Hi folks,
AZZ ..... can you believe, that it has been
over 2 1/2 years, since AZZ made its highest
close for 2003, at 1.38 ...???
Since then, AZZ has drifted down to find
support, one dollar lower than that close
in 2003.
Some will remember our AZZ(AYO) analysis, with
the share price at 30 cents, in October 2000
and the subsequent rally to 1.37 by 21112000,
just a month out from the lows.
That rally was triggered on a longer time cycle
for that year ... looking at subsequent, similar
cycles for AZZ, we can see that they also marked
further lows.
For example, in October 2002, with the price
at 39 cents, we posted our analysis and lucky
enough to get on board, to win good ROI
through the next 9 months ... you can
see that this this range was also $1.oo ...
Soon after, it was on the next major cycle
on 23 October 2003, that the cycle inverted
and instead of a rally, we saw the start of
the subsequent slide, down to recent lows.
----
So where is AZZ, today??
As AZZ has proven to be sensitive to this longer
time cycle and we saw the cycle inversion, at the
2003 highs, we are now looking to the same major
inverted cycle to trigger the next AZZ rally.
Fortunately, 22 May 2006 will see the next major cycle
slot into place and our short-term cycle analysis tells
us, that we should hear some positive news from the AZZ
camp, about Tuesday 23052006 - very timely ...
----
Our technical analysis also shows the price action
on 19052006 gave us an engulfing low candle pattern,
with increased volume, thus confirming the low, in a
recent retracement, as AZZ lifted off its 2006 lows,
at 37.5 cents on 16022006 ..... see chart attached.
Conservative players will feel better, now that
they have seen confirmation of these lows, with
the completion of one price swing .....
Projecting a price target from the 2003-2006
downleg, a 50% retracement would have a target
at 89.5 cents, around 29052007 ... or one year
hence.
Of course, many traders will scalp some profits
in any fast AZZ upmoves, as well.
We should also remember the long-term resistance
and support levels, around 73 and 86 cents, as
AZZ rallies ... 73 cents in particular, has been
very strong resistance for AZZ since January 2004,
with many failed attempts to hold onto a sustained
close above 73 cents.
-----
So, looking ahead, our shorter cycles give us
some key dates for AZZ, on:
22-23052006 ..... significant and positive news???
30052006 ..... positive spotlight on AZZ
06062006 ..... minor ... finances???
08062006 ..... significant and negative news??
12-18062006 ..... flat trading??
16-19062006 ..... 2 cycles - positive move from here??
30063006 ..... negative spotlight on AZZ
03072006 ..... 2 cycles - significant and positive
..... finance news??
03-10072006 ..... strong rally???
26072006 ..... negative cycle ... finances???
01082006 ..... minor and positive
04-07082006 ..... minor
16-17082006 ..... minor and positive news???
21082006 ..... minor and positive - finances???
01092006 ..... significant news???
13092006 ..... minor - finances??
18092006 ..... significant and positive news???
21-22092006 ..... flat trading or pullback???
02102006 ..... positive spotlight on AZZ
05-09102006 ..... significant financial news ... ???
30-31102006 ..... minor & next long cycle = a high ???
More on AZZ, later .....
happy trading
yogi
P.S. ..... holding AZZ