HOG - Hawkley Oil and Gas

skivvy · 12 May 2011

ParleVouFrancois said:
Not sure how HOG will have a shortfall, besides it being symbolic. The 15 million as indicated by the costs estimation will be enough to fund all the work that has been stated thus far, with the 3 million shortfall coming from the "acquisitions" fund thingy of 4.5 million. The initial 15 million has already been sold to institutes etc, oversubscribed.

yes agree it is not a big deal for the future as the instos oversubscribed for the $15 million of shares anyway and this extra $3 million is not a biggie if it doesnt get picked up by retail investors. Just a little perplexed with the current sp relative to the raising price I guess, as most other holders would be.

traderclaude · 12 May 2011

The placement was oversubscribed by around $1.4M, so there will not be to much of a shortfall if the retail offer is not taken up.

It would seem to be a waste of time going to all the effort to print papers and mail the shareholders if it was not going to be taken up. I read somewhere the spp retail offer would cost $203,000.

It would be very odd for a company to spend money like that if they were not strategic and confident about the offer being taken up, maybe there is a pending announcement regarding the choke increase on the first well or an acquisition to boost the share price.

I did email the company about the choke increase but have not heard anything back, It was probably because I asked if the spp price would be revised down given the share price

Wombus · 12 May 2011

traderclaude said:
I did email the company about the choke increase but have not heard anything back, It was probably because I asked if the spp price would be revised down given the share price

I got the impression from reading the quarterly that the reason they haven't increased the choke was due to a lack of capacity at the 3rd part gas plant (also a small part of the reason they want to get their own gas plant up and running asap)

traderclaude · 12 May 2011

The gas plant is interesting, missed that, wonder how long it takes to build.

There seems to be 3 high sell offers between 35 and 36 and another one at 38.5 cents.

Maybe 39 cents will get people interested in taking up the offer, but it looks very manipulated the price at the moment.

Only takes one day to change things, If I didn’t have enough shares already I would be buying more.

basilio · 17 May 2011

Well it's not looking that crash hot in HOG territory at the moment. More like bacon on toast that flying pigs!

One thing I've noticed in the past couple of days has been some astute SP management in the last couple of minutes of trading. On both monday and Tuesday there were very late sales at .5 to 1c above previous trades to ensure the share finished on a better note.

Today for example the SP was 31c at 3.47.then a single small sale at 31.5 (3.49) followed by another single small sale at 32 (3.58.51). Someone is trying to keep the final days price up !

link128 · 20 May 2011

So Mr Reavley has sold a substantial portion. This can't be a good sign at this time could it?

Wombus · 20 May 2011

link128 said:
So Mr Reavley has sold a substantial portion. This can't be a good sign at this time could it?

Suggest you re-read the announcement, he dropped below the 5% threshold due to the dilution effect of the CR.

link128 · 20 May 2011

Wombus said:
Suggest you re-read the announcement, he dropped below the 5% threshold due to the dilution effect of the CR.

Ah right. I'm still learning..thanks for that. I wouldn't think the CR was due to go ahead yet though, and if anyone would even bother applying at the current SP.

Wombus · 20 May 2011

link128 said:
Ah right. I'm still learning..thanks for that. I wouldn't think the CR was due to go ahead yet though, and if anyone would even bother applying at the current SP.

There were two parts to the capital raising (well 3 in some respects) the first announcement said $18m to institutions, $15m has already gone through, the remaining $3m (which is the second part) is subject to shareholder approval (institutions are already committed to this at the 37c/share price). In addition to this is the third part, the retail share purchase plan. That's for the mums and dads, you and me kind of investors and if that gets shareholder approval the company could end up raising as much as $21m. (My guess at the moment is that they will end up raising ~$19m total)

hth

WRONG'UN · 21 May 2011

Actually, Wombus, that's not quite right either - attached is what they said in their 20 April announcement. So they already have $13.6m in the bag, and will have another $1.4m after shareholder approval - total $15m (actually $15,003,500)

I wonder if they can drop the price to 30 - 32 for the mums and dads?

By the way, I bought a few more yesterday, just in case we are bottoming.

Wombus · 21 May 2011

WRONG'UN said:
Actually, Wombus, that's not quite right either - attached is what they said in their 20 April announcement. So they already have $13.6m in the bag, and will have another $1.4m after shareholder approval - total $15m (actually $15,003,500)

I wonder if they can drop the price to 30 - 32 for the mums and dads?

By the way, I bought a few more yesterday, just in case we are bottoming.

View attachment 42988

Ahh right you are, seems I should've re-read the announcement thanks for the correction.

I think it unlikely they will lower it, but who knows. was playing around on a spreadsheet the other day, and depending on how much brokerage you pay, at current prices it likely costs less to buy $100-$200 through the SPP than on the market.

MARYANNE · 22 May 2011

HOG

WRONG'UN said:
Actually, Wombus, that's not quite right either - attached is what they said in their 20 April announcement. So they already have $13.6m in the bag, and will have another $1.4m after shareholder approval - total $15m (actually $15,003,500)

I wonder if they can drop the price to 30 - 32 for the mums and dads?

By the way, I bought a few more yesterday, just in case we are bottoming.

View attachment 42988

The way I see it, they've raised $15 million through the institutions, and will raise a further $3 million from their shareholders once they have shareholder approval

Wombus · 25 May 2011

90 day production figures and a new CEO & MD announced and all quiet on the forum front...

Thought the production figures were interesting, remembering initial flows of gas were 7.51 mmcfgd, and condensate 300bblsd. Now we are getting an average of 7.2 mmcfgd and 250 bblsd for all production on 8mm choke.

I'd certainly like to see daily or weekly production rates to see the rate of declines. Would be keen to hear the thoughts of others.

traderclaude · 26 May 2011

It is pretty close those figures, I am not to bother with it.

Hartleys has a new research note out.

I think they would reach the levels if they wanted to on an increased choke, more about planning and the gas plant to maximise operating cash flow going forward.

Watch for a pump right now or after the general meeting, could be 2 maybe.

Exciting times, I think investors are about to play ball any day.

A 40 cents for the priority is still possible though appears unlikely, but stranger things have happened.

There is a lot happening with the market ready to jump on it, watch this space!!!

WRONG'UN · 28 May 2011

I like the way it's setting up.

WRONG'UN · 31 May 2011

This won't do the natural gas price any harm:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110530/ts_afp/germanypoliticsnuclear

yma · 1 June 2011

Big volume with price up today, looks like buyers are coming back, good days coming ahead.

bbker · 1 June 2011

yma said:
Big volume with price up today, looks like buyers are coming back, good days coming ahead.

Could it just be because the general meeting is tomorrow? I don't think the timing of its anticipation is a coincidence and the mere thought of the retailers' share placement helps sentiment, even though it shouldn't be passed.

The drilling progress is still a long way off so I wouldn't hold your breath, the share price could easily retrace. But then there's always the reserves report to move things along.

isplicer · 1 June 2011

The complete resolution of the SPP could well and truly get this stock going. Now to find an entry point...

justiceotp · 1 June 2011

bbker said:
Could it just be because the general meeting is tomorrow? I don't think the timing of its anticipation is a coincidence and the mere thought of the retailers' share placement helps sentiment, even though it shouldn't be passed.

The drilling progress is still a long way off so I wouldn't hold your breath, the share price could easily retrace. But then there's always the reserves report to move things along.

I bought a percentage of the HOG shares traded today, nothing to do with meeting or drilling progress, just been watching this share for an entry point for some time, long holder of AUT, EKA, SEA and SSN all these shares have responded nicely over last few days/weeks and HOG looks to have settled and coming back with nice volume. Just felt the time was right.

HOG - Hawkley Oil and Gas

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