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One can learn to be a discretionary trader, the information is out there.


I have tried it, but for me the time involved in back testing is very intensive, back testing a mechanical strategy would seem to be much more quantitative and quicker to get a result.  Different variables and inputs can be changed and tested very quickly with a mechanical strategy to see merit, it can be measured over different times frames, in sample, out of sample, etc.


An expectation of compound annual growth, draw down, trade frequency can be set.  This provides confidence to risk hard earned dollars in the market rather than keep it in cash or another asset class.


At the same time I try to remember that no one knows the future - it may not continue to perform as expected into the future - it is interesting to look at a 20 year back test and compare the annual compound return and count how many specific years were above and below that benchmark.  Over what period is the back test data available, what were the economic conditions like for the country during that period and what is relevant..... unfortunately only hindsight tells us.


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