- Joined
- 6 July 2007
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As the subject says, all of a sudden today (pretty much soon after today's close on the ASX) I began to feel bearish. Not just hopefully bearish, but really, really bearish - I've not been this bearish since I read that:
"David Koch is one of Australia's foremost business and finance commentators. One of the 10 most influential people of all time in the financial services industry"
Hope this thread can bring those together with similar views on where the market may trend either up but in my view down over the next 3 to 6 months.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...sues-fresh-alert-on-global-stock-markets.html
"I expect this risk rally to continue into – and maybe through – a large part of August. What happens after that? The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September 'tipping zone', driven by the failure of the data to validate the V (shaped recovery) that is now fully priced into markets."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chinas-credit-bubbleicious-trade-balance-pain
In essence what is going on, is that the brief pick up in German and US GDPs on the trade balance side, are being facilitated exclusively by the credit bubble in China. By dint of China being able to recognize GDP at production instead of expenditures (like normal Western countries), China is now trying to back fill into the trade void left from the collapse of Western economies by promoting the same kind of irresponsible lending (and borrowing) that lead the US economy to its current sorry state. This will eventually end very, very badly.
Best of luck
P.S. Thanks to Michael D! His thoughts would be interesting!
G
"David Koch is one of Australia's foremost business and finance commentators. One of the 10 most influential people of all time in the financial services industry"
Hope this thread can bring those together with similar views on where the market may trend either up but in my view down over the next 3 to 6 months.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...sues-fresh-alert-on-global-stock-markets.html
"I expect this risk rally to continue into – and maybe through – a large part of August. What happens after that? The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September 'tipping zone', driven by the failure of the data to validate the V (shaped recovery) that is now fully priced into markets."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chinas-credit-bubbleicious-trade-balance-pain
In essence what is going on, is that the brief pick up in German and US GDPs on the trade balance side, are being facilitated exclusively by the credit bubble in China. By dint of China being able to recognize GDP at production instead of expenditures (like normal Western countries), China is now trying to back fill into the trade void left from the collapse of Western economies by promoting the same kind of irresponsible lending (and borrowing) that lead the US economy to its current sorry state. This will eventually end very, very badly.
Best of luck
P.S. Thanks to Michael D! His thoughts would be interesting!
G