HLX - Helix Resources

GRIZ · 3 June 2008

Hi all, Long no time no talk, Y.T Isn't It 69.8 mt @ 55% cut of..

I must be the the unluckiest person in the world, I got sick of waiting and sold 165,000 shares yesterday - after talking to greg on Friday afternoon about the Bot trading (first time I'd spoken to him, didn't seem to have any idea what was happening in his own company). It looked to me like someone big with a sophisticated broker was trying to reduce there position, 2 weeks of buying followed by 4 weeks of selling. Who knows? Did notice there was only 1 pre-open bot sell, compared to 1 every 7-11 minutes - did the bot know not to sell??

P.S How are you kennes, been almost a year since last posted, whats happened to KMN ?? (I started the thread after hearing the M.D speak at a Technical analysts association meeting in Brisbane ages ago).

YOUNG_TRADER · 3 June 2008

Well the mkt sure is a funny beast lately

EPS and MXR ann huge targets of mag and go nuts, HLX ann's its first Haematite JORC in the Pilbara and nobody cares which has me

Its currently capped at $36.4m with $9m in cash and assets = an EV of $27.5m

Which means its net interest of 18.5Mts of Haematite Iron Ore is valued at $1.50/t

Go Nuke · 3 June 2008

Thanks for your evaluation YT. That sort of stuff is beyond me to work out

Your right though, amazingly I noticed the ann come out and while reading it, the sp went through the roof! (Commsec shows 20 trades going through in 3 seconds..lol. Sif I had a chance to get in sub 30c)

Typicaly i gained some more HLX at around 30c but have arrived home to see Im sitting on a loss with that parcel

Seen as I have very little idea of what the announcement means in terms of $$, I'm thankful for some reasurrance on the numbers front from yourself YT.
I noticed someone smashed that order of 100,000 HLXO options set at 10c in no time. Bet he's unimpressed now. They are back at .066 now.

Now that Yalleen is out of the way...what IS happening with MEP and that looooong forgotten JV with Toro in regards to Uranium?

ps...HLX was a tight ship on this ann....for a change

Jimminy · 3 June 2008

I wouldn't assess the announcement by this afternoon's trading.

It's a good announcement, and time will sort out what the market thinks what it should be valued at. Not one afternoon of funny buggers.

We've all be saying for a while what the co. is worth and now I believe that may be realised.

ta2693 · 3 June 2008

I like it. Thanks YT. I think 30% of 69.8mt=20mt the market cap at 28.5c is 43m
minus 9m cash. it is around $1.7/ton

Synergy · 3 June 2008

I read the ann and thought it must have been largely factored into the SP when at 3:30 in pre open the buy depth wasn't showing much excitment. Obviously things changed soon after and it was +45%.

Would have been an easy 40%, probably could have got in at 25c

ta2693 · 3 June 2008

Synergy said:
I read the ann and thought it must have been largely factored into the SP when at 3:30 in pre open the buy depth wasn't showing much excitment. Obviously things changed soon after and it was +45%.

Would have been an easy 40%, probably could have got in at 25c

using $3.30/ton the price should be 50c. I think the market will realize that soon. Thanks for YT watching HLX.

Jimminy · 3 June 2008

GRIZ said:
Y.T Isn't It 69.8 mt @ 55% cut of..

No, the cutoff for 112mT is 50%, but the average grade is still 55.5% across both Kumina and Robe Exit.

I think that may have confused some - trust me, we have 112mT at 55.57!

cheers.

GRIZ · 3 June 2008

Hi Jimminy,

I can see Table A (50% Fe Cut off) has 55.57% Fe and
Table B (55% Fe Cut off) has 56.78% Fe.

If HLX have 112mT @ 55.57, why does Table B say 69.8mT.
Why have Table B at all. Aren't they looking for DSO 55% + ?? How I'm really confused !

not to mention Pi$$ed at my self for selling yesterday, Wanted the cash to buy some more BRM, could of waited until Thursday I find out Today anyway.

Any thoughts about the bot not buying this morning, first day in 7 weeks ?? Started up again after news I notice..

Jimminy · 3 June 2008

GRIZ said:
Hi Jimminy,

I can see Table A (50% Fe Cut off) has 55.57% Fe and
Table B (55% Fe Cut off) has 56.78% Fe.

Why have Table B at all. I'm really confused !

..

Simple, you need to look at the individual results for KC & Robe.

Kumina has quite good results. Changing the cutoff from 55 to 50% doesn't change the tonnage all that much.

Robe on the other hand does. The 55% cutoff only yields 18.1mT, whereas the 50% cutoff yields 43.5mT. Quite a difference.

But the cutoff of 50% for Robe still achieves an average grade of 54.65, so there was obviously alot of results that just fell shy of the 55% cutoff, hence they used two tables.

Selling in the month the JORC is due is a big big risk imo.....:nono: particularly when Dunbar & Mick Wilson had already bought in this year as a signal of good results.

ta2693 · 3 June 2008

when Hlx share price come to 34c
the market cap is 51m Cash=9m
net=42m
the Jorc DSO is 33.6m(30%*112mt)

Not to mention all other projects.
the DSO is valued at< $1.25/ton

That is dirty cheap. Can anyone find any company cheaper in terms of JORC DSO?

As far as I know, there is none.

Atma · 3 June 2008

ta2693 said:
when Hlx share price come to 34c
the market cap is 51m Cash=9m
net=42m
the Jorc DSO is 33.6m(30%*112mt)

Not to mention all other projects.
the DSO is valued at< $1.25/ton

That is dirty cheap. Can anyone find any company cheaper in terms of JORC DSO?

As far as I know, there is none.

i have read this announcement in detail. was greater than expected hence the rerating. But their Robe Exit prospect is wide spaced drilling and in "inferred" category. <55% is not DSO for this prospect. It will have to be sorted with the Kumina creek. Kumina creek deposit is very good. but 30% ownership hmm. Also production. AQA state these deposits are not part of their 1st stage of production(only Red hill and cullen). 2nd stage is not forecast until 2014-2015 at least. AQA will take 2 yrs to build stage 1 itself, and will take a while for these operations to reach steady state, before considering any expansions(2014). By that time iron ore prices could have fallen.

ta2693 · 3 June 2008

Atma said:
i have read this announcement in detail. was greater than expected hence the rerating. But their Robe Exit prospect is wide spaced drilling and in "inferred" category. <55% is not DSO for this prospect. It will have to be sorted with the Kumina creek. Kumina creek deposit is very good. but 30% ownership hmm. Also production. AQA state these deposits are not part of their 1st stage of production(only Red hill and cullen). 2nd stage is not forecast until 2014-2015 at least. AQA will take 2 yrs to build stage 1 itself, and will take a while for these operations to reach steady state, before considering any expansions(2014). By that time iron ore prices could have fallen.

If it could sell out immediately, it would be $40+/ton.
We are talking about the price of deposit.
Even something in Africa can be priced at $4/ton. why only give $1.33/ton to HLX.

Atma · 4 June 2008

agree with the analysis by ta. this is certainly priced cheaper than peers. the reasons it is priced cheaper would be it is not a producer "near term" i guess. Also a slight discount as it is not fully owning/controlling the deposits destiny, and a slight discount to the "Robe exit" inferred nature of resource and lack of DSO(<55% and relatively high Si+Al)

Robe exit needs more drilling, and a more confidence rating. Also it will need to be blended with Kumina.

I am interested in what they prove up from "Robe WEST" and other targets near robe exit.

jtb · 5 June 2008

Atma said:
agree with the analysis by ta. this is certainly priced cheaper than peers. the reasons it is priced cheaper would be it is not a producer "near term" i guess. Also a slight discount as it is not fully owning/controlling the deposits destiny, and a slight discount to the "Robe exit" inferred nature of resource and lack of DSO(<55% and relatively high Si+Al)

Robe exit needs more drilling, and a more confidence rating. Also it will need to be blended with Kumina.

I am interested in what they prove up from "Robe WEST" and other targets near robe exit.

Evening Helixers,

Hooray- felt like the initial JORC was never going to arrive hey?

Interesting to see the tiny parcels are persisting after the ann', whats going on there

Atma- I'd have to disagree with the comment re: discounting due to not being the operator/ majority holder- have a look at RHI they're solely priced on being the junior partner and on only 20% share.
CUL's resource is smaller and of lower quality again.

As to Robe West, it whets the appetite doesn't it- big footprint.
Personally I'm still intrigued by Bonham- as I've posted earlier the enriched hardcap represents 150 MT (45-52% Fe) for the stated 10m thickness and it overlies the Marra Mamba member.
Personally I've never drilled MM thinner than 50m but if you research the geology of the Tom Price - Pannawonica trend you will see it has been proven between >200m with a minium of 15m.

Helix quote thickening of the Marra Mamba on their website!

MM is also commonly very low on Al. Si etc and preferred for blending for that reason (enriched MM commonly up to 62%). It also has properties that assist in the smelting process.
If we have enriched MM under the iron cap at Bonham @ the minium 15m that presents a target of 75MT for every 5m of depth or 350MT.

As YT has stated we should already being sitting @ 50-70c purely on the initial JORC @ KC/RE + cash.

Nothing at all incorporated for gold in hand or yet to come

When we will get the API ann' stating Chinese interest

Looking for the weekly to close above 30c and then I'll be looking for 42ish to begin with (in spite of mister 200 shares manipulating up/down and sideways)

Go HLX

Jimminy · 6 June 2008

Was wondering what happened to you JTB....

Thanks for the interesting insight into the possibilities with Bonham...

A stock to be patient with and be potentially well rewarded.

Most regulars on here should not have a buy price exceeding 25c I would hope given that they have had plenty of opportunity to buy the dips.

Go Nuke · 19 June 2008

Nice presentation today!

Finaly a few answers on Glenb and Tunkilla.

There's even a few prospects in there I'd never even heard of! lol.

Best layout and presentation so far I reckon. I liked the opening bit about interest from a number of stockbroking firms

Though did they stuff up the option price?? I thought the excise price was 20c?

I like the braod range of metals that HLX has their finger in. Gives me a greater sence of security

Does anyone know when the "Stage 2" of the API plan is due to start? Seen as that involved HLX. First of second Q of 09 I suppose?

Oh and the graph on Value per ton looks great doesn't it! Not that i understand that stuff too much.

Go Nuke · 19 June 2008

Geez!!

What is it with those tiny trades going through, manipulating the share price!!

From 12%+ UP
to
2.13% DOWN!

YOUNG_TRADER · 19 June 2008

YOUNG_TRADER said:
Well the mkt sure is a funny beast lately

EPS and MXR ann huge targets of mag and go nuts, HLX ann's its first Haematite JORC in the Pilbara and nobody cares which has me

Its currently capped at $36.4m with $9m in cash and assets = an EV of $27.5m

Which means its net interest of 18.5Mts of Haematite Iron Ore is valued at $1.50/t

Interesting presentation,

Page 9 was good, as was the table showing the EV/t valuations and as I thought HLX is the cheapest, but now Im begining to think its for a reason, perhaps because of the fact that they are part of Stage 2 Production and not stage 1??

Still on a comparative EV to CUL and RHI this seems cheap,

Nuke volumes look thin to me boh buying and selling so who knows, also my broker always says these are "BOT's"

jtb · 23 June 2008

Evening Helixers,

Interesting that our price manipulating friend seems to have disappeared since HLX's announcement concerning a presentation to brokers
Hope they got as many as they wanted

I see via the 'Iron Ore' thread that Patterson's now have us on the radar and as YT mentioned, the value graph looks like we should have a fair degree of upside.

Considering the recent media chatter regarding rail access regimes in the region, the HLX statement Re: 'Possible 1st Stage participant or 3rd party infrastructure' is also very promising.
Existing rail line directly through the lease seems to bring some other stocks substantial value

I'm a patient man...........................

HLX - Helix Resources

GRIZ

YOUNG_TRADER

Go Nuke

Jimminy

ta2693

Synergy

ta2693

Jimminy

GRIZ

Jimminy

ta2693

Atma

ta2693

Atma

jtb

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Go Nuke

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