Maybe you can work it out for me....Go back through the forum I joined in Nov 2014.Take a look at the calls I made on WOW,CBA,BHP,CAJ,CCP,TLS and see what returns could have been made at the time I made the calls.
Ok. Took me 2 hours but I've gone through all of these threads. And my understanding is as follows.
The problem is you used a lot of language like "I think" "This could" "This might" "The chart says" rather than "I have" "I did" etc. So the trades themselves are probably hypothetical. Most of it was discussed in the context of probabilities, not actions. Discussions amongst fellow chartists, not actual trades.
I can't find any mention of using stop losses. So for the purpose of this exercise I will assume it's the pretty standard, say 8%, because your comments indicate you hate being in trades that go the wrong way.
So... in no order. Your posts are time stamped, and usually after the close. So I took the next trading day's open to initiate all trades where it wasn't clear. Here are the hypothetical trades I come up with as a person reading your posts (in hindsight of course).
WOW
You had some really good analysis in this thread. I'll say that upfront. But as tech/A always says application and theory are two different things. It's hard from your posts to figure out what you actually did (if anything).
(post 453) you had a price target of $29, and looks like you shorted (
Trade #1). Market price was $31.00 on the next open (21/11/2014).
On 17/12/2014 price hit a low of $29.11. We'll pretend you accurately caught the low (unlikely in reality).
(post 462) You mention that there should be a small bounce to $34-37 area, so assume you went long again (conveniently for the exercise this is where you'd closed the short). Again finding it hard to keep up, as no actual trade details were confirmed.
Trade #2 Long 18/12/2014 at open $29.61. Price hit $34.32 on 24/2/2015. This is the best case of the $34-37 target zone. So I'll assume you sold here. No mention of this in thread, so I'm being kind again.
(post 593) You mentioned you were sitting on the sidelines (early March 2015) - must not have done much since Feb 2015? (Which fits in above with closed long trade #2)
post 634 you allude to down-trend, but say no hurry to jump in yet (long), no mention of shorting
post 637 you say it will probably go to around $26 (which you called "worst case" later - post 645) & post 640 call it a "falling knife"
I will say you shorted here.
Trade #3 12/5/2015 short at open $27.20.
post 680 you say the bottom is probably in - no further posts once it hovered around $26 so trade must have been closed.
Close 21/8/2015 $26.01 - the exact low. Again generous.
I couldn't pick out any further trades for WOW.
CBA
(Post 502) - you said LT W3 (sub wave 4) target $102 - it doesn't look like you made a buy / sell decision, due to unclear wave analysis, also see (post 504)
(Post 512) - you're now claiming to have got out at $93.90 but you never said where you got in??? Price at this date was $82.53 not $93.60
Trade #4 We'll say you went long at post 502 when the price 26/11/2014 opened at $79.6277. Again generous. And closed it at $93.60 (I've got no idea which date).
BHP
(post 2451) - you said it will fall to the $20-24 level, so assuming you went short here.
Trade #5 Short 21/1/2015 open $25.2774
But BHP went to $30 and paid a dividend before it ever went under $25 again (Jul 2015). I guess you got stopped out.
Short closed with stop 8% on 3/2/2015 at $27.30 (8%)
I can't see any mention of this trade being re-entered at the top or any where in between.
CAJ
Up front I will say I'm not sure you can actually borrow stock to short CAJ.
Looks like in (post 33) you said it will likely bounce from here.
Trade #6 Long 11/9/2015 open $0.60.
(Post 34) You indicate that it went the opposite way and broke support. So I'll call this stopped out on 30/9/2015 at $0.55.
Looks like from (post 34) you would go short here.
Trade #7 Short 4/10/2015 open $0.54
No mention of closing it. So I'll take the closing price 29/10/2015 and say you closed it there at $0.41.
CCP
(post 565) You mention a target price of $8.25 to $8.50. I guess this means short.
Trade #8 Short 2/10/2015 $9.43
Unfortunately from here the price went back to as high as $10.24. So I'll stop you out at $10.19 which is the 8% loss level.
No more trades mentioned after this date for CCP.
TLS
(post 1770) first post in thread when price was $6.00 (I'll assume you went short) - (post 1813) you said it'll hold $5.70 so I suggest this was the target, also refer earlier chart
Trade #9 9/6/2015 Short Open $6.00
The price subsequently went as high as $6.53 on 4/8/2014. Which is just over 8%, so we'll say it got stopped here.
In summary:
Trade 1 6.10%
Trade 2 16.30%
Trade 3 4.37%
Trade 4 17.92%
Trade 5 -8.00%
Trade 6 -8.33%
Trade 7 24.07%
Trade 8 -8.06%
Trade 9 -8.12%
Average win 4.03%.
From your posts I've got no idea where the 30% return comes from. Maybe I've missed something?