Bargain Hunting Friday

dj_420 · 27 July 2007

nomore4s said:
I tend to agree, but it will depend a bit on what happens o/s tonight, if they tank again we could be in trouble on Monday.

agree, im waiting to see what direction the markets go, could it be a correction? if so i have exited short term plays and holding on to the long term ones.

also have margin loan ready for a correction to pick up again at the bottom.

i would be to concerned about taking leveraged positions at this point in time after the markets look very heady

Spaghetti · 27 July 2007

Hiya Mick

Always in and out of ZFX, have an addiction.

Compass has been on my buy list for a while but I felt no rush to buy, today just impulse bought it. Was always going to buy in anyways, hope the timimg works out ok. Various 12 month forecasts are all excellent so for longer term great but I can get impatient waiting on too many stocks.

Spaghetti · 27 July 2007

I think it will be fine, just a correction. I always ask myself have the stocks gone down because of a good reason. If not, then they will soon bounce back. Unless there are reason I am not aware of. But US mortgages, Aussie interest rates, some overheating etc would suggest to me more money may flow into resource sector. Where else will people put their dollars? Inot mortgages lol.

Mind you my only concern is market sentiment. My theory is worthless unless the market agrees with me.

UPKA · 27 July 2007

Spaghetti said:
I think it will be fine, just a correction. I always ask myself have the stocks gone down because of a good reason. If not, then they will soon bounce back. Unless there are reason I am not aware of. But US mortgages, Aussie interest rates, some overheating etc would suggest to me more money may flow into resource sector. Where else will people put their dollars? Inot mortgages lol.

Mind you my only concern is market sentiment. My theory is worthless unless the market agrees with me.

I think wats more important to us now is not what US market's doing, bt looking at the current exchange rate to USD, and also the metals prices. majority of our market is run by big miners, so metal price and exchange rate will have greater impact on the market and economy than US subprime worry. as long as the east asians (China, Korea and Japan) keep their growth rate up, in long term these short term corrections shouldnt worry us at all. after all the mining boom is still here, and thats wats driving our economic growth at the moment.

doogie_goes_off · 27 July 2007

With the price of lead so good even after a slide I can see why you would have PEM on your list Mick. It has a tendency to bounce enough inside a trading range to make a buck, however I only managed to do this from $4 to nearly $5 once. It's a hard one to pick because of this volatility, if it goes below trading range of about 4.50 now it may be headed down for a bit. You are right though it could be a bargain because based on lead price it should be on the up even if lead stays at 2/3 current price.

Good luck bargain hunters, it's a hard ask without a lead from world markets, could be worth having a spell until mid next week.

Awesomandy · 27 July 2007

UPKA said:
as long as the east asians (China, Korea and Japan) keep their growth rate up, in long term these short term corrections shouldnt worry us at all. after all the mining boom is still here, and thats wats driving our economic growth at the moment.

That would be when the US housing market crashes, brining in negative equity, and drag the economy down, and then the market retreats, recession and job losses come in, and nobody in America can afford to buy anything apart from the pure essentials. Then, the east Asian countries would be making a lot of stuff, with nowhere to sell. This oversupply could only mean 1 thing - the end of the mining boom together with our share market bull.

nomore4s · 27 July 2007

Awesomandy said:
That would be when the US housing market crashes, brining in negative equity, and drag the economy down, and then the market retreats, recession and job losses come in, and nobody in America can afford to buy anything apart from the pure essentials. Then, the east Asian countries would be making a lot of stuff, with nowhere to sell. This oversupply could only mean 1 thing - the end of the mining boom together with our share market bull.

good post, need to remember where these asian countries are getting the money to drive the growth, the US economy is still the major power imo and if it tanks there will be consequences to other countries economies.

Spaghetti · 27 July 2007

The USD impact of profit has worried me for sometime. Not sure it is a factor this week though. Lots of 3rd qtr activities out, haven't heard anything too negative but then I haven't read many. Metal prices have not helped but seem ok today, yo-yo as they do. Not much different from a month ago. Zinc looks great. However if people are negative s/p will go down. The only reason for it atm. panic selling. If we all did that there would be a crash.

doogie_goes_off · 27 July 2007

They do also have to "feed themself". Chinese car ownership is skyrocketing and construction is no all factories for the US it's domestic housing too. Certainly negative equity in America would see waves of worry which are currently a ripple, but thisgs are not quite that flimsy, I am an optimist.

UPKA · 27 July 2007

Awesomandy said:
That would be when the US housing market crashes, brining in negative equity, and drag the economy down, and then the market retreats, recession and job losses come in, and nobody in America can afford to buy anything apart from the pure essentials. Then, the east Asian countries would be making a lot of stuff, with nowhere to sell. This oversupply could only mean 1 thing - the end of the mining boom together with our share market bull.

hahaha i think we had a dedicated thread on this debate. I js think the urbanisation in China alone will keep the mining boom going till after the Olympics at least. rite now its js the weaker investors getting scared n pulling out, im sure u'll find alot of the fund managers and financial planners buying up big today for their clients (I know we have been at our office ).

professor_frink · 27 July 2007

UPKA said:
I think wats more important to us now is not what US market's doing, bt looking at the current exchange rate to USD, and also the metals prices. majority of our market is run by big miners, so metal price and exchange rate will have greater impact on the market and economy than US subprime worry. as long as the east asians (China, Korea and Japan) keep their growth rate up, in long term these short term corrections shouldnt worry us at all. after all the mining boom is still here, and thats wats driving our economic growth at the moment.

If you have a look at the last commodities boom back in the 70's, the world managed quite a decent bear market in the middle of it. If it happened again the resource bulls could be waiting a fair while for prices to recover.

doogie_goes_off · 27 July 2007

Very true professor. Bear markets are hard to pick when you need a trend to confirm what you are doing is right, often by the time you see the trend you should have sold.

Uncle Festivus · 27 July 2007

This is where the term 'Bull Trap' comes in handy. I think there is a big sentiment shift now going on in the US, it's just that we Australians are protected a bit by the commodities spike. Either that or the bargain hunters are too young to have been through a full blown correction.
Try to catch the knife at your peril, especially being a Friday, would you want to be long over the weekend in this market?

nioka · 27 July 2007

Uncle Festivus said:
Try to catch the knife at your peril, especially being a Friday, would you want to be long over the weekend in this market?

Looking back I have noticed that Friday is more likely to be a falling market and Mondays a rising one. I believe that the sentiment in your post is the factor that makes this happen. Mob sentiment in my opinion. Friday is as the post suggests, BARGAIN HUNTING DAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ideaforlife · 27 July 2007

Awesomandy said:
That would be when the US housing market crashes, brining in negative equity, and drag the economy down, and then the market retreats, recession and job losses come in, and nobody in America can afford to buy anything apart from the pure essentials. Then, the east Asian countries would be making a lot of stuff, with nowhere to sell. This oversupply could only mean 1 thing - the end of the mining boom together with our share market bull.

Then the internal demands from China and India will rise and offset the falls from the US. It totally depends on what timeframe and economic region you are looking at. The US economy has been through a number of minor cycles themselves since 2000.

petervan · 27 July 2007

A couple of green shares on the screen today that shows a bit of strength in this market. POLO & EQN . POL continues to look good with the upcoming court case and EQN is now definitly in sight of a takeover.Interesting times for these two

mime · 27 July 2007

I got lucky as majority of my stock is in CTX. I think the Mac bank is looking like a real bargain.

Ken · 27 July 2007

Well if you take a good look at it.

I think Resource stocks have not really come off that much. They are still way above what they were at the start of the year.

Westfield and Banks and other private equities have fallen from highs.

I decided to pick up 400 NAB shares on close.

The dividend is 5% which is pretty good.

I probably made a bit of an error by picking up 100,000 SRZ shares a few days ago but I think they are a good 12 month hold, and you expect days like today within 12 months, so its all part of it. Nothing chages for SRZ they start drilling at gold fingers, so it was a positive day in my eyes for SRZ. I picked up a few at 27 cents... couldnt get hit at bottom.

I will buy SRZ under 30 cents untill the sun doesnt come up again.

wigaz · 27 July 2007

Hey everyone,
Very interesting ideas floating around here. Most seem well researched and make sense to me. In my VERY humble opinion I cannot help but feel that this "correction" is nothing more than a blip on the radar. My only real reason for this is that many ppl have been waiting for this "correction". The DOW and S&P500 are down a sizable amount and I believe his gives a good "excuse" for this mass off selling.

The AUD/USD has taken a battering today and I would expect this to improve exports from Oz to the US. Also the US is not the only resource consumer (I'm thinking Japan, China, Europe).

This said I'm not doing anything till things cool down and stabilise. I'm a gambling man (if I had some money spare) and would like to take a long position (maybe a CFD or margin loan) on the ASX200, depending obviously on what happens in the US tonight.

Like I said I am a simple investor in a very complex market and may be a mile off course here in my analysis. Anyway I am just curious to see how everyone else feels.

Cheers
W

Spaghetti · 27 July 2007

Had VPE on my watchlist for bout a week? or so. Read somewhere, I think a speculative buy. You know sometimes you can never remember why you added a stock to a watchlist (or is that just me).??

Anyway up 5.4% today with much higher volume than normal. Usually up and down 2.5% with boring regularity. I know only a tad over one mil, but compared to normal, high volume lol. Maybe worth a look see. Not that it is a bargain but more because it bucked the trend without obvious day trading. I am going to read up more about it this weekend.

Meanwhile my new CMR shares went lower this arvo but all in all I dont feel panic. Except I think others are. Some resource stocks have had a full year run in a few months so a correction is healthy but geez some are so undervalued and still take a hammering. Almost is ....if I don't sell prices will drop....., so everyone sells and of course the price drops.

Bargain Hunting Friday

dj_420

Spaghetti

Spaghetti

UPKA

Let the money work for you!

doogie_goes_off

disbelieve if you can

Awesomandy

nomore4s

Commonsense isn't that common

Spaghetti

doogie_goes_off

disbelieve if you can

UPKA

Let the money work for you!

professor_frink

Moderator

doogie_goes_off

disbelieve if you can

Uncle Festivus

nioka

ideaforlife

petervan

mime

Ken

wigaz

Spaghetti

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