Hi Kauri
Yes, this is a great currency to trade. How do you trade this - via the shorter term 1 min chart, or longer term hour-type setup, or combination of the two? Also, are you trading this with IG Markets?
Technically, many speak now of the triple top/triangle that has formed. How does your Elliot wave approach view this? Will this be a consolidation phase, leading to higher highs, or the bend at the end of a long bull market? I recall Gann viewed triple top breakthroughs as being extremely powerful.
Any comments are appreciated.
God knows what happened to the euro then. I just closed out my 2 lots +14 at limit and +47 closed on second lot.
was a short a very sweet ride. again i say there no place like FX!!!!
there has been money every were this week, too bad I missed half it due to work!
Juncker also says that he does not consider the euro rise versus the USD desirable..
ECB sharpening rhetoric - could it hike?
What’s new? There was more ECB talk today sharpening the tone on inflation, and there is increasing speculation as to whether the ECB could even raise rates. It is unclear how big that risk is. The markets have been pricing cuts for some time and the ECB may want to send a signal that this will not be possible given current inflation rates. For example, ECB member Garganas said: "Markets have expected interestrate cuts for months, but under these conditions, for reasons that have been well explained by Mr Trichet, interest rates couldn't fall. The ECB governing council's commitment to price stability is certain".
Other members, though, have mentioned higher rates as an option. For example, Noyer said this morning: "Our big problem is to ensure that inflation falls back below 2% next year... We'll do what it takes for that... If needed we'll move rates". The ECBs Weber has also mentioned that the ECB would have to decide whether rates are high enough.
Clearly the ECB's concern over inflation (currently at 3.6%) has increased with the recent rise in oil prices and it has therefore sharpened its tone – even though ECB members seem a bit divided as to what the implications should be for rates. The flip side of the high oil price, however, is a stronger euro and weaker growth, which eventually should work to dampen inflation pressure. There is not much the ECB can do about inflation stemming from oil and food – apart from sending a signal.
Assessment and outlook: We are clearly in untested territory and hence uncertainty is huge. The market has responded to the rhetoric by sending yields higher and the curve has flattened markedly. This has apparently been exaggerated by a big unwinding of CMS steepeners (stop loss). It seems reasonable that the market reprices the risk assessment of the ECB. One of the jokers (there are many at the moment) will be how much growth slows. We will get further indications on this with Flash PMI tomorrow and German Ifo on Thursday. Our main scenario is still that the ECB cut rates in September but we need a strong slowing of the economy for that to come. The risk to our scenario is clearly that it doesn’t have room to cut in September because oil prices and hence inflation is too high.
Interestingly Danske Bank seems to think that the ECB might actually raise rates in response to perceived inflation. Anyone else earning in EUR?
at least the stall?? has given my stop time to catch up...A good 100pip drop to be on on the 5min... may be flagging/coiling/ or even ledging.... one to watch.... she dropped so quickly it has got away from my stop!!
Cheers
............Kauri
Just been phantom trading this one and the USD/AUD, (which is in a simmilar wedge) for awhile before I decide to venture in for real.Hedgies apparently have been bailing earlier...chicago CTA's did/doing what they do best... now been accompanied by the descendants of the Titanics crew... incidentally.. for all those worried about their weight.. I'll wager there would be more than one genteel lady on the Titanic regretting passing on the cakes trolley as it went passed.. 10 days late.. butt...
Cheers
............Kauri
Just been phantom trading this one and the USD/AUD, (which is in a simmilar wedge) for awhile before I decide to venture in for real.
I thought it was due for a good correction, getting a bit wedged in... but I mentioned somewhere else that I was wondering whether it might pop it's top into the low 1.60's... the top of the long term trend channel first.
So kauri, is this kauri cherp cherp cheep cheep for wagering on the USD strengthening?
A friend went overseas for a holiday a few years back and said she came back with more AUD then she went with, thanks to currency conversion swings.
I might just run down to the currency exchange booth and grab a hand-ful of USD's and put them under the matress for awhile.
Hi Whisky... freudian slip sorry.. Whiskers..
For mine the US is nearing the end of cutting.... theECB has all but put away the jack... UK is is seeing Landsend sinking... NZ is heading for recession... Aussie is starting to wobble... Germany which alone has propped up Europe is stumbling under the weight... and my Budgies are putting on their winter coats...
As for the Euro... I'm shorter than Toulouse... unless the buum falls out of the mighty US.. the DJIA is up 130 pts now, while 2-yr Tsy yields are up about 19bp at 2.379% vs 1.669% on April 14th.
Mind you... I have .."I'm wrong" stops set.. Y nott..
Cheers
............Kauri
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