Hamfisted chart reading TA exercise

Uncle Festivus · 16 August 2008

tech/a said:
SBM is a dog.

You can tell that from the chart or do you have an emotional bias? How did you come to that conclusion? I thought TA took the emotion out of it?

Technically doesn't look any different from any other stock lately, plumbing lows?

Isn't the 'trick' to 'look' at things differently to what the lemming pack sentiment is to find 'value' from 'oversold' conditions?

The fundamental arithmatic says it's oversold, but we still have to wait for the technical picture to 'trend' & sentiment to change before anyone makes any money out of it.

kennas said:
Going the way on BDG.

BDG story still being written/not finished yet?

Sean K · 16 August 2008

Uncle Festivus said:
You can tell that from the chart or do you have an emotional bias? How did you come to that conclusion? I thought TA took the emotion out of it?

Technically doesn't look any different from any other stock lately, plumbing lows?

Isn't the 'trick' to 'look' at things differently to what the lemming pack sentiment is to find 'value' from 'oversold' conditions?

The fundamental arithmatic says it's oversold, but we still have to wait for the technical picture to 'trend' & sentiment to change before anyone makes any money out of it.

BDG story still being written/not finished yet?

Yes, you are right on a few levels UF, but I have my doubts due to costs.

My comment wasn't very well considered.

However, I think SBM has come off just a little more than some other gold developers. I haven't done the overall sums, but dropping 4/5 ths is ordinary.

Let's hope it turns around!

tech/a · 16 August 2008

Uncle Festivus said:
You can tell that from the chart or do you have an emotional bias? How did you come to that conclusion? I thought TA took the emotion out of it?

Technically doesn't look any different from any other stock lately, plumbing lows?

Isn't the 'trick' to 'look' at things differently to what the lemming pack sentiment is to find 'value' from 'oversold' conditions?

The fundamental arithmatic says it's oversold, but we still have to wait for the technical picture to 'trend' & sentiment to change before anyone makes any money out of it.

BDG story still being written/not finished yet?

Its dropped 75% off its highs.
in 2003 it was .4c so it only has another 75% to drop to be at its all
time lows.
Bottom pickers look at what it was!
Only they have tunnel vision ---only UP!.

Technically this isnt showing ANY reason to buy at THIS point.
This may change,but right now your punting!

Hey if you like it buy it!

Uncle Festivus · 16 August 2008

tech/a said:
Its dropped 75% off its highs.
in 2003 it was .4c so it only has another 75% to drop to be at its all
time lows.
Bottom pickers look at what it was!
Only they have tunnel vision ---only UP!.

Technically this isnt showing ANY reason to buy at THIS point.
This may change,but right now your punting!

Hey if you like it buy it!

So from a technical perspective if a stock has fallen 75% you class it as a 'dog'?

As was the intention of the original post, try this excercise in 'blind' analysis, see attached chart - XXX has fallen nearly 50% - would you buy it now? What is your technical viewpoint? No prices so as to remove the sector sentiment bias?

tech/a · 16 August 2008

Uncle Festivus said:
So from a technical perspective if a stock has fallen 75% you class it as a 'dog'?

As was the intention of the original post, try this excercise in 'blind' analysis, see attached chart - XXX has fallen nearly 50% - would you buy it now? What is your technical viewpoint? No prices so as to remove the sector sentiment bias?

Geezz pretty Snakey---must hold SBM Uncle!

The chart you've posted at the date posted looks another doggy.
But this could change.
Charts need to be evaluated from a history and a current perspective.
If the technical information alters on a chart then the classification from dog to darling may well be effected.
I see its a July chart.Unfold the information on a daily basis and we may see more evidence which supports or refutes my CURRENT view.

SBM on today's chart is a dog and looking at its history has been a dog for sometime.
It gives no indication that its status as a dog is going to change.
But you may like to collect dogs.
Even feed dogs.
They may even have a pedigree---even dogs with pedigrees wont conform to our wants.

My view and yours differ----whats the problem with that?

IFocus · 16 August 2008

Don't want to rub it in guys but what are you seeing in these two, here is the weekly charts

Uncle Festivus · 17 August 2008

tech/a said:
Geezz pretty Snakey---must hold SBM Uncle!

The chart you've posted at the date posted looks another doggy.
But this could change.
Charts need to be evaluated from a history and a current perspective.
If the technical information alters on a chart then the classification from dog to darling may well be effected.
I see its a July chart.Unfold the information on a daily basis and we may see more evidence which supports or refutes my CURRENT view.

SBM on today's chart is a dog and looking at its history has been a dog for sometime.
It gives no indication that its status as a dog is going to change.
But you may like to collect dogs.
Even feed dogs.
They may even have a pedigree---even dogs with pedigrees wont conform to our wants.

My view and yours differ----whats the problem with that?

I think you are missing the point of the thread, which was to do some TA on a chart without being influenced by the name of the company.

As for this thread I havn't given a view on SBM so far, nor have I said I would buy it - my view might actually be the same as yours. You have assumed that my probing is in defence of the company.

I am more interested on whether your opinion was biased by knowing who the company was, which makes it interesting with the second candidate for analysis because you have provisionaly given it dog status as well.

Here is the daily - what is the analysis?

tech/a · 17 August 2008

Analysis is the same as above.

The daily seems to be showing some interest as there "seems" to be a higher low forming,Clear possibly exhaustive volume on the 2 most recient low points.
(My eyes cant see the last few weeks of bars clearly).
This is in a corrective phase and is likely to range---in my view.

90% of the time I have no idea what the code even stands for let alone what they do.

CanOz · 17 August 2008

My says NAB is in a downtrend that looks unstoppable at this stage.

The only good news is that volume is starting to look like it might be drying up a bit. This could be a seasonal drop in volume though.

To me there could be a weak case for a bullish wedge forming too, but it really looks like a sick stock at this stage. Maybe after September 1st when we get some volume back into the ASX we will see if it consolidates.

Oh, on the weekly you can see a support area at 23.00 ish.

Cheers,

CanOz

IFocus · 17 August 2008

Uncle Festivus said:
The fundamental arithmatic says it's oversold, but we still have to wait for the technical picture to 'trend' & sentiment to change before anyone makes any money out of it.

BDG story still being written/not finished yet?

(kennas Let's hope it turns around!

UF just picked up on these comments and wondered

I am more interested on whether your opinion was biased by knowing who the company was, which makes it interesting with the second candidate for analysis because you have provisionaly given it dog status as well.

I do follow the sectors and for that the company name is important long rising / short for falling sectors, when holding positions in the US I rarely have any idea about the company other than the sector its in.

As for the dog status thing the only thing I see in the charts is that the market has smashed both stock prices and its pricing in risk.

IFocus · 17 August 2008

Paladin since I stuck my nose in here guess I better contribute some thing

SBM looking at the weekly chart shows rising volume may repeat may signal buyers moving in but this is still to be confirmed, this could lead for a move up to test 38 cents area but the daily chart shows the down trend currently still intact with a couple of buying spikes. The relatively average daily price range at these buying points show sellers still in control.

I don't see a trading opportunity other than looking at the down side and for that to happen price needs to consolidate to form some definitive boundary's to work with.

Hope this helps

IFocus · 17 August 2008

Uncle Festivus said:
Here is the daily - what is the analysis?

NAB, down trend, may setup for another short....................

Paladin · 18 August 2008

IFocus said:
Paladin since I stuck my nose in here guess I better contribute some thing

SBM looking at the weekly chart shows rising volume may repeat may signal buyers moving in but this is still to be confirmed, this could lead for a move up to test 38 cents area but the daily chart shows the down trend currently still intact with a couple of buying spikes. The relatively average daily price range at these buying points show sellers still in control.

I don't see a trading opportunity other than looking at the down side and for that to happen price needs to consolidate to form some definitive boundary's to work with.

Hope this helps

Hey Ifocus and all

This has been a really interesting thread on a number of levels, and I thank you all for that.

One thing that you've done Ifocus (and Canaussieduck too) which I think bears underlining, is to look at the weekly charts in addition to the dailys. Being a bit of a gumby this is something I've only recently started doing, and it makes a number of things a lot clearer in terms of filtering some of the noise out of the charts - especially with stocks that have poor liquidity. So that actually helps muchly. I've very much started looking at weeklies as well as dailys in trying to get a handle on trends.

This is such an obvious thing, and yet wasn't a 'trick' clearly pointed out in the intro-to TA books I've been reading. That one was worth the price of admission to this thread alone for me

Paladin · 18 August 2008

tech/a said:
Paladin.
Your justification of your interpretation of your technical analysis is self supporting.

Your obviously long and looking for anything that supports your view.

SBM is a dog.

Hey Tech/A.

You've actually kinda got me wrong. A more detailed crit on why the analysis was self-supporting and what gaps were in it might have been useful at the time, as you're obviously more experienced than I and are the kind of person I was hoping I might learn something from. For whatever reason, you've been. . . erm. . . coming off as hostile (maybe it's just me) towards my posts in this thread - and perhaps the whole premise of the thread itself. The latter is perhaps fair enough. That said, you're reading in personal motivation (re your 'obviously') that I don't believe is actually present.

SBM is, for me, primarily an exercise in trying to get a handle on TA. Being volatile and distressed it has taught me quite a bit - about where I'm 'reading into' as much as anything. I'm not at all emotional about this stock (which hit my stops and meant I was out with a small profit). I am, in fact, now staying well out of it until a clearer pattern emerges and paper trading it only. So, no, was never long on the stock - just trying to get in near lows and out near peaks 80% as an exercise in chart reading. I figure if I can come out vaguely ahead with a stock like SBM I've picked up some skills.

Frankly I see a number of weaknesses with that company that aren't strictly reflected in the charts (unless you're in the 'everything is reflected in the charts' camp). I have no idea where the stock will head medium term, only that the market is hypersensitive to bad news around it at the moment, and so the SP is trading on a hair trigger to the downside.

If I've offended you in some way it was purely unintentional. Anyway, all the best.

tech/a · 18 August 2008

Offended?--Me?

You couldn't do that.
I'm blunt and obnoxious.

Most have become used to me,the rest ignore me.

The best crit is the end result.
You can do that yourself. (Crit your analysis).

That said, you're reading in personal motivation (re your 'obviously') that I don't believe is actually present.

Really?

I was lucky enough to fill my boots at between .19 and .225, so even if my stops are hit now I'm nicely in the green.

Now call me a cynic---BUT a post on the day you "Fill your boots" suggests to the cynic in me that your looking for support of your rather "Cleaver" trade. With of course supporting and confirming analysis.

I mearly presented a rather harsh alternate view.

Anyway back to the pound!

Paladin · 19 August 2008

tech/a said:
Now call me a cynic---BUT a post on the day you "Fill your boots" suggests to the cynic in me that your looking for support of your rather "Cleaver" trade. With of course supporting and confirming analysis.

I mearly presented a rather harsh alternate view.

Ah. Well I see where you're coming from. Perhaps I was feeling happy that I'd gotten in at those levels and was in a position to clear out with a little profit. Which is what happened. Equating it to being 'obviously long' on the stock was way off. And, no, you didn't present anything approaching an alternate viewpoint - more a personal dig. But anyway, meh. I'm already giving this more energy than it deserves. I'll try not to throw you any more bones.

tech/a said:
Anyway back to the pound!

Have fun there. Don't forget to get a nice flea dip, a distemper shot - and have your temperature thoroughly checked by the nice work experience bloke !!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AkLE4X-bbU

Uncle Festivus · 22 September 2008

Woof, woof! If only all dogs returned 75% in 6 weeks

Hamfisted chart reading TA exercise

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