- Joined
- 16 June 2009
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Have you done any backtesting at all?
Brad
No, looking into that right now actually because i can't paper trade on the weekend, any programs you can recommend?
Maybe trying to trade on reversals too much, trade with general trend more, against it less...
The conclusion I draw is that the traditional thoughts on using moving average crossovers as filters for trading systems have it backwards.
All of these techniques are top/bottom picking techniques, though poor ones.
when 5 crosses 10 may indicate a new trend
equal with stop loss or manually keep moving up stop loss bar within 10pips of price
The system seemed to predict trends pretty well (in my small sample using it). The reason i stopped using it was because i found the trend had usually already well and truly changed by the time these 3 were in agreement and it wasn't allowing me to enter early enough
More indicators doesn't equal more "pure" entries not subject to noise. Less is better.
Then your signals are already in conflict with your thinking. All of these techniques are top/bottom picking techniques, though poor ones.
Before you start designing a system you need to first discover how the market you have chosen moves. Then find a way to exploit what you find. Picking trading "wisdom's" (MA crosses) out of the blue and throwing them at a market is a classic F up most starters waste time on.
And most stay with their time wasting approach. Do yourself a favour and learn anatomy 101 before you move onto surgery techniques.
looks like i need to make this my next step "Look into which pairs suit my time frame" before i do anything else. I work fulltime so will mostly be trading between 8pm -12am (Melbourne), any suggestions on which pairs i should look at for these times?
re: MA crosses, the system i played with used MA crosses when RSI > 50 (long trades) and stochastics were increasing but not in overbought territory. The system seemed to predict trends pretty well (in my small sample using it). The reason i stopped using it was because i found the trend had usually already well and truly changed by the time these 3 were in agreement and it wasn't allowing me to enter early enough
looks like I need to make this my next step
Not necessarily. If he's trading with the trend, they will show the swing highs and lows. The main problem is that these are lagging indicators, and that they will often have him entering on noise.
Lagging indicators always predict trends well - in hindsight. It's why most people should probably just dump them altogether. They're a distraction, and removing them allows the trader to focus on price action.
Well there you go.
The only piece of real practical advice passes like an un wanted birthday present---still wrapped---note even looked at.
Quote:
Originally Posted by roland
quite a dumbo response for a valid question, thanks - I used to respect your posts
Come on just playing didn't mean to offend:. But its the basis of what I think makes the diff.
You have to practise, practise and then practise some more. Its all about screen time, years off it.
I will run over how I go about this eventually but it will be of no use to just know what I do. You still have to do the time. I see this time and time again. People "learn" a TA method and are using it 2 weeks after discovery. To me thats all wrong.
Looking for traditional TA patterns in your instrument is completely the wrong way to go IMO. Whoever said they even occur often enough in your instrument and on your time frame?
Of course you use Support/Resistance/Higher Highs/Lower Lows and all the basics but I reckon you are better off just looking at your market and finding "its" patterns. .
Thats what always gets me about TA. People use patterns that they don't even know their probabilities in the market they apply them to.
The great supposition of the amateur is to quickly discard a lagging indicator even with or without all of the information.
JUmping from the school of oscillating indicators to "only price action" mantra seems to be a trend.
So it could be said entering into a trade based solely on an oscillating indicator may find noise.
It could also be said entering a trade based solely on price action may find you being sucked into a false move.
The true expert will not discard anything because they will know why. TH's post is a good one. Yes Tech I saw it but you beat me.
I'm going to pick one currency pair and trade for the week without any indicators just the candle bar chart
A somewhat smaller supposition that I know nothing of price action. And yes all derivations of price computated constitute the basis of an oscilating indicator.Looks like you forgot that indicators are based off of price action:. The true expect will only use what he needs and no more. If the indicators are based on price action and one can read price action well, then there's no need for indicators.
I'm going to trash my original plan now and take a different approach.
right on cue dr brett has an article for ya,
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/06/gaining-feel-for-markets-by-immersion.html
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