GDN - Golden State Resources

bigdog said:

Does anyone plan to attend the Forum in Sydney where GDN will be presenting on June 17?
-- maybe our forum can prepare a list of questions!!

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I will be attending, and selling nooses for 10 bucks each, I reckon we can form a decent lynch mob!

mastatrada said:

I will be attending, and selling nooses for 10 bucks each, I reckon we can form a decent lynch mob!

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The only thing I would question at this stage is why they didnt defer the expiry date for the oppies for at least another month.
A lot of people have lost money trading them and the SP will not be anywhere 20c by next Weds so they will all expire worthless.

DAZT49 said:

The only thing I would question at this stage is why they didnt defer the expiry date for the oppies for at least another month.
A lot of people have lost money trading them and the SP will not be anywhere 20c by next Weds so they will all expire worthless.

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datz, (or indeed anyone who knows this share well) as much as the day to day activity of the gdn holders seems to be primarily on the options and the sp, does it ever come into consideration as to what the economics are of the play itself.

what is evident in the usa oil sector is the tremendous numbers of rigs stacked up, and i have mentioned before studies done by the oil industry itself which clearly say that the economics of developing gas plays, particularly in UTAH, doesnt even become viable under $6 no matter how many tcf you claim you can extract.



those rigs are not stacked up for maintenance, they are no stacked up so they can do an accurate count of rigs, they only stacked up because the oil and gas prices on the fields they were operating on are no longer viable.

now $6 is the base price where you start to consider gas projects, unless you have massive wells delivering extremely economic volumes, on the greater majority of the wells drilled, then your starting to make some inroads.

i read the hc forum and notice the primary thoughts are on making a killing on converting options or how everyone is being ripped off, and the moderators have to constantly stop the ramping that goes on, so little quality or intelligent analysis or debate happens.

does any long term holder in the gdn stock look at economics of developing new plays? what the delivery of a well needs to be and what the base price of the commodity you extract needs to be for anyone to be in profit?

i see other companies shut down all exploration in the usa, and bunker down for a better oil price and gas price, entire fields have had no further wells drilled for quite some time, and they are developed fields..

for a long term holder in any oil or gas share, so excluding the average daytrader, other investment factors need to be put into consideration. sure its exciting to see the sp fluctuate 100, 200, 300% on the strength of a background gas reading, and we all understand and know the directors of gdn are not oilmen, but surely they have other skills, maybe accounting? who knows, but why not explain how the economics work, and how this play in utah is somehow going to be unique to what the entire planet and all oilmen in usa are all experiencing? and lastly can anyone define how the economics can be demonstrated to make the development of a new field commercial?

there has been so much hype on this share, so much said in favor of why it will make every investor into millionaires, but can someone please put forward a business model that makes sense to the industry?

i want to invest in oil companies, but i need clarification on how the whole thing is going to be viable long term.. has any investor or broker run the numbers??

can anyone talk me through it?

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=77352

US Has Almost 100-Year Supply of Natural Gas


The amount of natural gas available for production in the United States has soared 58% in the past four years, driven by a drilling boom and the discovery of huge new gas fields in Texas, Louisiana and Pennsylvania, a new study says...........

............The new study represents an authoritative confirmation of other recent estimates, including an industry-backed report last summer that concluded the U.S. could have as much as 2,247 trillion cubic feet of gas. Unlike that report, which was based on company estimates, the Potential Gas Committee's study was prepared by industry geologists who analyzed individual gas fields using seismic imagery and production data provided by gas producers. The surge in gas resources is the result of a five-year-long drilling boom spurred by high natural-gas prices, easy credit and new technologies that allowed companies to produce gas from a dense kind of rock known as shale. The first big shale formation to be discovered, the Barnett Shale near Fort Worth, Texas, is now the country's top-producing gas field, and companies have made other huge discoveries in Arkansas, Louisiana and Pennsylvania. Together, the shale fields account for roughly a third of U.S. gas resources, according to the Potential Gas Committee.

The sudden increase in supplies, combined with a drop in demand due to the recession, has led to a gas glut, pushing prices to about $4 per million British thermal units down from more than $13 per million BTUs last July.

agentm,
Havent got time to argue with you, but will sum up most of your argument with one word...risk. And isnt that in investing in speccies is all about?
Para 1 ws drilled when the price WAS $13/mmcf, there was no "glut" and there was NO recession.
Are you suggesting they should abandon the project because of economic circumstances today?
The world doesnt stand still.
Most people would agree that the market/ecomomy is recovering, demand is rising hence the price of gas is rising, making the project more viable as time goes on.
As to the US having 100 years of gas, the Latrobe Valley has 500 years of brown coal, I dont see other coal companies closing down or stopping exploration.
Another thing...
You and pilots are constantly harping on about the rampers on this thread, given that only about 6 people post here and 2 of them are against the stock and cant see what you are on about.
IMO it was the drampers on the other place that caused ,thru mass histeria the SP to tumble from 20c to the levels we see now, and posters like yourself have some blame in that too.

Agentm, top post, hit the nail right on the head. The MOST IMPORTANT POINT in your post was the fact that the directors of GDN are not oil men, this is, and always will be, the biggest down fall for GDN, they can hire the best they can find, but how will they EVER know when they are getting the truth. Now Agentm, good to know that you and I are the ones that have crashed the SP for GDN, I always thought it was the fact they have never found any Gas that brought the SP down.

pilots said:

Agentm, top post, hit the nail right on the head. The MOST IMPORTANT POINT in your post was the fact that the directors of GDN are not oil men, this is, and always will be, the biggest down fall for GDN, they can hire the best they can find, but how will they EVER know when they are getting the truth. Now Agentm, good to know that you and I are the ones that have crashed the SP for GDN, I always thought it was the fact they have never found any Gas that brought the SP down.

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1. Agentm, top post.
How unlike you suzy.
2. the directors of GDN are not oil men..
errr I thought we were looking for ...oh yeah..gas, and what is Ricky De... a dentist??
3.they have never found any Gas .
So what is that stuff they found....beer??

LOL funniest thing ive heard since nanna got her boob caught in the mangle........ ppl stating facts on forums are the reason GDN crashed .LOL ....unreal ....... by the way i dont know why you keep harping on about that GDN should of extended the oppies expiration .IT JUST CANNOT HAPPEN .. they are dated oppies which means they EXPIRE on the date given ......... oh dear wouldnt it be great if we could change the rules for every loss we ever take hey !

dear datz ........ please understand that no amount of blaming ppl for providing facts will change the fact that GDN has shafted shareholders yet again but hey if thats what makes you feel better about your hold you carry on .........

i do feel mighty sad for those that got suckered in by the rampers on GDNO tho and think a few ppl providing facts about them beats listening to ppl suckering in ppls cash by ramping them anyday

no offense intended but geeeeeeeeez

get over it , its just a 3 letter swear word

p.s

IF even one of my posts stopped even ONE person from sitting on a 100% loss on GDNO i am a very happy vegemite

Its interesting to me that you say that only the drampers provide facts.
Like pilots just posted that they havent found gas.
Have I harped on about the oppies?? I think I posted twice about deferring the expiry date, quite allowable within ASX rules, they hoped to raise $20mill,they will raise $0.
I took a hit on the oppies, thats trading.
What was the 3 letter sear word?

DAZT49 said:

Its interesting to me that you say that only the drampers provide facts.
Like pilots just posted that they havent found gas.
Have I harped on about the oppies?? I think I posted twice about deferring the expiry date, quite allowable within ASX rules, they hoped to raise $20mill,they will raise $0.
I took a hit on the oppies, thats trading.
What was the 3 letter sear word?

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point out where i said that re de rampers ONLY providing facts

dunno about pilots , my comments have nothing to do with his posts

i have never seen DATED oppies extended , seen plenny expire worthless tho , maybe provide a link to support that claim ?

quite a few ppl took a hit of 100% on the oppies from listening to ramps on forums ..thats not trading .thats plain sad

GDN a 3 letter swear word to a lot of punters out there lately

nunthe,
Seriously, I dont want to get in a slanging match with you.
I have made too many enemies on the forums.

DAZT49 said:

nunthe,
Seriously, I dont want to get in a slanging match with you.
I have made too many enemies on the forums.

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uh ???????

i merely answered your previous post , no slanging involved .......just giving my answers

DAZT49 said:

1. Agentm, top post.
How unlike you suzy.
2. the directors of GDN are not oil men..
errr I thought we were looking for ...oh yeah..gas, and what is Ricky De... a dentist??
3.they have never found any Gas .
So what is that stuff they found....beer??

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D49, 1 Agentms post is a top post, FACT.
2 Do you really know who Ricky is working for??
3 In todays market under 1Mcfad is a just passing wind.

A top post must have balance.
Yeah I know, Rick works for the CIA, he is really Bruce Willis.
(ok who IS he working for Scully?)
The jury is still out on the mmcf/d.

nunthewiser said:

p.s

IF even one of my posts stopped even ONE person from sitting on a 100% loss on GDNO i am a very happy vegemite

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On a different forum I was getting hate mail/PMs from a GDN holder, after he had lost 50% of his money he sold out, he then sent a long PM, saying how he wished he had sold sooner and had taken my advice.
Funny how things have changed over time, the same thing happened with CVI, I have received many apologies from posters who only six months ago HATED my guts.

nunthewiser said:

uh ???????

i merely answered your previous post , no slanging involved .......just giving my answers

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i dont get the slanging either?

datz, your answer was that you believe risk is the consideration in these stocks.. i agree the risk of success is big factor, but even more important is the economics, it outweighs risk 10 fold.. there are all sorts of gas and oil plays on the planet, but firstly they become viable to drll only when the economics are there.. i am looking at the first part of the equation, what is the economics of the primary resource and the cost of extraction.


datz you mentioned the $13 gas on para 1, thats obviously in economic territory with wells producing 5-10 times the rate para 1 did, the current price isnt nor would that flow rate ever be. its sub economic, but the point is how can it be economic now today? what numbers are being used here?

you mentioned recessions and said this

"Are you suggesting they should abandon the project because of economic circumstances today?"

All responsible oil companies, from the largest to the small caps, are exactly doing that datz, and have done that before and will do it again.. look at ADI, who saw gas and oil go down, oil went to $35, and the $AUS collapse against the $US.. now oil is back at $70 the project is very economic again.. and we see them beginning to come back into the eagleford shale play again. look at pioneer, they shut in all its exploration and development wells on their very successful edwards play, but kept their exploration in the eagleford play solely. explorers like petrohawk, apache and concocophillips and many others are chasing econimic plays with high values of oil in them, and with the eagleford, due to the condensate in the gas, 80% condensate return in the gas is very much a play where you can make the economics work..


i actually wrote a post asking for some sort of understanding on economics for the region and the play, granted i know its early days and there has been so much made of the background gas readings, but i am interested in how to make the long term valuations.. i see i am criticised and apparently somehow making the sp go down (wtf is that about??) and who do you think you are datz saying that about me.. you mention you make a lot of enemies, but why make such ludicrous allegations about a simple question any investor would ask and should know the answer to immediately if investing for the long term.

can someone who is in this share long term, please run some numbers by me and explain what the economics are so it can be evaluated.. i include you datz as long as you remain civil..

Agentm, has D49 come back to you in a PM with the numbers, I cant see a reply here, if so could you post the numbers. Thanks.

pilots said:

Agentm, has D49 come back to you in a PM with the numbers, I cant see a reply here, if so could you post the numbers. Thanks.

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This aint school ,I am under no obligation to provide "numbers" to anybody lol
This is no royal commission.
The "numbers" are only relevant when you buy in to a stock, that was a century ago now, and a century ago I made my decision to by in on the'numbers" at that time.
And that was ...
http://www.goldenstate.com.au/uploaded/files/client_added/CKLocke-GDN.pdf

"KEY ASX DATA
Price of Shares (FPO) $0.22
Number of Ordinary Shares 135,674,704
Market Cap ($) 29,848,435
Listed Options 32,633,433
Unlisted Options 23,250,000
12 Month Volume 151,850,275
12 Month Price Range $0.12 - $0.275
12 month Target $1.00 - $1.50
GDN anticipates the prospect may hold up
to 3 TCF of gas equivalent with a mid-target
of approximately 440 BCF plus liquids with
an assessed probability of success set at
over 19.5% by the company’s geologists.
With GDN’s equity of 83.3% in the Golden
Eagle prospect; GDN believes the company
can potentially offer great leverage of
success. A mid-case potential discovery of
440 BCF of gas would equate to a
significant move to GDN’s share price on
the ASX.
A minimum case of 50BCF currently is
potentially economic. Even based on this
alone it technically values the GDN share
price at $1.00 to $1.50."
I have stated that I am LT and will consider my options when Para 2 goes into production and when Para 3 is spudded.
That is my plan on this stock.
It may be different on other stocks in my meagre portfolio.
Agentm,
you said..
"i see i am criticised and apparently somehow making the sp go down (wtf is that about??) and who do you think you are datz saying that about me.. "
Cant see where I mentioned you personally, unless your name is Agent Drampers.

Well D49, if you can buy a stock at around 7c, and it go's to $1.00 you are on a winner.

pilots,
It went to $1.20...twice
Be a long time before it gets to a buck again.