Normal
The Three year chart for GPT shows the steady climb of the share price as the market (herd) continued to warm to the strengths of GPT's Board & Management and the consistancy of their results. No doubt the improving yield helped as well. A retrace (falls in the Aud$ v's the US$) followed buy a surge (the foreign yield chasers using low interest borrowings) followed by another retrace (further falls in the Aud$ versus the US$) another surge (dead cat bounce) then a steady fall. A head and shoulder pattern if ever there was one. Left shoulder higher than the right shoulder and the nay-sayers in the herd start running arround screaming "the sky is falling, sell sell".[ATTACH]54589[/ATTACH]The Half Yearly report has plenty of good news but the analysts tend to overlook the "what a great job we've done" aspects and focus on the "batten the hatches, difficult conditions ahead" aspects. Rats start deserting the ship, not having the mental capacity to consider that the directors and management might have the ability and skills to guide the ship through the stormy weather to safe harbours ahead. The share price falls further and tests the previous support levels of $3.54.The figures speak for themselves: Share: GPT Date: 27-Sep-13 Closing Price 3.52 Issued Shares 1,694,888,368 Capital 5,966,007,055 Earnings $ 0.3360 ROE 9.55% Dist $ 0.198 Yield % 5.63% P/E 10.48 NTA $ 3.73 Discount to NTA 5.63% How many time have we heard that "the market is never wrong"? Yet, obviously, from time to time the market does get it wrong and then corrects itself. Or is this simply the smart money pushing the market down so they can acumulate before pushing it back up again? The RSI chart suggests that the share price of GPT is slightly oversold:[ATTACH]54590[/ATTACH]The MACD chart shows that GPT share price is moving in a tight downward spread and the converging and diverging gaps are tighter than normal (the multiple moving averages chart is to scary to show here, children would have nightmares and grown men could weep):[ATTACH]54591[/ATTACH]And yet, the comparative chart for the last twelve months with SGP (who once aspired to take over GPT) shows that SGP has resurged in the present conditions while GPT has been abandoned, why?[ATTACH]54592[/ATTACH]GPT has a NTA of $3.76, their debt gearing of 19.9% is one of the lowest of all the A-REIT's if not the lowest. One of the leading brokers suggested in June of this year that GPT had a target price of $4.33. Yet GPT has fallen 15% from their recent high of $4.16 (hit $4.20 interday) to $3.52. The Aud$ has fallen roughly 13% from the April level of US$1.06 to the current level arround US$0.94. This smacks of an over-reaction or something working behind the scenes.To me it simply doesn't ring true. When GPT was making a play for Australand it was the darling of the A-REIT's. Not only did the share price of Australand (ALZ) go up but so did GPT. When GPT announced that they would not pursue ALZ both share prices dipped but not that much to be worried about. Curiously when Dexus made a play for the management rights of CPA (and was rumoured to be trying to finance a buyout scrip/cash offer for CPA) the share price of GPT seemed to slump even more. This despite the head honcho of GPT reminding the market that GPT has a war chest of $2 billion plus available. This with a gearing of only 19.5%! At this point I feel that I am out of synch with the rest of the market. I see GPT as having the capacity to swallow Dexus (DXS) and Commonwealth Offices (CPA) then divest the less desirable assets to other A-REIT investors such as the Singapore Superanuation Fund or the Canadian Teachers Superanuation Fund etc etc.Then again, what would I know, mind you if I worked for one of the big merchant banks, this is the sort of deal I would be trying to stitch together. The fees (bonus) would be fantastic and the long term winners would be the share holders all around. As always do your own research and good luck.
The Three year chart for GPT shows the steady climb of the share price as the market (herd) continued to warm to the strengths of GPT's Board & Management and the consistancy of their results. No doubt the improving yield helped as well. A retrace (falls in the Aud$ v's the US$) followed buy a surge (the foreign yield chasers using low interest borrowings) followed by another retrace (further falls in the Aud$ versus the US$) another surge (dead cat bounce) then a steady fall. A head and shoulder pattern if ever there was one. Left shoulder higher than the right shoulder and the nay-sayers in the herd start running arround screaming "the sky is falling, sell sell".
[ATTACH]54589[/ATTACH]
The Half Yearly report has plenty of good news but the analysts tend to overlook the "what a great job we've done" aspects and focus on the "batten the hatches, difficult conditions ahead" aspects. Rats start deserting the ship, not having the mental capacity to consider that the directors and management might have the ability and skills to guide the ship through the stormy weather to safe harbours ahead. The share price falls further and tests the previous support levels of $3.54.
The figures speak for themselves:
How many time have we heard that "the market is never wrong"? Yet, obviously, from time to time the market does get it wrong and then corrects itself. Or is this simply the smart money pushing the market down so they can acumulate before pushing it back up again? The RSI chart suggests that the share price of GPT is slightly oversold:
[ATTACH]54590[/ATTACH]
The MACD chart shows that GPT share price is moving in a tight downward spread and the converging and diverging gaps are tighter than normal (the multiple moving averages chart is to scary to show here, children would have nightmares and grown men could weep):
[ATTACH]54591[/ATTACH]
And yet, the comparative chart for the last twelve months with SGP (who once aspired to take over GPT) shows that SGP has resurged in the present conditions while GPT has been abandoned, why?
[ATTACH]54592[/ATTACH]
GPT has a NTA of $3.76, their debt gearing of 19.9% is one of the lowest of all the A-REIT's if not the lowest. One of the leading brokers suggested in June of this year that GPT had a target price of $4.33. Yet GPT has fallen 15% from their recent high of $4.16 (hit $4.20 interday) to $3.52. The Aud$ has fallen roughly 13% from the April level of US$1.06 to the current level arround US$0.94. This smacks of an over-reaction or something working behind the scenes.
To me it simply doesn't ring true. When GPT was making a play for Australand it was the darling of the A-REIT's. Not only did the share price of Australand (ALZ) go up but so did GPT. When GPT announced that they would not pursue ALZ both share prices dipped but not that much to be worried about. Curiously when Dexus made a play for the management rights of CPA (and was rumoured to be trying to finance a buyout scrip/cash offer for CPA) the share price of GPT seemed to slump even more. This despite the head honcho of GPT reminding the market that GPT has a war chest of $2 billion plus available. This with a gearing of only 19.5%! At this point I feel that I am out of synch with the rest of the market. I see GPT as having the capacity to swallow Dexus (DXS) and Commonwealth Offices (CPA) then divest the less desirable assets to other A-REIT investors such as the Singapore Superanuation Fund or the Canadian Teachers Superanuation Fund etc etc.
Then again, what would I know, mind you if I worked for one of the big merchant banks, this is the sort of deal I would be trying to stitch together. The fees (bonus) would be fantastic and the long term winners would be the share holders all around. As always do your own research and good luck.
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