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HDR - Hardman Resources

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Lucstar

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Hi guys, i've been browsing around for some stocks lately, not to buy, but just to further familiarise myself with the market. I've dug out two stocks that seem to be filled with potential. I'm probably wrong and thats why i here asking for your opinions. Well the first is TZL (TZ Limited). A combination of the prospects for the US economy in particular, TZ's contractual agreement with Textron and the cost-saving potential of TZ's technology. Currently selling for 72cents. It might just be a good buy. Next is HDR (Hardman Resources). I've seen this stock be mentioned quite often. What do you guys think about these two stocks?
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Hi there,

So, someone with similar stocks in mind. Well for Hardman, this is a very volatile time to buy in. For a fundamental analyst HDR is trading at a very high speculative level. Also, there is news expected from recent operations next month (September). Get ready for a rocky ride- unless it's all positive.
I'm happy to keep going for a while but I would prefer another stock for more upside. There are call warrants HDRWMI which may allow you to spend less but with higher volatility.

As for TZL, check out the big dive on Monday! Must be the uncertain nature of the agreement and things not being finalised. I looked (and looked) at the stock when it was below 50c but didn't buy in! got distracted with other stuff and forgot how near the agreement was. But if it goes any lower I reckon it'll be a bargain as the market may have just been surprised by the delay.

PLEASE NOTE THIS IS JUST MY PERSONAL OPINION, NOT A RECOMMENDATION SO BE CAREFUL! I'M PRETTY MUCH A BEGINNER IN STOCKS!

RichKid
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Looks like Hardman has been rewarded for getting drilling underway, price is approaching $2 again- still a subdued share price considering that it was just below $2.50 no so long ago. It'll be a rocky ride unless ALL the news is positive (which is unlikely).
I got into HDRWMI (call warrants) to get more leverage so I hope things work out well or it'll be a tough ride!!

Anyone else watching HDR closely?

RichKid
 
Re: TZL and HDR

I'm holding HDR here. Speculating on some good news from Mauritania. I think the stock is not that risky to hold for anything other than daytrading. It's well below its high and I would regard it as good value under $2. Got some at 1.91 and now I'm waiting for the action...

Have a nice weekend

Stefan
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Hi Stefan
I must agree with you about HDR being reliable (especially in light of what I mentioned earlier) but in the short term things may get a bit rocky, but as you suggest, if we look to the horizon rather than tomorrows intra-day prices it'll be a good bet.
I just saw an article in the Asian Wall Street Journal (9Sept): Don Voelte, Woodside's chief executive said the first exploration well, in the Dorade prospect, may be a dry hole. The article comments that that may be an attempt to hose down over enthusiasm about the drilling. Voelte suggests that Dorade is an all or nothing prospect (ie either zilch or "it opens up a whole new area"). Volatile times ahead- those who expect perfect results may panic, the main thing to watch out for is volume. Eitherway I'm holding on for the next few weeks at least!


RichKid
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Well Hardman has finally pulled out of that short term channell it fell into but it has yet to make the support line it was staying above before the political problem surfaced.

From memory, $2.12 is about where it needs to close above to get back into that uptrend. I'd hate to think what a dry well at Dorado-1 would do to the price but there are always other wells that will come up trumps, eventually. Hopefully the current shareprice fully reflects the sovereign risk that investors were spooked by- but it's hard to tell.

RichKid
 
Re: TZL and HDR

RichKid said:
Hardman- Hopefully the current shareprice fully reflects the sovereign risk that investors were spooked by- but it's hard to tell.

RichKid
Click to expand...

Just saw an article in today's Financial Review (17Sep):
'Risk premium proves easy to brush off'
about how this type of risk is built into share prices, not detailed but worth a quick look.
RichKid
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Let's see if I can post a HDR chart...

RichKid
 

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Re: TZL and HDR

Yippeee!! It works, here's a more detailed one showing the recovery. I couldn't draw any trend lines, but from what I've measured the price re-established its support line once it closed above $2.12. It has some way to go before joining the upper channel (where it was before the big fall) though.

Has everyone read the Ted Ellyard briefing, announced this week? Looks like another week or so before some detailed news starts to flow. Anyone know why the stock jumped to $2.30 before settling at $2.19 on Friday? Must be becasue the trend has recovered (so far) and things are hotting up.

RichKid
 

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Re: TZL and HDR

As a holder of HDR, I'm of course pleased to see it recovering slowly. I guess Friday's sell off was just in line with the profit taking activity that happened all over the market. Oil prices are still near record and this can only mean good news for HDR. Together with the potential of their Mauritania drilling program, I'd say it should climb back to 2.30 this week where it has a bit of a resistance to break. Real news from Mauritania won't be out before early October so there's a bit of a build up period.

I consider selling anywhere above 2.30 if the stock manages to go there this week. I would like to cash in on a nice run with this one and because it's all time high was 2.48 I would expect some up and downs happening around that level. I can't figure out how much upside potential a drilling success would create for HDR. If anybody did some thinking about this, I'd welcome your comments.

Have a nice weekend

Stefan
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Hi Stefan,

Glad to hear from a fellow Hardman follower. I'm with it for the longterm but I will take part profits from time to time. I use HDRWMI warrants to get leverage (they expire in December). As far potential upside and early exists, IMO about $2.40 is the minimum for an early exit on existing news but any good discoveries may make that look silly. ($2.50 to me is a strong psychological level but I haven't done any charting to test the patterns). Be ready for big falls on bad news but don't panic.

As for valuing potential discoveries, please see a recent article in AirReview (one of my favourite journals, I've mentioned it a few times on this site already) www.aireview.com about broker valuations for Woodside and Hardman (just put Hardman in as a search term and you will find lots of good articles). Each of the prospects is given a valuation in terms of share price rerating. BUT, this stock is likely to outstrip any conservative estimates IMO.

Please note that I'm a beginner in stocks and although I can't make recommendations I do like Hardman.

I'll write more later, hope this help.

All the best,
RichKid
 
Re: TZL and HDR

RichKid,

Thanks for the link. The reports are very upbeat about HDR and should they really find something in Mauritania (expectations seems to be very high), then a jump of about 35 cents would seem reasonable for HDR. Reflecting that to a boilant oil market, I'd say it could be well worth ignoring any temptations to sell this week. So I'll reconsider my sell target. The upbeating forcast for 2006 seems to underline the potential in HDR.

All the more reasons to keep a close eye on it.

Thanks again and have a nice weekend

Stefan
 
Re: TZL and HDR

And so OIL is continuing its way up, now just short of $50.

Interesting article:
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6345889

After thinking about HDR I would speculate that a positive result of the drilling will make this stock go MUCH higher than just a couple of cents. While speculators will undoubtfully push the price higher in advance, I'd say there is quite a lot of potential in HDR. (And ROC for that matter, but ROC seems to have a much smaller share in this program.)

Unfortunatelly high OIL prices will send the rest of the market down for the next couple of days, maybe having a dramatic impact on the world's economies, especially the fragile US. This could easily lead into the biggest depression the Americans have seen for a while. Anyway, this isn't the place to discuss this.

It's not looking good. It really isn't.

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Hi Stefan,
Yep it's having an effect alright. But it'll probably spike like this from time to time. I've been following the long term pricing models for oil and people were stubbornly modelling in prices below 25, now they've finally come around to about 30-35.

Those articles you mentioned were quite interesting- thanks. Just checked out HDR today, looks like alot of people are hoping to exit at $2.30. There's a fair bit of support at $2.20 in the short term. Just read some of the bios on the HDR execs- some real smart people alright (also very rich) (see the report announced yesterday).

It'll be an interesting couple of weeks with results coming in...
 
Re: TZL and HDR

RichKid said:
It'll be an interesting couple of weeks with results coming in...
Click to expand...
Its been an interesting day, with HDR dropping to 2.14 in a few hours


Markor
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Its been an interesting day, with HDR dropping to 2.14 in a few hours
Click to expand...
A rather quick dump to 2.10 and then all the way back up to 2.18. Somebody must have sold out at market. Wondering why... Will be interesting to see where it closes. Anyway, I'll just keep holding until the drilling is over.

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Maybe some nervous nellies decided to take profits and started a small run down. The buying was quick after that and it's back in that uptrend channel again, good to see the support. I suppose traders would have triggered stop losses and the investors would either be just waiting or topping up on weakness. Or maybe new hands are entering as I've noticed a few brokers covering the stock again, now that the drilling has started.

Eitherway it doesn't matter as this programme has a long way to go yet, I'm just waiting to see how much it spikes when they find oil.
 
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