McCoy Pauley
Get out of here Budweiser!
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CSS said:Spawning commenced on 14 January 2010 and intermittent spawning events occurred over the next month. At present, the broodstock are showing positive courting behaviour and may recommence spawning in March as in previous years.
If you add 38 days from 14 January 2010, then you get to Sunday, 21 February 2010. An announcement about the dying fingerlings could conceivably have been made in mid-February or earlier this week at the very latest.
IMHO, CSS has been treating its shareholders like mushrooms ever since the SPP was completed.
Which reminds me, Paterson Securities underwrote the last SPP and I remember seeing a research note which put a target of $1.33/share from Paterson Securities. I'm sure there will be a few analysts at that firm a little hot under the collar at the moment.
If you add 38 days from 14 January 2010, then you get to Sunday, 21 February 2010. An announcement about the dying fingerlings could conceivably have been made in mid-February or earlier this week at the very latest.
IMHO, CSS has been treating its shareholders like mushrooms ever since the SPP was completed.
Which reminds me, Paterson Securities underwrote the last SPP and I remember seeing a research note which put a target of $1.33/share from Paterson Securities. I'm sure there will be a few analysts at that firm a little hot under the collar at the moment.
The key sentence is this one:
Note the past tense.
Further on in the paragraph it says that CSS is conducting a detailed review of the season to date (ie., to find out what they did wrong to kill the fingerlings).
Proof is in the pudding. Market reckons the fish died so they're selling CSS because, currently, they're full of hot air.
IMO, given they've done three capital raisings in the last 12 months and severely disappointed the market, they'll struggle to raise more funds from the market. They might have to find a venture capitalist ready to risk a few mill on the chance the technology will pay off.
CSS Investors,
A very disappointing day for everybody Hagen, CSS Workforce, Investors and anybody else associated with the company.
There are a multitude of reasons why CSS has come to this and it is a bitter irony that someone, someday, will turn the progation of Bluefin Tuna into a viable and very profitile business, unfortnately, I don't believe it will be CSS.
I guess, in hindsight, I should have considered the fact that it has taken Kinki 20 years to propogate and produce aquaculture bred NBT. They have only achieved 1407 fish being moved in to sea pens after starting with 860,000 fertilzed eggs. There are still many years of scientific testing before anybody can dream of commercial quantities of BFT, but CSS have been a pioneer in starting the ball rolling.
Where to from here for remaining investors, well, there is possibly some intrinsic value in infrastructure/stock and possibly IP but this is rapidly being depleted as the company continues to bleed funds. Major investors will sell out ( many did today I suspect ) and leave the remaining stock to speculators ( hedge fund types ) hoping for a distressed asset sale and potential stag profit.
The risk for those still holding is that you stand to lose everthing. CSS will most likely cease trading without warning.
A very sad outcome for a company I once had great faith and belief in through my interest in aquaculture and , in particular, the sashimi tuna industry.
CSS Investors,
A very disappointing day for everybody Hagen, CSS Workforce, Investors and anybody else associated with the company.
There are a multitude of reasons why CSS has come to this and it is a bitter irony that someone, someday, will turn the progation of Bluefin Tuna into a viable and very profitile business, unfortnately, I don't believe it will be CSS.
I guess, in hindsight, I should have considered the fact that it has taken Kinki 20 years to propogate and produce aquaculture bred NBT. They have only achieved 1407 fish being moved in to sea pens after starting with 860,000 fertilzed eggs. There are still many years of scientific testing before anybody can dream of commercial quantities of BFT, but CSS have been a pioneer in starting the ball rolling.
Where to from here for remaining investors, well, there is possibly some intrinsic value in infrastructure/stock and possibly IP but this is rapidly being depleted as the company continues to bleed funds. Major investors will sell out ( many did today I suspect ) and leave the remaining stock to speculators ( hedge fund types ) hoping for a distressed asset sale and potential stag profit.
The risk for those still holding is that you stand to lose everthing. CSS will most likely cease trading without warning.
A very sad outcome for a company I once had great faith and belief in through my interest in aquaculture and , in particular, the sashimi tuna industry.
Fertilised SBT eggs were also transferred to SARDI’s facility at West Beach
for continuing larval rearing trials and the preliminary assessment of the
SARDI trials is that they have been successful and achieved their objectives.
The program to date has raised new challenges and the oldest fingerlings
survived to 38 days old and were actively feeding on live feed. This year the
company was successful in feeding the larvae their first live feeds, whereas in
the previous year this was a significant hurdle. The larval rearing staff are
currently conducting a detailed review of the season to date and are working
to further refine procedures and programmes before the next spawning.
CSS Investors,
A very disappointing day for everybody Hagen, CSS Workforce, Investors and anybody else associated with the company.
There are a multitude of reasons why CSS has come to this and it is a bitter irony that someone, someday, will turn the progation of Bluefin Tuna into a viable and very profitile business, unfortnately, I don't believe it will be CSS.
I guess, in hindsight, I should have considered the fact that it has taken Kinki 20 years to propogate and produce aquaculture bred NBT. They have only achieved 1407 fish being moved in to sea pens after starting with 860,000 fertilzed eggs. There are still many years of scientific testing before anybody can dream of commercial quantities of BFT, but CSS have been a pioneer in starting the ball rolling.
Where to from here for remaining investors, well, there is possibly some intrinsic value in infrastructure/stock and possibly IP but this is rapidly being depleted as the company continues to bleed funds. Major investors will sell out ( many did today I suspect ) and leave the remaining stock to speculators ( hedge fund types ) hoping for a distressed asset sale and potential stag profit.
The risk for those still holding is that you stand to lose everthing. CSS will most likely cease trading without warning.
A very sad outcome for a company I once had great faith and belief in through my interest in aquaculture and , in particular, the sashimi tuna industry.
As someone said, you appear to have some good linguistic skills. However, putting them to one side I think I will wait to join the bandwagon on this one about them all being dead.
Maybe, just maybe I am being a little optimistic – that’s a first for me, I just don’t think that anyone could possible be so naive as to think that if they had died that they could get away without informing the market. Yep, ASIC is a joke, yet they wouldn’t let this little beauty get away if it’s true – pardon the pun.
So, yes, past tense, yet it doesn’t say they are, or have. Which, also makes your assumption for the 'detailed review' just a little putting the cart before the horse.
Unless, of course you know something???
However, at 9 cents and with a $1+ valuation, Christ, sign me up I’ll take a few thousand $’s, cant lose on that one can I? ha!
DEAD DEAD DEAD.....ALL DEAD!
Scientists and vets were continuing investigations into the mortality of fingerlings, which did not survive past 38 days, and they were confident that if the broodstock spawn in March, as they are indicating, the resulting fingerlings will survive.
.The larval rearing staff are currently conducting a detailed review of the season to date and are working to further refine procedures and programmes before the next spawning
.
As for me, I brought in at 22cents, so I might as well keep them and see if I get it back, or a little more than the 9cents on offer, or just lose the lot. So, I think these will go into the 10 year stock rebound pile, ha!
If all of this is true - they are dead, and based on some rather dodgy math of mine they have been dead for a few weeks, so we as shareholders as well as others should ensure that ASIC receives as much indignant mail as possible to ensure that this does not go unchecked, that is not keeping the market informed.
I would also suggest that maybe Paterson’s Securities doesn’t get away with, well who knows what to call it, yet I have a few words in mind, for example: incompetence; bewildering ineptitude; dodgy accounting; fictitious research; and the list goes on.
Hi Oracle, Truly a sad outcome, but i am slightly unsure, do you know if all the fingerlings did die? the wording is pretty vauge in the announcement. Do you really think it is the end of CSS? Would selling of the KF and Mulaway stocks generate enough cash to keep the SBT division going. It seems most of their losses since the beginning have been in conventional aquaculture and not the SBT breeding. Unfortunatly i doubt an asset sale will produce much cash as most assets are in the Hatchery and can not be moved and would have very few buyers as a whole. I hope they can survive and pull off closing the SBT life cycle. If the close what will happen to the confidentiality agreements with the staff. (unenfforcable?)
I too brought in at .22, i am down over 20K and i'm not rich enough to take a hit like this... turns out i'm just an old fool.
Anyway, this is what a friend of mine said - she said
I'm undecided on their long term prospects apart from a bounce trade but I had a chat with Clifford Ashby CEO this evening (he doesn't know me from Adam but was just returning a shareholder query/sledging). Most interesting, apart from the strong cash position evident from the report, is that the company is undertaking forensic testing on the fingerlings which I am told died suddenly and recently.
As it was explained to me, the current tanks are flushed with fresh sea water every day (opposed to the new tanks which circulate conditioned sea water), so the likely cause of death was disease or contaminant which entered with daily sea water (thus the sudden death) - the company's breeding facilities have since been sterilised. This is a double edged sword. On one hand it could be easy to fix a contamination problem in the breeding stage, especially in their new (circulated, can't remember the term he used) facilities. But A) surely this was a risk for which they were prepared? possibly not well enough? and B)ultimately the little buggers need to man up for the sea cages or there's little point to the spawning in the first place.
CEO said forensic testing will confirm the cause and this may or may not be announced to the market depending on it's "material affect on the business".
There was lots more discussion about cash burn (well controlled now that business model has/is being refined), future capital raising (none foreseen, hmmm), the lack of clarity in the announcement (ie. we were promised sea cages but these weren't even mentioned - yes they're sorry about that), the excellent state of brood stock both offshore and inland tanks, progress of farmed offshore fish (excellent) and lots about the scope and speed of the tuna market opening up - but too much to put down now in any detail. Actually, much of what was discussed appears in the following article which makes a good start in deciphering today's debacle
Opinions please??
Hi Basilica,
As far as I am aware all of the fingerlings suffered a mortality event.
I am afraid that, in all likelyhood, CSS will cease trading. I can't invisage any scenario that may prevent this outcome. Even spawning success in March won't prevent their demise in my view.
The reasons I think they will fail are the following ( not necessrily in order ):
1. SBT - They are able to propogate SBT fingerlings but only very small quantities and the mortality rate is extremely high. They are many years away from commercial production, I would guess 5-10years at best.
2. YTK - After 5 years they have been unable to develop a profitible YTK business. The growth rates and FCR's are appalling and they will never achieve profitility at this rate.
3. Bank Support - No bank, in my view , will loan them any money. It is far too high risk for even the most adventurous banks.
4. Institutional and Foundation Support - Without banks the next line defence is the Insto's. With this latest outcome I believe they will sell out of CSS and will not support any further cap raisings. Even foundation investors like Simplot will desert CSS.
5. Retail Investors - Badly burnt by lack of progress and a plummeting share price even the most stoic investors will be reluctant to provide more funds.
I am sorry I can't paint a more optimistic view for remaining holders but I can only tell it as I see it.
I am no longer invested in CSS so my views are not that of a holder but I can say that I will definately not be buying any CSS shares no matter what the price.
History tells us that very few companies in this position survive. Even the last hope of a White Knight is unlikely because I can't see how they would benefit from purchasing CSS.
Please DYOR and carefully consider all the facts.
"History tells us that very few companies in this position survive"
History tells us that public companies that have cash in the bank and do not have debt do survive. You may need to clarify your line.
Basilica,
What needs to be considered is that CSS will soon deplete this cash balance. They have a rapidly diminishing source of revenue from YTK , reading between the lines, this is dramatically falling. They have 160+ staff and broodstock SBT which require immense funds to keep operational. Judging by the cash burn rate in the results I suspect this cash burn rate is increasing exponentially and the CSS board won't let the company become insolvent.
Cash in the bank is meaningless if you have very little revenue and a substantial cost burden. The only way they will avert suspension from trading would be to conduct a significant Cap raising, this won't be supported by investors I don't believe, or Hagen. As the saying goes " you can't flog a dead horse"
There will be no pre-warning, ringing of bells, last call etc. you will just wake up one morning to see a notice on the ASX - CSS suspended from trading. That will be it , then it's over to the administrators to determine what's left for investors, if anything!
There will probably be some wild fluctuations , by day traders , in the next week / weeks but it will be a case of pass the parcel and don't get caught holding when it happens.
DYOR everybody.
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