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Calculating Instrinsic Value

Just to add my 2 cents to this thread, and preface by saying I am a (very small) shareholder of CAM, but not a subscriber of Stockval (asset base too small to justify subscription).

I have read Brian McNiven's books: "wonderful company at a fair price" and "Market Wise". Of the 2, I prefer the first. The books are NOT merely espousing a valuation methodology, but spend a considerable number of pages on how to identify a wonderful company: whose management acts rationally (ie in SHAREHOLDERS interest rather than for directors interests:they're not necessarily the same); that has pricing power; has longevity (several years of profits); that represent accounts in clear way; and have growth prospects. Of course, having identified a company with such great characteristics, one needs to know how much to pay, which is where his valuation method comes in. And dividend policy makes a big difference to valuations in his model: the "fair price" for a company with high ROE is higher if that high ROE is maintained on low div payout than if it pays out all divs (obvious when you think about it: if a company can generate 20%+ ROE p.a. over several years without paying a div, it means they're growing that company at a much higher COMPOUND rate than if they paid all their earnings out as divs, something that should be obvious from Berkshire Hathaway).

The formulae for valuing a company are in "Market Wise", but it's not a trivial exercise to make an excel spreadsheet with those formulae. I understand that there are 3-400 ASX stocks valued by Stockval in the subscription, as well as "blanks" to do your own analysis.

I would suggest read the books and see if what you read makes sense to you.

There are many ways to achieve wealth in the markets, and I am still learning that I am most likely to be comfortable with methods that fit my emotional, psychological, and intellectual understanding.
 
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