My view on Euro daily, IF the trend is still up into November 4th (time cycle termination point) then we might put up a high into that day and a bigger correction could follow.
October 29. Although not doing a whole lot now after the break above 1.4400 early this morning, EUR/USD looks poised to trade higher with dealers noting stops just above the early high of 1.4426 at 1.4430. Option barriers are tipped just above at 1.4440 and larger at 1.4450. Asia does not look to be in any mood to extend moves to the topside but London could see EUR/USD spurt higher should these levels be pierced. In the meantime, headwind will continue to be seen on defense of these upside barriers and on profit-takes from some longs. EUR/USD is currently indicated at 1.4410/11.
All right, I think finally it is time to start to think the Euro will correct from here....
I have taken a short with a stop loss of 144.60, MT down with a cessation of a wave 5. If we can get below the current trend line at about 1.435~ I would look to add to the position. Kauri, interesting note from WSJ regarding interest rates and I do think economically that makes sense - as for what Bernake will actually do - beats me!!!!!!
Cheers
Reece
London, October 30. The late Asian dip found real money, Asian interbank and other assorted buyers amid the move lower but it was not until rumors of Chinese buying surfaced that the lows were forced. Into early Europe and spot has bounced off 1.4375 to run back towards 1.4400 as this sovereign demand is discussed. Offers into the figure look to curb the initial rebound but should the price manage to take out 1.4410 then look for a retest of the all-time highs at 1.4439.
The latest Greg Ip article in the WSJ calls into question the current Fed ethos but the bulk of the market is still positioned for a 25bp rate cut from the FOMC this week. Should a deeper reduction be considered then the Dollar will be hurt further but in the short-term bulls still look to the option barriers and structures into 1.4450.
The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.4440 after the EUR/USD made a fresh all-time high at 1.4441 despite the "hawkish" WSJ/Greg IP article, lower oil prices and weaker Wall Street. The EUR/USD made another fresh all-time high at 1.4442 as soon as Asia opened and then spent the next six hours grinding between 1.4430/40. The EUR/USD pushed higher again in the afternoon amid talk of potential Asian central bank buying after a number of Asian central banks intervened heavily in their respective currencies and accumulated US dollars they don"t need. The EUR/USD traded up to 1.4448 before option related selling ahead of a 1.4450 barrier capped and kept stops above that level safe for the time being. The EUR/USD drifted back to 1.4440 after the 1.4450 failed to give way and stayed there for the balance of the session.
Proof that sentiment towards the EUR/USD is red-hot bullish was very evident yesterday when the EUR/USD plumbed new highs despite some uncertainty over the FOMC outcome created by the Ip article. Analysts feel that only a Fed no-change decision would deter the market from pushing the EUR/USD ever higher.
That do you kauri?
This better put me in the good books with your budgie
My view on Euro daily, IF the trend is still up into November 4th (time cycle termination point) then we might put up a high into that day and a bigger correction could follow.
Hi Soso, how do you get to the 4th November as a culmination point ? I am not a technical chart expert. Maybe you can elaborate a bit, why you see the 4th November as a termination point. Thanks.
So it's early next week ( sunday / monday ), only a few days to count. We shall see..
USD so far is making a nice come back after last nights record high due to the interest rate change......
At one stage, I was more than 80 pips down, but still have the trade open with a neutral position ATM..... Cautiously optimistic of a turning point here with the Euro being liquidated heavily across most of the majors....
Cheers
OK, well after all my bravado, I ended up netting this one off square after making a few pips off the Yen pairs last night.......
With hindsight, it was a sensible thing (now rallying at least 60 pips back up again), wasn't game enough to hold pre Non Farm Payrolls.... I still believe we will see a snap back, just not willing to incur the margin costs....
Cheers
Non farm payrolls - huge positive move here for the USD, slamming the door shut on any potential rate cut in Dec.....
Pair result - EUR rallies to new high..... Hrmmmmm...... ?????? Am I missing something......
100 pip range in 10 mins so far, lets see where we go from here.......
Cheers
Nov. 2. Positive US data only attracted fresh USD sellers which again raises the speculation that a central bank or banks is diversifying so aggressively that a shift in a current basket or move to a currency basket from a current USD peg is increasingly likely. EUR/USD surged to fresh highs of 1.4525 on the US data, dragging EUR/JPY through 166.50 and triggering stops. The cross spiked to highs around 166.75/80 and currently trades at 166.71 with the next resistance level at 167.25 and the high from October 31st. Cross demand may face some headwind from the credit market concerns with the attention now on the stock markets. Merrill Lynch is now down 3.4% in pre-open trading which is going to help weigh on stocks today.
Reece...
Just picked this up..
Cheers
...........Kauri
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