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CVN - Carnarvon Energy

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Halved my position on fundamental grounds. Looks fractionally overpriced. I think some people will probably sell on the fact after drilling results and then maybe I could get the parcel back at ~65c, obviously thats pure speculation and if it runs i've still got one foot on the train.
 
Looks like there is support at 80 cents. Someone thinks theres value still in this one.

We should get some results next week which will consolidate things

Happy to be holding

DYOR
 
Apart from ROK and CVN, what was the third, I couldn't catch it.
.................................................................................
 
mkelpie said:
Apart from ROK and CVN, what was the third, I couldn't catch it.
.................................................................................
Click to expand...

if it was the same clip I saw it was Michael Langford - Quam Securities, Senior Strategist. The 3 shares he mentioned were ROC, CVN and NDO.
 
I read a report on CVN at Bell Poterberg Securities

Surprising comment : From Buy to Sell

Carnarvon Petroleum (CVN) Sell
A happy return Prev: Buy
Johan Hedstrom" jhedstrom@bellpotter.com.au
INVESTMENT DATA
Share Price $0.87
Issued Capital
Ordinary shares 672.9m
Options/other 10.0m
Fully diluted 682.9m
Market Capitalisation $594.1m
52-week low/high $0.26 / $0.885
Valuation $0.68
Price Target (12 months) $0.68
Return on Equity (FY08) 60%
The top 20 shareholders owned 32.9% of
shares on issue (as of September 18, 2008)


CVN S&P/ASX Small Resources
CVN has performed very strongly in recent months, up ~235% from the low in March 2009. We are changing our recommendation to Sell from Buy as the stock is now trading at a premium to our valuation of $0.68. CVN’s share price has even surpassed our upside case of $0.83 (using an oil price of US$100 from 2012). With recent successful oil testing a month ago and another test upcoming, the share price now reflects anticipation of further success. We like the company in all respects but consider it prudent to take some profits after such a big run."

It is a suprised comment as rarely BPS recommends sell but rarely their BUY turned out to be a real BUY any way

I have been very disappointed with BPS recommendations so now I try to see if their sell means buy for me and vice versa

CVN holders and Oil Specialists / Chartists what do you think ? Do you agree with BPS observation ?

Full report is attached. DYOR
Disclaimer : I do hold CVN a very small parcel however.
 

Attachments

  • CVN 1906 BELL REPORT.pdf
    323.1 KB · Views: 32

Hi Miner...good to see you back and thanks for posting that...very interesting. I know Bell Potter have been telling clients to lighten on CVN since this run up..but I am not entirely convinced. This run and current hovering in the 80's is hopefully a building block for future activities. As long as CVN can maintain support above 80 cents and the market doesn't implode (although I fear number 2) then we can hopefully look forward to future upside. Add to this all the talk of expansion from Ted as well as the latest round of drilling results and an increasing Oil Price (although high AUD offsets this)...and CVN can still deliver. This new field find is very encouraging and if more decent results turn up from this then this oil play just got a whole lot sweeter. Plus TSV's Warro drilling (CVN 2.5% royalty) is looking the goods and we might see some income from that (which can offset against capital losses in Aus!)

So all in all we need the following to maintain this price and go beyond:
- Positive drilling results
- New acquistions/farm-ins
- Good news from TSV
- Increasing Oil Prices
- World Markets not imploding
 
From a fundamental point of view, the general consensus for valuations range between 0.65c to 0.70c and so you'd classify it as a 'sell' as it's overbought. But at the end of the day, the market will do whatever it wants and right now I see a stock that has continuously strong volumes with the price supported above 0.80c. There is still a lot of interest in the stock and over the past few days buyers have overwhelmed the sellers quite significantly (especially on Wednesday).

If volumes start to ease and the price dips below 0.80c then i'll be reviewing my holdings. But until then I think CVN is a good hold.
 
Thanks JTLP and Kurga for very encouraging notes on CVN.
I will continue to hold and watch its performances.



Cheers
 

Thanks Miner. This report backs up my previous post and covers the same reasons as to why I have sold my holding.

The SP is in dangerous territory and based on what they might have instead of what they have and are producing.
 
CVN on shakey ground this morning. First time in a long time when sellers have out numbered buyers. Last week was sticking to 6 million units under buyers and 2-3 mill for sellers. It's currently 2.8 mill buyers 3.8 mill sellers and under 80c.
 
Looks like CVN has held up well. Up 3.66% on strong vol.

Seems like short term traders are talking this one down hoping to jump back in

DYOR
 
Hit in the morning, then the buyers swarm to it in the arvo.

It seems to be holding and consolidating above its previous highs. Not sure what this means from a rechnical perspective, but get the feeling that it is ready to blow off to a new high(at least that is what I hope).
 
OK a newbie here but from a simple TA perspective, am I correct in saying that - MACD cross above in sell signal
- low momentum / volumes

Suggests a fall in the short term? I know DYOR and charts are not always correct etc. etc.

I attach the chart I'm going off below. PLEASE THUMP ME ON THE HEAD if I'm wrong in my interpretation
 

Attachments

  • big.chart.gif
    27.6 KB · Views: 27
CVN's breaks through 80 cents is quite disconcerting IMO. It just seems to fall through with ease. Today's volume and push to 85 cents was nice (can either be attributed to people getting on board pending an ann tonight or somebody taking a large stake) but I really wish 80 cents could hold a lot better.
 


Held 80 cents nicely today despite the POO falling and Wall St. going for a dump.

Just looks strong atm.
 
ktrianta said:
Held 80 cents nicely today despite the POO falling and Wall St. going for a dump.

Just looks strong atm.
Click to expand...

It certainly did, particularly compared to the likes of NDO,ROC and even WPL.

If there was a potential buyout of CVN, gazing into a crystal ball what kind of price could it hit?
 
CVN is in a very bullish pattern.

For the believers this flag is all green.

A chart is enclosed.

gg
 

Attachments

  • cvnbull.jpg
    47.7 KB · Views: 36
What makes the above pattern bullish? (sorry I now zilch about candlestick analysis) as the trendlines are going down
 
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