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BVS - Bravura Solutions

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Bravura Solutions provides software products and services to clients operating in the wealth management and funds administration industries, with the majority of clients in Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. Bravura's software products and services support the front-office, middle-office and back-office functions needed to manage and administer financial products across investment products and wrap platforms, superannuation, pension and retirement products, life insurance, private wealth and portfolio administration.

It is anticipated that BVS will list on the ASX during November 2016.

https://bravurasolutions.com
 
No comments on one of the best trending stocks (+125%) on the ASX in 2018.
The only question, can it continue?

The chart below is part of a research project and should not be considered a recommendation to buy this stock. If you want to read more about the project log in to read the P2 Weekly Portfolio thread.

Setup: Bouncing off recent consolidation and has now formed a continuation pattern.
Grade A
Conditional order to buy BO-NH, iSL 3.95, initial target 4.70

 

My I have an input
BVS has been good to me in the past, but its totally out of favour at the moment. The ROC indicator (yellow ribbon)is screaming be cautious, nobody is loving this stock at the moment. I'm posting charts for an alternative perspective.

Out & back in
Notice my 'stale stop' kicked me out of the trade, I say, never be afraid to sell you can always buy it back again. (small commission charge) its no big deal.

Skate.

 
Very high spread today


Up >10% at one point shortly after open but finished 2.8%
I know good results were released today but is the initial big spike just market makers?
 
BVS makes $172 million takeover bid for financial services tech player GBST Holdings.

https://www.afr.com/technology/tech...ng-172m-bid-proposal-for-gbst-20190412-p51dhs
The $2.50 per share proposal is an attempt from Bravura, which listed on the ASX for the second time in 2016 and is worth $1.1 billion, to get GBST to open up its books and grant the company an eight week due diligence period.
Click to expand...

Interesting move from BVS. The tactic of swallowing up a struggling competitor in order to strengthen your own position in the market is an age-old strategy, but a very successful one if the timing is right.

The Board of GBST Holdings has just advised its shareholders to take no action in respect of Bravura's non-binding indicative proposal. The Board has said that it will evaluate the Indicative Proposal and provide shareholders with a recommendation in due course.
 
BVS popped up in my scan and looks to be consoldating after a nice run up in April.

Pullback shown for Friday and $5.05 tested twice in May so resistance drawn at that point.

 
Bravura gets a guernsey (along with Iress IRE) in this article by a fund manager looking at Enterprise financial software firms based on the case there is benefit from two key goals, which are often interrelated:
  • Migrating the middle and back office legacy systems to a current software solution as a means of improving efficiency.
  • Improving the customer experience given changing consumer demands.
https://www.firstlinks.com.au/where-we-see-growth-opportunities-in-software-stocks

The Financial Services sector enjoys the benefit of money inflow as mandated by Superannuation, but of course is then bound by regulatory and reporting obligations.

Investment analysis within this industry is focused on answering two key questions:
  1. Are there significant reasons for financial services firms to review and migrate the core IT ecosystem? Put another way: What is the sales pipeline and how likely are these leads to convert into revenue?
  2. Which software provider appears to have the best-in-class technology offering?
It is important to understand which software provider is likely to be the biggest beneficiary of an increased sales pipeline.

In our view, Bravura Solutions and Iress Ltd provide exposure to market opportunities [as mentioned]. Both have an overlapping product suite, with Iress having a larger market share in the financial planning space and Bravura having a deeper offering and more customers in the enterprise financial software space.

We believe that both companies share similar characteristics with reasonable balance sheets providing the optionality for further acquisitions (Bravura more so), offshore exposure, high degree of recurring revenue and valuations that look reasonable in the current market environment. Bravura is likely to deliver mid-teens earnings growth over the medium term.
 
Gap down noted.
Fingers smelly.
Bottom picked...IMO.
Held.
Wednesday is last day to buy for the dividend (5.5 cent.)
Next Monday is record day.
They have a DRP as well. Strange days.
12 month chart.



1 month chart

 

18 Share Tips – 20 September 2021​


18 Share Tips – 20 September 2021

Peter Day, Sequoia Wealth Management BUY RECOMMENDATIONS Macquarie Group (MQG) Trade These Shares This well managed group offers a diversified global business model. MQG has a strong balance sheet. It has tens of billions of dollars in equity and assets under management. The company is poised to...
thebull.com.au

i notice a sell recommendation on this ( right down near the bottom )

i haven't looked at this closely in the past , but there has been plenty of disruption in the industry lately

possibly leaving the opportunity for new customers

the first glance doesn't impress me , but am looking for a few growth stocks that aren't absolute speccies

DYOR

( i haven't even decided whether to put this on my watch-list yet )
 
Noticed the reversal opportunity in BVS in the daily charts. Then looked at the ugly gap down that happened as BVS reported their FY21 results. All numbers were down. Stock dumped. I looked at the report to see what was their problem. If it was temporary and fixable then I'd take the reversal opp. as the gap fill provides an acceptable RR.



Couldn't believe the crap that mgt presented in their FY21 report.


(1) I have no idea what this line means and I don't think mgt do either.
(2) Fewer sales to large installations.
(3) There's a stack of potential clients for their mid tier products - so?
(4) Prices are too high.
(5) Customers want better outcomes.

IMO BVS mgt need to get their heads out of the sand and listen to their customers. This should be fixable if mgt can apply some commonsense and cut the gobbledygook.
 
peter2 said:
Noticed the reversal opportunity in BVS in the daily charts. Then looked at the ugly gap down that happened as BVS reported their FY21 results.
Click to expand...

well, that's nothing. Look at market reaction to the 2022 update.



peter2 said:
BVS mgt need to get their heads out of the sand and listen to their customers. This should be fixable if mgt can apply some commonsense and cut the gobbledygook.
Click to expand...
How true.... took one and a half pages to get to the meat (rancid as it is)

However, in the course of undertaking Bravura’s strategic review and assessing our current and expected performance flowing through to the FY23 budget process, it has become clear that the FY23 performance will be below market expectation.
Group revenue is expected to increase modestly in FY23 over the prior year (A$266.7m in FY22).
The trend of lower customer spend on existing and new project work post COVID in EMEA is expected to continue as customers adopt a cautious approach to spend. In addition, three legacy customer contracts are winding down during this year with the majority of revenue impact in FY24. There are no other long term contracts believed to be at risk.

FY23 Guidance
The cumulative impact of the factors discussed above, and allowing for additional costs associated with one off initiatives from the Strategic Review, is that Bravura is expecting its FY23 earnings to differ materially from analysts’ consensus forecasts. With modest revenue growth of between $270 to $275 million, and increase in the FY23 cost base, Bravura now expects to deliver EBITDA of between $10 and $15 million and NPAT to be within the range of ($5M) to $0. The H1 result is expected to reflect lower run rate revenue which is expected to build into the second half, however, costs are expected to remain broadly consistent across the year.

IE. make a loss
 
Last edited:
yes i saw the ann. earlier ( i think it was down 63% at the time )

how much is the management fault , and how much general weakness in the financial services market ... ie could this wobble lower falling out of the various indexes compelling some instos to sell completely

the long-winded information probably annoyed traders and holders alike
 
divs4ever said:
could this wobble lower falling out of the various indexes compelling some instos to sell completely
Click to expand...
I expect there’s quite a few retail traders or investors who won’t touch anything not in whatever index too. Eg they only look within the ASX300 or whatever.
 
Smurf1976 said:
I expect there’s quite a few retail traders or investors who won’t touch anything not in whatever index too. Eg they only look within the ASX300 or whatever.
Click to expand...
yes scurrying around in the small caps/micro caps ( but still looking for something paying a div. or very likely to pay a div. ) paid off several times back in 2011,2012, 2013 , stocks like ASW , so the occasional search might still pay off
 
Looking at zero profit and zero dividends. The economy has not exactly shown any strength in the last month or two so I can't imagine their outlook has improved - probably only worsened. Still has a ~ $200 million market cap, and about $70 million in net tangible assets - However this will likely drop as cashflow was forecast to be negative.

I'm not big on tech/software but I do wonder if BVS and the likes of Appen are in a similar situation where they were paying dividends at what appears to be the expense of investments in their own software and assuming sky-high irrational market valuations of their securities would somehow create value? To stay at the top in the software sector you need to keep innovating and changing and adapting.
 
$138 million MC now... suddenly that NTA figure is looking more attractive... ??
Scary chart.

 
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