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HLI - Helia Group

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IMO. As long as Interest Rates are low, the capital return and exceptional dividend payments makes GMA an interesting prospect. However it appears Aussies are at all time highs with personal debt.
Australia is singled out by the IMF in its latest Fiscal Monitor report as one of a handful of developed countries where debt continues to rise.
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Employment incomes with a to-be significantly reduced resource market (coal phased out) and significantly reduced manufacturing industry (see China/Asia) will place mortgage payments under pressure. Under pressure due to lower non resource/manufacturing full time employment incomes. It doesn't come naturally to look too far ahead. Week to week, month to month is about as far as most extend. A que sera sera future.
 
craft said:
Since this date GMA has paid shareholders 79.8cents in capital returns and dividends and 19.6cents in franking credits.

That's a 40.7% return on $2.44

24th was the 12 month anniversary. It closed at $2.71 on the 23rd or $2.68 on the 26th
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That is an amazing return well above anything else I've seen!
WOW.
 

Everyone is a macro forecaster these days.

While equity investors don't want to be completely tin-eared when it comes to macro forecasts, they should demand compelling evidence before they let macro forecasters have the final say on their equity investments.

As Buffett noted, there is always a large section in the local graveyard reserved for macro forecasters.
 

As luck would have it, I came across this quote by Charlie Munger today which sums up perfectly the little to be gained from investing based on macro calls:

"Warren and I have not made our way in life by making successful macroeconomic predictions and betting on our conclusions... Our system is to swim as competently as we can and sometimes the tide will be with us and sometimes it will be against us. But by and large we don't much bother with trying to predict the tides because we plan to play the game for a long time... It's kind of a snare and delusion to outguess macroeconomic cycles... Very few people do it successfully and some of them do it by accident. When the game is that tough, why not adopt the other system of swimming as competently as you can and figuring that over a long life you'll have your share of good tides and bad tides".
 
The former parent and still largest shareholder of GMA, Genworth Financial Inc (GNW), offers an attractive merger arb opportunity at present if anyone is interested.

An offer of USD$5.43 has been made for the outstanding shares of GNW. The spread based on the most recent closing price of GNW is around 25%. The deal is expected to close mid next year but requires state regulatory approval which appears to account for the wide spread.
 

All the Chinese SoE based deals have been blowing up left right and centre on account of the govt trying to stop outflows. Check out the Syngenta/ChemChina - US$43B deal that is going nowhere fast.
 
skyQuake said:
All the Chinese SoE based deals have been blowing up left right and centre on account of the govt trying to stop outflows. Check out the Syngenta/ChemChina - US$43B deal that is going nowhere fast.
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The offer for GNW has come from China Oceanwide Holdings. China Oceanwide Holdings is not a state-owned enterprise and it has a solid history of completing acquisitions in the U.S.
 
Rainman said:
The offer for GNW has come from China Oceanwide Holdings. China Oceanwide Holdings is not a state-owned enterprise and it has a solid history of completing acquisitions in the U.S.
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They still require Chinese govt approvals, though the discount seems to be attributed to US approvals:
Anbang Insurance Group’s takeover of HRG Group’s Fidelity and Guaranty Life - deal was announced about a year ago and still no approvals
 
skyQuake said:
They still require Chinese govt approvals, though the discount seems to be attributed to US approvals:
Anbang Insurance Group’s takeover of HRG Group’s Fidelity and Guaranty Life - deal was announced about a year ago and still no approvals
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What approval from the Chinese government does Oceanwide require in order to purchase GNW? Please provide a link to your supporting source.

The issue holding up Anbang's offer to take over FGL is due to the New York regulators requiring further information about Anbang's shareholder structure. Angbang decided to pull its application: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/01/reut...g-pulls-fidelity-acquisition-application.html. It is unclear whether it will resubmit it.

But Anbang's decision to pull its application was not due to any issue with the Chinese government withholding (or withholding conditionally) approval for the deal.
 
GMA made a 52 week high today. Some good strength the past couple of months, perhaps a strong profit result in the coming weeks. Or perhaps buy the rumour, sell the fact.
 
Buyers keep seem to be coming out in droves around the 2.80 region for GMA here
 
Miner said:
Re: GMA - Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia IPO


The issue got fully subscribed with issue price about $2.65. The promoters hold large amount of stock holding and going to be traded from 25 May 2014. Interesting time of listing .
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3 and a half years later and the SP has gone next to nowhere, biggish swings in between of course but a slight disappointment for long term holders i would think, dividends have been good, SP just keeps bouncing off the 2.70/5 level, lower highs though, not a good sign.

A turning point approaches one would think, a break up or break down.
~
 
Good chart SC. Glad to see you have been tracking GMA . I am waiting for a break to re-enter after taken off with profit on GMA some times back.
 
Ouch, watch out below $2.23.

Where is Rainman with his wonder FA analysis of the bright and outstanding company.

Looks to me property will go the same direction
 


The current consolidation happening at $2.60 which is just below the higher resistance of $2.66 caught my eye. Perhaps there is also the possibility for a Cup & Handle pattern to form as price action advances (oh, and yes, I am aware of the serious leak near the left hand lip of the cup).
 
GMA pushing through to fresh highs today following the release of their 3Q19 earnings:



It looks like GMA is reaping the benefits of improving property market conditions around the country with a nearly 30% jump in its third-quarter underlying net profit.

It's been an outstanding 2019 for GMA and with the current low interest rate environment and the property market tipped to improve even further, there could be more gains to come for GMA.

Certainly one worth watching for property market bulls.

 
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