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They started shifting away from the higher LVR which will help if we have a 'soft' landing. Time to talk to some actuaries and see if any hedge funds have been talking to them too!
Combined ratio ~50%...Guess where that's going in a downturn. The general insurers have CORs in the low 90% to over 100%. This is basically a single event insurer My opinion is that residential property tanks it's going to be Australia wide. As long as everything is fine in residential property it will toss off cash. If mortgage foreclosures rise well then you better hope the actuaries knew what they were doing.
Combined ratio ~50%...Guess where that's going in a downturn. The general insurers have CORs in the low 90% to over 100%. This is basically a single event insurer: My opinion is that residential property tanks it's going to be Australia wide. As long as everything is fine in residential property it will toss off cash. If mortgage foreclosures rise well then you better hope the actuaries knew what they were doing.
It was a simple bet, no more, no less, not talking down, a bit of fun, to keep things interesting on the forum. It I was I who questioned Rainman thoughts on this stock as I felt, no T/A but F/A macro that sooner or later the property bubble in Australia would pop, well the chart told me that the market felt that way to, but mainly due to the fact we are the most overly privately indebted nation in the world with a crap load of land to build on and a pile of debt to go with it to. Thank-you Glen for the ultra low I/R's, how is that inflation going?. Mind you, I only trade on T/A, keeps me impartial.Regardless, your support for ASF has nothing to do with the fact that you talk down others who hold different ways of making money in the market.
You try to be impartial, but still are insulting. “Amateur”. I don’t know about you, but $360K for the average Joe is a lot of money and have you shown in a public forum this type of return. Shucks, you would have laid down $3B and turned it into a trillion. Common, this is getting a little out of hand.What is a lot of money? Turing $30k into $360k over 7 years? I guess some might consider that mildly impressive for an amateur.
... Agree Rainman is at times just as bad.
They started shifting away from the higher LVR which will help if we have a 'soft' landing. Time to talk to some actuaries and see if any hedge funds have been talking to them too!
Show me one post of mine where I have ever rubbished a stock idea put forward by anyone on this forum because I consider the "fundamental picture" looks bad?
In the interim, I want to watch you squirm.
Now stop being a pussy and make the bet.
You try to be impartial, but still are insulting. “Amateur”.
I said you have at times guilty of "tedious snide remarks and childish taunting". Here are 2 examples...
You can see the prices here for adjusted vs unadjusted for GMA.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=GMA.AX
Clearly coincidental that you ran out of time at the precise moment that an error was pointed out.
Thank you for your financial support for the ASF. But when you lose a wager on the forum and pay up to Joe... that's you losing a wager.
Regardless, your support for ASF has nothing to do with the fact that you talk down others who hold different ways of making money in the market.
You may want to support ASF by making it a more friendly and constructive environment.
A simplest illustration of how TA and FA work. The shares were in a downtrend. The downtrend was created by people selling the stock who knows the share better than those who were buying. Those who were buying got their FA wrong. Those who were selling got their FA right. So can people please stop throwing out examples of TLS or Enron as how FA doesn't work and TA is superior. These examples at best only prove that right TA is superior to wrong FA.
You don't have to trade professionally to make some decent coin.Great to see.. although not sure what I am supposed to imply from this.
What is a lot of money? Turing $30k into $360k over 7 years? I guess some might consider that mildly impressive for an amateur. But I think quite a few people will scoff at this comment - Minwa only made about 1/3 of that in a single month (and he uses TA too)... I know TA works in the right hands at the right times so you don't need to convince me of such.
Agree Rainman is at times just as bad. Everything you say about him applies equally to yourself. And any change in behaviour you wish to see from him... I wish to see from you.
I said you have at times guilty of "tedious snide remarks and childish taunting". Here are 2 examples.
Amateur = non-professional. Tech/a doesn't trade for a living. Doesn't want to, doesn't need to. He's an amateur trader by definition.
If a professional trader made $330k over 7 years he would have averaged a bit under $50k a year. That is not good at a professional level. But it is mildly impressive for an amateur.
The point is... making some or lots of money (by whoever's standard) in the market using one method doesn't mean another method is worthless.
Read through this thread I haven't talked down anyone--I've presented my view in the face of a vehement believer in one form of analysis. my point is that Fundamental analysis is just as easily mildly accurate OR plain wrong as any other!
You don't have to trade professionally to make some decent coin.
99% of members on ASF don't/cant/or don't want to but wouldn't mind making some "Decent Coin"
Yes and like all in business he would have had his bad months. I doubt its the norm---you don't post up the jubilation of something normal!
Systematic trading (eventually) takes a few hrs a week.
Better than your other business I reckon!.
What is a lot of money? Turing $30k into $360k over 7 years?
I have seen this claimed about the techtrader thread multiple times by tech, but I have never been able to verify.
From my understanding, it was $30k plus $70k margin loan, so the return from trades is actually more like 260% return over 7 years (~15% per annum, after margin costs I assume, otherwise not much better than market return) than the 1200% return that "turning $30k into $360k" seems to imply.
Still an impressive return of course, but should be considered in light of the overall market regime for those 7 years as well.
Will reply to this query on this thread.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/newreply.php?p=870168&noquote=1
some extract from Bell Potter Research
Genworth Australia is a high-risk play on the Australian housing market,
which is unlikely to crash.
Two reports attached - apology if they were uploaded in the past.
Given that I don't have a clue about Financial Analysis (and only slightly more about Technical Analysis) can anyone give me an idea (or two) what the following financial information can tell us about the health of the company - I assume present health cannot be given as the information is only up to 2015? After all I suppose as an outsider, one can only work out the figures twice a year when the company releases the 1st & 2nd half results to the market
Btw, it would be nice if someone who has Stockdoctor in their armoury, could give us their (Lincoln Indicators) opinion of the stock presently
Regards
PB
Btw, it would be nice if someone who has Stockdoctor in their armoury, could give us their (Lincoln Indicators) opinion of the stock presently
Regards
PB
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