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EURUSD....Euro

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EUR/USD forecast

H4 graph
The pair is following a sideways trading pattern, partially leaving the “B-B+” daily downtrend. A potential of uptrend development emerged after the Friday payrolls release followed by getting to level 1.3620. The target of that potential uptrend would be found at level 1.3800. We may try to buy from 1.3820 with the target at 1.3800 and stop loss below 1.3560.




Daily graph
The pair is trading along the “F-F+” downtrend, however after the Friday payrolls release there appeared signs of an upside towards level 1.3805, which is the 4th (Elliot’s) wave. Upon getting to that level, the 5th down-trending wave is supposed to develop having the target at level 1.2870..

 
EURUSD Short....

wanted to post this while it was live but TP hit.....

First blue line my stop ent second blue line the TP +23 -comms

Tp placed in this area due to the congestion... if I was going to pick any type of support that's my best bet.... lucky for me it made it to the mid area. I still think it has some down side, but that's all for me on this run unless another very nice signal comes up.

Good Trading....
 

Attachments

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So what was your reason for getting out? Seems kind of weird to exit there in the middle, likely to go down to 60ish at least I would have thought, possibly lower. Just interested in thoughts, as your post was a little hard to understand where your actual position was.
 

position opened by STP at .3605 tp hit at .3582..... the price bounced around there.... Now I never think likely to 60ish as the range congestion was thick in that area.... it did get to 60ish but that's what happened I had no idea it would happen. 20+ was enough for me. each to there own... i never aim for to much 20+ and I am looking for the door....... that also depends on the pair.... Euro 20-30 enough.. GBPAUD 50-70 is enough. depends on the areas
 

Fair enough then

Personally would have held longer, got added support from most other things falling currently too, but well done, you got what you wanted out of it, can't complain with that!
 
ThingyMajiggy said:
Fair enough then

Personally would have held longer, got added support from most other things falling currently too, but well done, you got what you wanted out of it, can't complain with that!
Click to expand...

to be honest with you.

I am a reformed scalper (1min GBPJPY) so I do have a ingrained tendency to take smaller profit targets at times.... I did see where the euro got to but as I am out of the trade it's after the fact... so no tears from me.

23 off it is fine. Hope your short or long and picking something up

Cheers

**PS just looked again, down she goes!** no remorse
 

Is this still the floor trader method apocalypto, on a longer tf? why the change to longer term trading if you don't mind me asking, more profitable you find?
 
Kryzz said:
Is this still the floor trader method apocalypto, on a longer tf? why the change to longer term trading if you don't mind me asking, more profitable you find?
Click to expand...

Hi Shaun,

Yes still using the floor trader method for all my trading.

Moved off the 1min as it's a damn lot of work on FX, I mean real hard work.... it was taking over my time and some nights I could not get off the comp for 4 hours straight.... the reward I was getting to the life style was not worth it. I have to admit I have found FX under 15min very very challenging, concentration required is enormous.

I moved to 60 min, for 1 better life style and two more profit in the moves. This also allows me to focus on more pairs... 4 to be exact.

I moved over in Jan to 15min then to 60min. Yes I can say for the new year it has been profitable....

What i can say for sure is I enjoy this time frame a lot more. I also trade the SPI but that's on 5min for now....

Good Trading
 
H4 graph
The pair is trading along the uptrend having the upside target seen at level 1.3800 (level of the 4th wave completion). This level has been reached, leading the pair to some kind of crossroad. There are 2 variants of events to proceed:
1. If the pair continues upside above level 1.3800 (“B+” trendline), the next target will be set to level 1.3970 (2 February high).
2. In case the correction heads down below level 1.3800 and the pair gets under 1.3680, it will continue moving down with the target seen at 1.3555 and then even lower. However, it would be better to consider this (downside) variant a little later, on 16 March, when US basic rates survey will be released.




Daily forecast
The pair is trading along the “F-F+” downtrend, however after the Friday payrolls release there appeared signs of an upside towards level 1.3805, which is the 4th (Elliot’s) wave. Upon getting to that level, the 5th down-trending wave is supposed to develop having the target at level 1.2870..




Weekly forecast
The pair is trading along the downtrend, having the drop target seen at level 1.2870 (the neckline). The 4th correctional wave is being formed now. It has its top at levels 1.3800 - 1.3970. In case the pair rises above level 1.4000 there is a probability of downtrend’s cancellation. If so, the upside target will be set to level 1.4600. Meanwhile, I expect the market to turn from the levels stated above with the drop target seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th downwave).

 
do you have any alternative count?! cause it's definitely not believable even 3090 is unlikely
GL&GT
 
WaveSurfer said:
Cheers Professor.

Not the prettiest of sites that one, seems to have some good info though.

Cheers again matey.
Click to expand...

Hi WS,

Yep that's the site and system. I have added at ATR to help with confirmation.

I take it you are a EW practitioner?

Good trading to you.............
 
Tonight's Trade, sorry it's after the event.

shorted EURUSD

Retraced to the 18 WMA sold on the break of the retrace low. ATR supported the sell signal.

First blue line is ent, 1.3736 second limit exit at 1.3710.

Good trading.
 

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>Apocalypto< said:
Hi WS,

Yep that's the site and system. I have added at ATR to help with confirmation.

I take it you are a EW practitioner?

Good trading to you.............
Click to expand...

Hey buddy.

Nice KISS system you have cottoned onto. I happened to take the exact same trade. Using my own method (2 bar reversal) and noticed the FTM gave somewhat of a signal too. I'm still in the trade myself, will she how price reacts around the 3700 area and either pull the pin or add in another lot.

No mate, not an EW practitioner. I would say EW novice (very novice lol). But yea, I try to look for the 3 wave pull backs and 5 wave impulses. Very, very basic counts.

Good trading to yourself too mate.
 

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to keep things real in here with my trading, posting losses is a must.

just lost on a EURGBP trade total loss 15.3 ppips or with com 45.9 pounds. or abouts.

Took a normal signal that I post up... just this time it did not work out.

cheers, & good trading.
 
H1 graph
The pair is trading along a downtrend. The way down to support 1.3555 (“B” trendline - the lower bound of daily uptrend) became clear after the pair got under level 1.3655. Level 1.3580, stated in the previous forecast, provided some support, however this support is temporary and the pair is unlikely to get above level 1.3625.

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. The pair continues downtrend from the current level or from resistance 1.3680, with the drop target seen at level 1.3555.
2. Taking into consideration variant #1, if the pair eventually gets to support 1.3555, it may attempt starting an uptrend from there. In such case, if the pair manages to rise above 1.3615, further upside to resistance level 1.3680 will be very probable.

Moreover, if resistance 1.3680 is unable to keep the pair from rising and it gets over level 1.3715, we may expect reaching of 1.3770 - but this variant is least probable.
If the pair manages to retreat below 1.3510 after getting to level 1.3555, it will clear the way to the drop target at level 1.3450 (several last weeks’ low).


Support:
1.3580 and 1.3555 (key one)

Resistance:
1.3625 and 1.3680 (key one)
 
Forecast for the next week, from March 22 to 26. H4 graph (dated 03/22/10)
The pair is trading along a downtrend. By getting under level 1.3650 the pair gained an opportunity to drop to level 1.3550 (“B” trendline - the lower bound of daily uptrend). At the moment the market is striving to continue the downtrend and eventually get under key level 1.3500.

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the pair continues to drop and goes below level 1.3500 (with or without rebound from level 1.3580, which is highly populated with trendlines), the pair will get next drop target at level 1.3285. Resistance 1.3580 is a strong level, and the pair is unlikely to rise above it.

2. Alternative variant. If the pair loses its downside momentum, fails holding ground below 1.3500 and rises above 1.3600, it will get an opportunity to reach resistance level 1.3680. This level is a strong resistance and so we should expect downtrend’s continuation after the pair gets to it. This is due to the fact that we are still in the “F-F+” weekly downtrend, which has the drop target at level 1.2870.






Forecast for the next month, March - April. Daily graph (dated 03/22/10)
By rebounding from key level 1.3800 the pair has completed the 4th correctional wave. Now the drop target is seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th wave’s target).

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:

1. If the downtrend continues and the pair drops below level 1.3500 (out of the “B-B+” trend boundaries), the bearish sentiment will be amplified. In such case the pair will get to level 1.2870.
Level 1.3285 is an intermediate support, which may evolve a correction to resistance 1.3520 followed by rebound and downtrend’s continuation with the drop target seen at 1.2870.

2. If the pair fails consolidating below level 1.3500 and then goes above level 1.3800, the downtrend will fade out and we will expect the pair to rise to level 1.4350 and also to 1.4600.







Forecast for the next quarter, April - June. Weekly graph (dated 03/22/10)
The development of 5-wave downtrend is in progress. By rebounding from key level 1.3800 the pair has completed the 4th correctional wave and now its drop target is seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th wave’s target).
Getting to 1.2870 is probable within the next 20-30 days, after which the market will begin forming a trend-turning/continuing figure. Forming of that figure may take about a month.

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. Direct drop to level 1.2870.

2. If the pair fails consolidating below level 1.3500 and then rises above level 1.3800, the downtrend will fade out and we will expect the pair to rise to level 1.4350 and also to 1.4600

 
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