New posts

Reply to thread

Message

Yep, fair call. Although I suggest you compare the results of TechTrader using various recent start dates (within the last couple of years) with the public results of the system as traded with discretion. You will clearly see shortcomings of the system if left to it's own devices, and the importance of employing discretion to prevent it from digging itself down into rather perilous drawdown situations.

As for testing the impact of discretion on results, of course that is difficult. You can't Monte Carlo that, so it's not feasible to compare the distribution of two sets of results. And as you point out, to compare the position of a single traded path within the distribution of Monte Carlo'd results from testing without discretion doesn't answer the questions: was it luck? can it be consistently repeated?

IMO, with TechTrader the discretion and/or slackness has inadvertently done what some kind of switch like an index filter might have done mechanically. The current mechanical entry is not sufficient to keep the system out of an inappropriate market.

<blockquote data-quote="theasxgorilla" data-source="post: 288531" data-attributes="member: 6099">Yep, fair call.&nbsp; Although I suggest you compare the results of TechTrader using various recent start dates (within the last couple of years) with the public results of the system as traded with discretion.&nbsp; You will clearly see shortcomings of the system if left to it&#039;s own devices, and the importance of employing discretion to prevent it from digging itself down into rather perilous drawdown situations.As for testing the impact of discretion on results, of course that is difficult.&nbsp; You can&#039;t Monte Carlo that, so it&#039;s not feasible to compare the distribution of two sets of results.&nbsp; And as you point out, to compare the position of a single traded path within the distribution of Monte Carlo&#039;d results from testing without discretion doesn&#039;t answer the questions: was it luck? can it be consistently repeated?IMO, with TechTrader the discretion and/or slackness has inadvertently done what some kind of switch like an index filter might have done mechanically.&nbsp; The current mechanical entry is not sufficient to keep the system out of an inappropriate market.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="theasxgorilla, post: 288531, member: 6099"] Yep, fair call. Although I suggest you compare the results of TechTrader using various recent start dates (within the last couple of years) with the public results of the system as traded with discretion. You will clearly see shortcomings of the system if left to it's own devices, and the importance of employing discretion to prevent it from digging itself down into rather perilous drawdown situations. As for testing the impact of discretion on results, of course that is difficult. You can't Monte Carlo that, so it's not feasible to compare the distribution of two sets of results. And as you point out, to compare the position of a single traded path within the distribution of Monte Carlo'd results from testing without discretion doesn't answer the questions: was it luck? can it be consistently repeated? IMO, with TechTrader the discretion and/or slackness has inadvertently done what some kind of switch like an index filter might have done mechanically. The current mechanical entry is not sufficient to keep the system out of an inappropriate market. [/QUOTE]

Verification