Chat Room follow up and future points...

[Joules MM1]

blackwood chat 150707 1 ...........so its the genral layout........but the focus is on the levels........the dailys..........support resisitnaces..........

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: Blackwood chat 150707 1

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/ was the above one ..........initial thread not deletable.............

shallow retrace, no backflow supply from weak or semi pros.......

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: Blackwood chat 150707 1

for sunday 22..........chips asked for us to look at this one;

the lifts, they contain the evidence.........the staggering and stalling of price into the low is the same contra signal as towards the top......again this fits into the question of trend def..........we'll use this one........mro

also, where are we defining the diff tween aggressive entrance and protective risk profile ? ........2 questions..........the task until then..........

 

[Woodchips]

MRO technicals...

 

[Joules MM1]

the genrics agree......ending diag wedge.......this is purely a test.........note the urge within the 5 rsi on twiggs that the move down was weak with a final push to get the purge........and a nice impulsion upward after the edw makes a move past the lower base-line ........what we're looking for is the intent to force the best value out the weak hands........

 

[Joules MM1]

mro

ok, this goes back to the previous chat about expulsions and purges......these are purposeful actions and not just events of limbic or amygdala rarities.........it's the availability from fragile weak-hands .........the retail is emotional and the pros can tap that with this action.......two sides to the same trade........points of view from each side of the trade.......better get out and gotta get in........now or never best value and now or never bigger loss........

chips, I think this is a good call........and you didnt call it in hindsight........let's look at the minuette moves with volume

 

[Joules MM1]

Welcome! You have entered [Daytraders Lounge] at 8:10 pm
[Daytraders Lounge]: Joules MM1 has entered at 8:10 pm
[Woodchips] 8:10 pm: joules its having trouble uploading the files
[Joules MM1] 8:11 pm: how do you mean ?
[Joules MM1] 8:11 pm: did you save as a jpeg ?
[Woodchips] 8:12 pm: nope bmp
[Woodchips] 8:12 pm: is that prob?
[Joules MM1] 8:12 pm: ah.......too much info
[Woodchips] 8:12 pm: they're within the size limit though
[Woodchips] 8:12 pm: well within
[Joules MM1] 8:12 pm: can you open the bmp and resaveas a jpeg ?
[Woodchips] 8:12 pm: yep ill try hang on
[Woodchips] 8:16 pm: k its worked, if i simply send it will they appear in the message?
[Joules MM1] 8:17 pm: yes, add text and it should all work finne.....you can delete the post within 15 mins
if its not ok
[Woodchips] 8:19 pm: all done
[Woodchips] 8:19 pm: first time. takes a bit stuffing around to get the hang of it
[Joules MM1] 8:21 pm: hehe
[Joules MM1] 8:21 pm: hang on take a look
[Joules MM1] 8:22 pm: just gonna put up the generics
[Woodchips] 8:22 pm: k
[Joules MM1] 8:25 pm: got the 5 rsi on twiggs open ?
[Woodchips] 8:25 pm: yep
[Joules MM1] 8:25 pm: take a look at the chart now
[Joules MM1] 8:25 pm: the one in the thread
[Woodchips] 8:26 pm: righto
[Joules MM1] 8:27 pm: just gonna post the twiggs rsi
[Woodchips] 8:28 pm: k
[Joules MM1] 8:36 pm: almost
[Joules MM1] 8:36 pm: hit the refresh in about 1 secs
[Woodchips] 8:36 pm: no worries
[Joules MM1] 8:38 pm: you see it ?
[Joules MM1] 8:38 pm: ok.........tell what yo saw .........
[Woodchips] 8:38 pm: yea just came up now
[Joules MM1] 8:38 pm: tell me what you saw in the mro that made you mention it.........it was a good
call..........
[Daytraders Lounge]: rogue_investor has entered at 8:38 pm
[Daytraders Lounge]: rogue_investor has left at 8:39 pm
[Joules MM1] 8:40 pm: hope you didint mind.......I acknowldeged you, your call on this stock movment
[Woodchips] 8:41 pm: Well i knew the fundamentals of the company were solid, the price had been
declining for some time.... that was the first thing that made look a little deeper
[Woodchips] 8:41 pm: no thats fine **** im still learning
[Joules MM1] 8:41 pm: see the 5 rsi ?
[Joules MM1] 8:42 pm: see the high on tha chart is made with the blow-off head-fake?
[Woodchips] 8:42 pm: the overal sector is undervalued at present in my opinion as well.. so plenty of
room for buying up on the down trend
[Woodchips] 8:42 pm: yes
[Joules MM1] 8:42 pm: and the rsi shows the power but the interpretaion is the availability of weak to buy
the strong........
[Joules MM1] 8:43 pm: so the distribution highlights that you need to ask WHO is buying from who and
WHO is selling to whom
[Woodchips] 8:43 pm: yes
[Joules MM1] 8:43 pm: and it has to asked as relative the prvious high
[Joules MM1] 8:43 pm: relative to the previous high
[Joules MM1] 8:44 pm: I like this stock
[Joules MM1] 8:44 pm: I like the action
[Joules MM1] 8:44 pm: I lke the longterm support
[Joules MM1] 8:44 pm: the slowdown and pruge at the low
[Joules MM1] 8:44 pm: the divertgences
[Joules MM1] 8:44 pm: the pos volume buy-up andthe test of demand
[Joules MM1] 8:45 pm: so far so good
[Joules MM1] 8:45 pm: we can see a clean line of defense for a stop
[Woodchips] 8:45 pm: yep...
[Joules MM1] 8:45 pm: we can also see a move that's sofar, impulsive up
[Woodchips] 8:45 pm: i noticed that
[Woodchips] 8:45 pm: yes...
[Joules MM1] 8:45 pm: an elliott structure if you like
[Joules MM1] 8:46 pm: and a minnuette level retrace to test
[Woodchips] 8:46 pm: faimliar with the basics of elliot wave but havent yet managed to apply it
[Joules MM1] 8:47 pm: ok, so neither of us have entered this stock.........yet
[Woodchips] 8:47 pm: not yet ****
[Woodchips] 8:47 pm: thought about it
[Woodchips] 8:48 pm: but not yet
[Joules MM1] 8:48 pm: this week I want to see where we go.......a move pass the high on better buys
over sells would call for me to enter
[Woodchips] 8:48 pm: k
[Joules MM1] 8:49 pm: have you kept a copy of all the convos we've had?
[Joules MM1] 8:49 pm: I forgot to copy some of them
[Woodchips] 8:49 pm: although not sure what you mean by 'better buys over sells'
[Woodchips] 8:49 pm: yes i have for sure
[Joules MM1] 8:49 pm: would you send them to me
[Joules MM1] 8:49 pm: I'll give you my mail in pm
[Joules MM1] 8:50 pm: I like to keep them..........
[Woodchips] 8:50 pm: k no worries, ill send them later is that ok?
[Woodchips] 8:50 pm: some are on another computer is all
[Joules MM1] 8:50 pm: sometimess the convo calls for secondary follow-up and I forget to get to those
until long after I reread the convos
[Joules MM1] 8:51 pm: no wuckers
[Woodchips] 8:51 pm: fair enough
[Joules MM1] 8:51 pm: so if you reread them .......likely you'll get some ideas...........hope so..........then
you can quiz and pose your own ideas..........you know your own method...........
[Woodchips] 8:52 pm: yep.. i already have reread them, just to recap... very useful
[Joules MM1] 8:52 pm: you see, the first task for me is to help you open your thinking process.........I
can't actualy teach to trade becasue price is dynamic so you can'tl ock the prices into a box........
[Woodchips] 8:53 pm: right
[Joules MM1] 8:53 pm: but if your imagination and your thought processes are open then you'll know to
ask the right quesitons...........
[Joules MM1] 8:53 pm: that's a whole differnt ball game..........
[Joules MM1] 8:54 pm: nont just arbitrary trendlines
[Joules MM1] 8:54 pm: fibonaccis or waves
[Joules MM1] 8:54 pm: non of that
[Joules MM1] 8:54 pm: not in an arbitrary way or application
[Woodchips] 8:54 pm: right... not a fan of fib retracement to be honest.. as a scientist i find it a little silly
[Woodchips] 8:55 pm: not to say that it doenst work occasionally..
[Woodchips] 8:56 pm: just that the idea seems a little ludicrous
[Joules MM1] 8:56 pm: Yes, I just wrote a long-winded post on the subject of live fibs...........
[Joules MM1] 8:57 pm: hang-on, I'll go find it
[Woodchips] 8:57 pm: k
[Joules MM1] 8:59 pm: do you mind if I post this convo into the chat thread?
[Daytraders Lounge]: dutchie has entered at 9:00 pm
[Woodchips] 9:00 pm: nope go for your life..
[Daytraders Lounge]: dutchie has left at 9:00 pm

 

[Joules MM1]

=========================================================
that fib post

This is a follow-on post from todays private discussion with Priceman:

Quote:

essentially, I now have more ammunition to disprove the veracity and contiguous draw-ups versus DD and thus am able to better disprove the validity of the fibonacci employment as a live trading tool........by this I mean the probability of achieving higher DD to DU is prohibitive unless the trader intends to follow a strategy of purest linear entrances and exits ........this does not suit the way I now trade.......having said that, there are times when I'll look for inverse fib ratios in retracements (in minuette and minor degree levels) and this is to assist in the proof that the move I am seeing is part of a larger move that I have already interpreted rather than to use as mechanism of itself........proving structure if nothing else and only at lower edgrees of trend

At the end of the day, imo, Fibonacci is a marvel in proving the concept of fractal robustness and the confluence of pattern structure as part of a thesis or paper on limbic systems ........beyond that, the truth is, for me, that; that empiric knowledge aside, the unfurling of a pattern does not await confirmation of a fibonacci, however, the Fibonacci does require confirmation from the pattern which is then (already) complete and not available for trade to enter .........and if I am already in pos then I hardly depend on a Fibonacci signal to exit ............

so, while that sounds a tad contradictory, because I still look for inverted Fibonacci ratios in zigzags, I do not depend on them as a signal as a Fibonacci acts as a magnet (in interpretation) and a resistance (in interpretation) and a support (in interpretation) ........as I then must use other knowledge to expand on the validity of entering or exiting on that Fibonacci signal, then, that means I would get that signal else-where, regardless............therein the tool does not actually prove that I can lift my level of risk protection. Fibonacci can actually lift risk levels, make a trader aggressive, when a trader places such a priority that that priority distracts and detracts from other key signals..........remember, this is my pov and I am not stating this as an implicit, or to be so.

I hope that is clear enough an explanation.

While I am satisfied that most of my past Fibonacci posts contain valuable information and should have been left in (T2W), I now think that to repost them maybe misleading given what Ive just said and the way I conduct business.

While I used to argue that Fibonacci carry probability, they do not intrinsically carry enough risk profile, rather, they carry a sense of "feeling" that permission is given by a regime.........any live futures trader must know that to trade purely "off" fibonacci takes an understanding and discipline that requires pristine application and I can tell you now that few traders (ever) have the ability to conduct such a pristine application and remain cognizent of what is really unfolding at critical stages of sessions.........

A good example might be that friday was a critical Fibonacci turn-date, yet, there have been a plethora of such turn-dates when nothing but continuity occurred ............so a trader would have exited or entered on that signal if no other regimen is relied upon as a signal for action.........this clearly would lead to a string of DD and an (as yet) unknown DU which may or may not be 1 or two sessions ..........take this and apply it to say the 1.618 extension of each move.......we need to know what relative size to apply and what relative size should we enter and exit on and which other extensions should take action on at the same time.........(aside from the passing the level figured)we then need to take into account what other signals would override the Fibonacci ratio as being a magnet or S/R and this brings up the question of whether that need to see and prove other signals then immediately invalidates or lessens the value of the ratio we expect to see occurr (not yet proven in the live trade)

how many times have I seen fibonacci levels get hit retrace fractionally and then revert to the one-larger degree trend? Very often is the answer. You see the inherent challenge with this? Stop, start........stop, start and all the while distracting from what is really unfolding, in realtime...........

Clearly trading on Fibonacci is not satisfactory for me and I know that I need to exapnd much more on this so as not give the inappropriate bias .........

I am adament of one thing; that there is no such thing as trading "on" Fibonacci or "by" Fibonacci .........any one who says that that is what they do is likely fooling themselves or selling a package ( this is not to be confused with Elliotts waves, which is not what I am talking about)........after trading "by" and "on" most trader come to realise that once they remove the Fibonacci side-track, that, the other understanding they require, is the technical knowledge that had priority, yet, they did not view that as such, because they were driven to "see" value in someting that is not immediately, necessarily, inviting the trader to think through the procing process ( and that area is a whole different emphasis).

to summarise and yes, I know, there is much to discuss and much time needs to be spent, on this subject, so that you can take the parts that you can use and the parts that you can place into appropriate perspective.........or, the bits that work as a ratio to the parts that rarely, if ever, "work" and produce consistant-enough results

I rebuke people who have not empirically studied the efficacey of Fibonacci and then they go on to "slag" the subject and I also carry a very strong urge to yell at someone who blindly rambles about the value of this math.


......... especially where the emphasis of a stratgey is based on Fibs, validity in the employ of Fibonacci must be done in realtime not in hindsight.

Experience has shown me that during mild periods of retracement in an impulsive set in some futures markets the 78.6 (sqr root of 61.8) is a common magnet while in other similar phases 66% is the draw and when I am expecting the 1.618 to be hit the 150 mark sees a turnaround........I am not implying that there is a level of guesswork.........I am implying that some markets at some times in some sell-downs and some buy-ups, some ratios are common ...........so the question isnt does Fibonacci work, the question is which one and how much is the trader prepared to rely given that the risk level is very high and the entrance and exits are linear when employed this way........there are so many ratios available and all of them are active........like Elliotts waves......all waves are active at the same time......the question is extent.........the trader is locked in by the system that needs to be designed to best keep the risk level at its lowest.........this has little to do with new players who enter and alter the unfurling live action........I am alluding to the distraction here......and while Fibonacci do unveil limbic properties I doubt that the average trader is ever going to learn that area of natural science.

In the area of geometric structures which include Fibonacci measures, yes, these are as much an art, of interpretation, as they are a foward-looking (expectant) science in motion.

In a live set-up, you must ask, which ratio is in action at which level. You must ask, is the ratio truly a Fibonacci or a Lucas or a geometric and the numbers arent the key because the point of the ratio is to ratify the active impulsion of Phi .........well, you don't know and you are being asked to look, keep looking and while youre doing that youre not looking at other areas which may require your attention......these are often the areas that are going to give you the real and immediate key you need to see.

trading is not a science field-trip........

let me know which parts of this you want me to exapnd on and please accept that for me to fully expand on the pitfalls and advantages I would need to do that ina live set-up.



Julian

 

[Joules MM1]

[Woodchips] 9:17 pm: yea except you can do it anywhere
[Woodchips] 9:17 pm: back to rmo?
[Joules MM1] 9:17 pm: should we go on with the look at mro ?
[Woodchips] 9:18 pm: yep
[Joules MM1] 9:18 pm: ok........so we want to interpret enrgy
[Woodchips] 9:18 pm: you got me interested now!
[Woodchips] 9:18 pm: yep
[Joules MM1] 9:18 pm: and sense of value areas..........
[Woodchips] 9:18 pm: right
[Joules MM1] 9:18 pm: the questions is ....can we prove in someway that the energy to take the price
lower is not complete?
[Joules MM1] 9:19 pm: =is now complete?
[Joules MM1] 9:19 pm: have the pros decided that now is the time after an initial earlier test if retail
interest that they can lift the price and prompt other semi pros to jumpt in and start another larger deree
upmove?
[Woodchips] 9:21 pm: k
[Joules MM1] 9:21 pm: so prior supports suggest yes, and the stronger move into the low has not
brought about enough public awareness to stop the smart money from accumulation phase........
[Woodchips] 9:22 pm: well.. i noticed a series of price jumps throughout the downward trend... that
looked suggestive to me of exactly that.. not sure if it is or not..
[Joules MM1] 9:22 pm: so we're not looking for the rocket up.......we're looking for signs that the smart
money is not distributing but not also forcing the price to ascend without finding retail interest.........the
process of ascention can't begin without finding the right level of demand to supply to..........
[Joules MM1] 9:23 pm: yes........good call
[Joules MM1] 9:23 pm: all moves have significant implications ...........again, this dpendant on which side
your view is situated..........
[Joules MM1] 9:24 pm: and like we talked about.......the time factor..........the long slow decline........the
pain factor to weal retail...........
[Joules MM1] 9:24 pm: that long tail has been called a hindge ............but the techncail term does not
tell of the game within that is being palyed over the time period...........
[Woodchips] 9:25 pm: so i guess that slow decline is like a process of weeding out the less commited
bulls... until you reach a point where enough commited bulls remain to prop up the price... and thats the
major support level?
[Joules MM1] 9:26 pm: so each lift needs to be read..........relative volume activity..........the sells into
them or the buys prior to them..........
[Joules MM1] 9:26 pm: yes......spot-on
[Joules MM1] 9:27 pm: but.........here's the thing......that's no guarantee..........we don't yet see any real
sign of strong protection to another move below that support...........
[Joules MM1] 9:27 pm: what we do see is a genuine attempt to signal to the market that the value area
has been hit...........
[Woodchips] 9:27 pm: we havent retested that support level yet..
[Joules MM1] 9:28 pm: that's right.........but the move up so far..........the right volume activity..........
[Joules MM1] 9:28 pm: so we have two major signals
[Joules MM1] 9:29 pm: we can define a clean level of stoppage
[Woodchips] 9:29 pm: so which are the primary indicators to use here?
[Joules MM1] 9:29 pm: we need to make the move this week..........the time factor has now
changed.........
[Joules MM1] 9:29 pm: we don't want to use an indicator to enter...........
[Woodchips] 9:30 pm: yea i mean in the analysis of the stock
[Joules MM1] 9:30 pm: that's vitally important...........
[Woodchips] 9:30 pm: k
[Joules MM1] 9:30 pm: let's talk about the volume.........see the 5 min chart?
[Woodchips] 9:30 pm: yep
[Joules MM1] 9:30 pm: see where the push is ...........
[Woodchips] 9:31 pm: yep
[Joules MM1] 9:31 pm: like in rmi where activity behind the scenes is telling of someone thinking about
the fundamental picture of supply and demand of the product or service...........
[Joules MM1] 9:32 pm: then that translates into the sentiment and sense of projecting that into the
price...........
[Joules MM1] 9:32 pm: the sense that there si some implid value..........
[Joules MM1] 9:32 pm: implied is not the smae as intrinsic
[Joules MM1] 9:33 pm: tapping the intrincis value is not the same as tapping the sentiment value and
then the emotinoal commitment from retail traders...........
[Joules MM1] 9:33 pm: ok.........are we seeing a lift in buy, up volume over sells and down volume in the
lower degrees of trend?
[Joules MM1] 9:34 pm: and are we seeing bullish signals from the the ohlc close bars at several degrees
of trend?
[Joules MM1] 9:35 pm: in other words is there a confluence of bars in the genric views say 5, 15, 60 mins
that transalte into dailys?
[Joules MM1] 9:35 pm: ndersstand ?
[Woodchips] 9:35 pm: sure
[Joules MM1] 9:36 pm: the candles are a bit misleading.....this is why I don't use candles in an orhtodox
way
[Woodchips] 9:36 pm: just having a look at it now
[Joules MM1] 9:37 pm: they too often require confiramtion and a game can be played that make candles
give afalse signal
[Daytraders Lounge]: clowboy has entered at 9:37 pm
[Joules MM1] 9:37 pm: all depends on the instrument..........
[Joules MM1] 9:37 pm: in this instance the candles are honest...........by that I mean the game is fairly
trasnparent adn the pros involved have no desire to thwart anythihng but an upward move
[Woodchips] 9:38 pm: right
[Joules MM1] 9:39 pm: k..........this week ...........you want to work on that chart from the high beofre the
headfake high in the mro and right out a list of history........deconstruct that chart to last week
[Daytraders Lounge]: clowboy has left at 9:40 pm
[Daytraders Lounge]: clowboy has entered at 9:40 pm
[Joules MM1] 9:40 pm: so take the histroy from the peak of the high before the fake higher high into last
week...........
[Woodchips] 9:40 pm: righto...sounds good...
[Woodchips] 9:41 pm: what sort of thing do you want me to look for...
[Joules MM1] 9:41 pm: could you do that and we'll review that work and then take into account this
weeks actions............
[clowboy] 9:41 pm: what chart?
[Joules MM1] 9:42 pm: I want you to sell me on the idea to either sell to short, buy to be long, buy to
close a short, orsell to close a long.............
[Woodchips] 9:43 pm: righto
[Joules MM1] 9:43 pm: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.p
hp?p=182324&posted=1#post182324
[Joules MM1] 9:43 pm: clowboy
[clowboy] 9:43 pm: nod, taking a look now
[Joules MM1] 9:44 pm: thanks chips ...........enjoyed the convo............if you don't mind I'll pos this part
of the talk too.............
[Woodchips] 9:44 pm: sure thing
[Joules MM1] 9:45 pm: next sunday ............I'll send my mail thorugh the pm ..........if next sunday not
good let me know
[Joules MM1] 9:45 pm: cheers mate

 

[Joules MM1]

liquidity is a key ingredient ..........we're not going to see that from a daily pov and need to dig down into the lower bars

 

[Joules MM1]

........so, that's the challenge with reliance on cross-supports and resistances .........where they are unsupported by buy/sell activity, liquidity........... this stock could travel sideways for several months until either the major capital players decide the future will not attract further outside liquidity into that sector/stock and then leave by turning over their holdings in a slow manner with just enough movement to attract bargain hunters.........or they will allow the price to stagnate until they have gathered enough scared weakhands holdings and then go a for a large buy push..........