indeed the industrial world, was in a terrible depression."
It's just a guess but I suspect that in late 1929 and in 1930 People were contemplating a similar question to the one raised in this thread.
Well if things are ever to even approach the circumstances of the Great Depression in current times then everyone is completely screwed - even all those who sell out of all their shares and property and deposit their cash in the bank! Remember during the Depression, numerous major banks, pension funds etc etc all went completely bust - if you had cash on deposit you LOST IT, every cent. Even keeping the cash under your mattress didn't help much due to inflationary pressures. There was no protection against these events back then from governments/regulators etc, (such as is in place today for exactly that reason)
Beej
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